{"id":474398,"date":"2026-05-08T07:37:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T07:37:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/474398\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T07:37:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T07:37:10","slug":"a-government-candidate-has-not-won-a-byelection-since-2014-that-may-be-about-to-change-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/474398\/","title":{"rendered":"A Government candidate has not won a byelection since 2014. That may be about to change \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thursday\u2019s Irish Times\/TG4\/Ipsos B&A poll shows a three-horse race among the early front-runners in the Galway West byelection race.<\/p>\n

Fine Gael<\/a>\u2019s Se\u00e1n Kyne attracts 17 per cent of the first-preference votes and is closely followed by Independent Ireland<\/a>\u2019s Noel Thomas on 16 per cent and Labour\u2019s Helen Ogbu on 12 per cent.<\/p>\n

Interviewing for Thursday\u2019s poll was carried out by telephone between Friday, May 1st and Tuesday, May 5th among a random sample of 530 eligible voters. The estimated margin of error is around plus or minus four percentage points.<\/p>\n

A total of 17 candidates are contesting the seat vacated by Catherine Connolly<\/a> following her victory in the presidential election. A busy fortnight of campaigning lies ahead.<\/p>\n

The issues, the candidates, the likely outcome from our Inside Politics team in 45 seconds
\nVideo: Alyson Henry <\/p>\n

Kyne is quick off the mark with 17 per cent support, up from the 9 per cent first-preference vote he won in the 2024 general election. <\/p>\n

His party colleague Hildegarde Naughton<\/a>, who went on to secure a seat in Galway West in 2024, registered at 10 per cent, so the combined Fine Gael vote in 2024 (19 per cent) is available for Kyne in this byelection.<\/p>\n

Kyne is hugely popular among voters aged 65 and older, garnering 37 per cent support among this cohort. This may prove to be advantageous on election day, with this group among the most likely to turn out to vote. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth noting that a Government candidate has not won a byelection since 2014. <\/p>\n

Thomas of Independent Ireland also has early momentum, polling at 16 per cent. His appeal is broadly based across all age groups and he is the preferred candidate among working-class voters at 20 per cent.<\/p>\n

Thomas is relatively weaker in Galway city, on 10 per cent, and trailing Kyne (16 per cent) and Ogbu (15 per cent). A strong performance in the city is almost essential to winning Galway West.<\/p>\n

\"SeánSe\u00e1n Kyne, Fine Gael\u2019s candidate in the Galway West byelection, near the Spanish Arch on the banks of the river Corrib in Galway in April. Photograph: Alan Betson\/The Irish Times<\/p>\n

Ogbu is polling strongly at 12 per cent, a leap from the 3 per cent she won in the 2024 general election and well ahead of Labour\u2019s national standing. <\/p>\n

Ogbu is the preferred candidate among 18 to 24 year-olds (on 21 per cent) and ranks second among middle-class voters (on 16 per cent), just behind Kyne (18 per cent). Mobilising young voters on polling day will be key to her success.<\/p>\n

A further six candidates register a first-preference vote ranging from 6 per cent to 9 per cent.<\/p>\n

M\u00edde Nic Fhionnlaoich (Social Democrats) is on 9 per cent, Cillian Keane (Fianna F\u00e1il) is on 8 per cent, Mark Lohan (Sinn F\u00e9in) and Mike Cubbard (Independent) both register at 7 per cent, followed by Niall Murphy (Green Party) and Thomas Welby (Independent) on 6 per cent.<\/p>\n

Galway West voting patterns are not reflective of the national picture, with Fianna F\u00e1il and Sinn F\u00e9in noticeably falling short of expectations. <\/p>\n

Sinn F\u00e9in typically relies on young people and working-class voters to shore up their support, but neither appear at this stage to be getting behind Mark Lohan. <\/p>\n

Fianna F\u00e1il\u2019s Cillian Keane is also polling well below his party\u2019s national poll standing. Instead, voters are leaning towards Independents and smaller parties at this stage in the race. <\/p>\n

Further down the rankings are Orla Nugent (Aont\u00fa) on 4 per cent, Sheila Garrity (Independent) on 3 per cent, Denman Rooke (People Before Profit \u2013 Solidarity) on 2 per cent and AJ Cahill (The Irish People), Michael Ryan (Independent) and John O\u2019Leary (Independent), who are all on 1 per cent. <\/p>\n

Given that the quota for a byelection is 50 per cent of the vote plus one, transfers are going to play an important role.<\/p>\n

Voters in Thursday\u2019s poll were asked to provide their second-preference voting intention, although we should be mindful that polls are very limited in how much they can tell us about how transfers will shape the outcome of an election.<\/p>\n

Kyne is not nearly as transfer unfriendly as Government candidates sometimes are, capturing 15 per cent of the second-preference vote. <\/p>\n

Welby (Independent) on 14 per cent and Ogbu (Labour) on 11 per cent are also likely to benefit from transfers as the count progresses. Of course, the extent to which candidates benefit from transfers depends on how long they can stay in the race.<\/p>\n

In analysing Thursday\u2019s poll results, it\u2019s important to remember that they represent a snapshot in time. With two weeks of campaigning left, the landscape can shift, especially in byelections, as parties intensify their efforts, name recognition grows and narratives change. <\/p>\n

Turnout will also be key, especially if some age cohorts decide to stay at home. <\/p>\n

Aisling Corcoran is a director of Ipsos B&A<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Thursday\u2019s Irish Times\/TG4\/Ipsos B&A poll shows a three-horse race among the early front-runners in the Galway West byelection…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":474399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[9,10,18,13,14,4771,553,167920,6,29353,19,7062,17,38418,9171,11,12,15,16,5,47,7,8],"class_list":{"0":"post-474398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ireland","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breakingnews","10":"tag-eire","11":"tag-featured-news","12":"tag-featurednews","13":"tag-fianna-fail","14":"tag-fine-gael","15":"tag-galway-west-constituency","16":"tag-headlines","17":"tag-hildegarde-naughton","18":"tag-ie","19":"tag-independent-ireland","20":"tag-ireland","21":"tag-irish-times-poll","22":"tag-labour-party","23":"tag-latest-news","24":"tag-latestnews","25":"tag-main-news","26":"tag-mainnews","27":"tag-news","28":"tag-sinn-fein","29":"tag-top-stories","30":"tag-topstories"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116537817328856177","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=474398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/474398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/474399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=474398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=474398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=474398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}