{"id":484796,"date":"2026-05-14T19:23:20","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T19:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/484796\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T19:23:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T19:23:20","slug":"worst-case-scenarios-for-el-nino-are-literally-off-the-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/484796\/","title":{"rendered":"Worst-Case Scenarios for El Ni\u00f1o Are Literally Off the Charts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chances of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o are rising<\/a> as several climate models predict off-the-charts increases in Pacific sea surface temperatures by the fall. Meteorologists are growing increasingly concerned about what this could mean for global temperatures, extreme weather, and food security.<\/p>\n

The latest projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, visualized in the chart below, all show sea surface temperatures rising at least 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) above average by November. Some shoot over the top of the Y-axis, predicting temperature increases of more than 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C) by that month. That\u2019s well into super El Ni\u00f1o territory.<\/p>\n

Looking at the graphic below and seeing the temperature values bleed over the top, I\u2019m prompted to paraphrase from Jaws: Hey NOAA\u2014you\u2019re gonna need a bigger chart.<\/p>\n

\"Nino3.4An ensemble forecast for El Ni\u00f1o conditions through January 2027. Each line represents a different model\u2019s projection, charting how high Pacific sea surface temperatures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region could rise above average over time. \u00a9 NOAA\/NWS\/NCEP\/CPC <\/p>\n

By comparison, the latest ensemble forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is less damning, but still concerning. This chart shows several models approaching a temperature increase of 7.2 degrees F (4 degrees C) by November, with the most extreme projection topping out at about 6.8 degrees F (3.8 degrees C). That\u2019s still way above<\/a> the threshold for a very strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\"EcmwfAn ensemble forecast for El Ni\u00f1o conditions through November 2026. Each line represents a different model\u2019s projection, charting how high Pacific sea surface temperatures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region could rise above average over time. \u00a9 ECMWF <\/p>\n

Meteorologists are already comparing this developing event to the El Ni\u00f1o of 1877, when Pacific sea surface temperatures rose<\/a> approximately 6.3 degrees F (3.5 degrees C) above average at their peak. It played a key role in fueling<\/a> persistent, severe droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, leading to widespread crop failure and a global famine that killed more than 50 million people. That was<\/a> roughly 3.5% of the global population at the time.<\/p>\n

Another global catastrophe? <\/p>\n

As for whether this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o could lead to a similar catastrophe, it\u2019s highly unlikely. \u201cThe devastating losses associated with the super El Ni\u00f1o of 1877 to 1878 aren\u2019t likely to repeat today <\/b>because the social, political and economic factors that exacerbated the effects don\u2019t currently exist,\u201d meteorologist Ben Noll wrote<\/a> for the Washington Post.<\/p>\n

He notes, however, that a severe event could still significantly affect the global food system. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the projected El Ni\u00f1o will likely lead<\/a> to asymmetric impacts, with drought conditions reducing corn, rice, and wheat production across Asia and Australia while enhanced precipitation boosts soybean production in the Americas.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs the world forges through geopolitical upheaval, a prospective \u2018super\u2019 El-Ni\u00f1o, albeit a non-standardized classification, threatens to further destabilize global supply chain,\u201d the UNDRR states. \u201cThe looming El Ni\u00f1o will likely coincide with conflict-induced trade restrictions in the Middle East, which have already stranded maritime shipments, driven transpacific container rates 40 percent above pre-crisis levels, and restricted critical urea and phosphorus fertilizer exports.\u201d<\/p>\n

Researchers estimate<\/a> that the last super El Ni\u00f1o, which occurred from 2015 to 2016, ultimately cost the global economy $3.9 trillion.<\/p>\n

If this event turns out to be as severe as forecasts suggest, we could be looking at similar losses. A super El Ni\u00f1o could also push global temperatures to new heights, potentially making<\/a> 2027 the warmest year on record. All that extra atmospheric heat will intensify extreme weather across the globe<\/a>, exacerbating droughts, floods, tropical storms, wildfires, and other disasters.<\/p>\n

The full intensity of this growing El Ni\u00f1o remains uncertain, for now. But as models increasingly point to a potentially historic event, world leaders should prepare for weather impacts and economic instability that may persist long after Pacific sea surface temperatures return to normal<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Chances of a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o are rising as several climate models predict off-the-charts increases in Pacific sea…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":484797,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[269],"tags":[3898,18,440,1954,19,17,133227,32978,133],"class_list":{"0":"post-484796","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-climate","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-extreme-weather","12":"tag-ie","13":"tag-ireland","14":"tag-meteorology","15":"tag-pacific-ocean","16":"tag-science"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116574566127624097","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=484796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/484796\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/484797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=484796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=484796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=484796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}