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The northern lights fill the sky with green ribbons of electrical charged particles over the barn and pastures at Greaney’s Turkey Farm in Mercer, Maine on May 11, 2024. The northern lights may be visible overnight on Friday, May 15, through Saturday, May 16, after a large coronal hole opened up on the sun, super-charging the solar wind. (Photo by Michael Seamans\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n
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The northern lights<\/a> may be visible overnight on Thursday, May 14, though Friday, May 15, from northern U.S. states and Canada after forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a G1 geomagnetic storm. With a new moon coming on Saturday, May 16, sky conditions are perfect for even faint aurora to be seen.<\/p>\n Northern Lights Forecast: Where And When<\/p>\n It comes in the wake of a more active sun and a large hole in the sun\u2019s corona, its outer atmosphere, according to Spaceweather.com<\/a>. It could cause aurora to be seen \u2014 likely on the northern horizon \u2014 with the forecast<\/a> indicating between 10:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday, May 14, through 1:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, May 15, as the time when a display is most likely above northern U.S. states.<\/p>\n States with potential northern lights in a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm include Alaska and (northerly parts of) Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine.<\/p>\n If a G2-class geomagnetic storm erupts, aurora may be viewable from states farther south, such as Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.<\/p>\n Northern Lights Alert: Coronal Hole<\/p>\n Appearing as dark areas in extreme ultraviolet and X-ray images from NASA\u2019s Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft, a coronal hole allows the solar wind (the stream of charged particles coming from the sun) to escape more easily into space. It can ultimately cause a geomagnetic storm and an aurora on Earth when charged particles interact with Earth\u2019s magnetic field. They then accelerate down its magnetic field lines at the north and south poles to create ovals of green and red.<\/p>\n Northern Lights Alert: Solar Activity<\/p>\n Solar activity has been at low levels for some weeks, but on May 7, an M2-class solar flare heralded the arrival of an active sunspot. A solar flare \u2014 an eruption of electromagnetic radiation \u2014 is caused by twisted magnetic fields, typically above sunspots \u2014 cooler, darker regions of the sun\u2019s surface that form when clumps of its magnetic field well up from deep within the sun. In the wake of the May 7 flare came several coronal mass ejections, clouds of charged particles that \u2014 if Earth-directed \u2014 can cause geomagnetic storms.<\/p>\n Northern Lights Alert: Forecasting Aurora<\/p>\n The sun\u2019s roughly 27-day rotation is a critical factor for predicting Northern Lights, as it brings active, aurora-producing sunspot regions back into view from Earth. That\u2019s the base for a long-term forecast<\/a> by NOAA\u2019s Space Weather Prediction Center, the latest of which reads: \u201cGeomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)geomagnetic storm levels on 15-17 May. Active levels are also likely on 18 May, 23 May, and 27 May as active regions of the sun turn to face Earth.<\/p>\n However, calculating whether a CME is Earth-bound, and when it will arrive, can only be done accurately when the CME’s effect on the solar wind \u2014 the stream of charged particles released from the sun that travels in all directions in the solar system \u2014 is measured by NOAA\u2019s DSCOVR satellite, which orbits the sun a million miles from Earth. DSCOVR measures the solar wind\u2019s speed and magnetic intensity, which is critical in calculating how it is about to change. Only then can an aurora display be accurately forecast by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, but there’s not much warning \u2014 just 30 minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n Northern Lights Forecast: Latest Updates<\/p>\n Aurora-chasers frequently use the Kp index to predict the intensity of a geomagnetic storm, but for aurora displays, the interplanetary magnetic field\u2019s Bz component is more important. Bz determines how easily solar energy enters Earth\u2019s magnetosphere. When Bz points north, Earth\u2019s field resists it; when Bz swings south, the two fields connect, allowing plasma to stream in. A sustained southward Bz of \u22125 nT or stronger usually signals an imminent display of aurora.<\/p>\n