Glen Murphy – 37 minutes ago<\/p>\n
Dublin Central: As it stands<\/p>\n
![\"Daniel](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2QWZJLBHS5EFBLNVAATOA5DVWY.JPG\")
Daniel Ennis with his fiance Chloe (both centre) in the RDS on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson<\/p>\n
As counting continues in the RDS, Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis<\/b> appears to be on track to take the vacant Dublin Central<\/b> seat.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe want to represent everybody who calls Dublin Central home no matter their background,\u201d Ennis said on arrival in the RDS.<\/p>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s Janice Boylan<\/b> tallied at 17.8 per cent of the vote earlier on Saturday, second to Ennis on 19.6 per cent but ahead of veteran criminal and independent candidate Gerry Hutch<\/b> on 11.7 per cent in third and the Green Party\u2019s Janet Horner on 11.6 per cent in fourth.<\/p>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il<\/b> are on course for their worst ever performance in an election, with candidate John Stephens coming in towards the back of the pack at 4.1 per cent.<\/p>\n
Predictions of Hutch being an \u201celectoral force to be reckoned with\u201d have not panned out, Labour\u2019s sitting TD for the constituency Marie Sherlock<\/b> said.<\/p>\n
Fine Gael can win back Donohoe\u2019s seat, says McAdamFine Gael candidate Ray McAdam conceded that he would not win his colleagues Paschal O’Donohue former seat. Video: Enda O’Dowd <\/p>\n
Fine Gael candidate for Dublin Central Ray McAdam has said the party can win back the seat formerly held by Paschal Donohoe in the constituency. <\/p>\n
From Jack Horgan-Jones: With the Social Democrat councillor Daniel Ennis primed to win the seat vacated by Donohoe, McAdam blamed the challenges of incumbency as his party faces losing the seat held by former minister for finance Paschal Donohoe since 2011. <\/p>\n
McAdam, who tallies suggest has won significantly fewer votes than Donohoe\u2019s last outing in the general election, told reporters at the RDS count centre: \u201cWe are a party in our fourth term in office, that is a challenge \u2013 ultimately that is the biggest challenge. We are a party that has been in Government now since 2011 and we could not have left more on the pitch\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a byelection, it\u2019s not a general election. People decided to go the way they have I respect that, that is democracy. The great thing is people came out and voted yesterday. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we will do in Fine Gael across Dublin Central is to regroup, rebuild and we will come back stronger,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Ennis: \u2018We want to represent everybody\u2019<\/p>\n
\u201cWe didn\u2019t bend on who we were,\u201d Daniel Ennis said when asked why he felt he got the votes above other Dublin Central candidates.<\/p>\n
Marie O\u2019Halloran writes: The Social Democrats councillor said, \u201cwe met people where they were, agree or disagree\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe want to represent everybody who calls Dublin Central home no matter their background, their social standing. It\u2019s meeting people where they are and not judging\u201d, and \u201ctreating people with respect\u201d.<\/p>\n
The response on the doorsteps was \u201camazing\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery canvas was literally better than the last.\u201d He said there was a lot of online hate but \u201cit bounces off me\u201d. He said \u201cthey had the amazing team\u201d and had 100 people out on different campuses a week\u201d.<\/p>\n
Gannon as sitting Dublin Central TD said he was not worried about his seat for the general election with two Social Democrats in the constituency.<\/p>\n
\u201cI want to build a big, brilliant party in the Social Democrats and in doing that we need to find big, brilliant people and in Daniel, we have one of those.\u201d<\/p>\n
On the question of whether there were two seats for the party in the constituency he said; \u201cI think the Social Democrats in Dublin Central, we\u2019ve always been a little underestimated.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said in each election \u201cwe\u2019ve increased our vote share. Over the next three years \u201cyou\u2019re going to have two people working together, actually giving the best representation Dublin Central has seen for a very, very long time.\u201d<\/p>\n
They had \u201calways been competitive\u201d with each other \u201cand that\u2019s not going to change but the beneficiaries will be the people of Dublin Central.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked about competition with Sinn F\u00e9in, Cairns said: \u201cI think it\u2019s safe to say that people know where they stand with the Social Democrats. We don\u2019t equivocate on issues, and I think that that stands to us\u201d. <\/p>\n
In all elections \u201cwe\u2019ve gone from strength and strength\u201d, she added.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs for Sinn F\u00e9in and their position on things that\u2019s a matter for them. I think they need to decide where they stand\u201d as a party.<\/p>\n
Social Democrats may have two seats in same constituency for first time![\"Daniel](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/US6SARUZBJGBNAQ5TJIJIZXACQ.JPG\")
Daniel Ennis with his fiance Chloe in the RDS. Photograph: Alan Betson<\/p>\n
Social Democrats candidate Cllr Daniel Ennis arrived at the RDS with his fiance Chloe, party leader Holly Cairns, sitting Dublin Central TD Gary Gannon and other party TDs to sustained applause and cheers.<\/p>\n
From Marie O\u2019Halloran: A guard of honour of party supporters formed to greet them as they arrived for a media \u201cdoorstep\u201d at the Dublin Central count centre.<\/p>\n
He acknowledged being \u201ca bit overwhelmed\u201d as he faced the media.<\/p>\n
Cairns described Ennis\u2019s expected victory as a \u201creally proud day for the party. It\u2019s the first time we\u2019ve had two seats in a constituency\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a testament, of course, to Dan as an incredible candidate, his incredible campaign, also to the work that Gary\u2019s done in terms of building our branches in Dublin Central and the support that we have there.\u201d<\/p>\n
She said theirs was a \u201chugely positive campaign \u2013 the message of hope and of inclusion and it really clearly resonated with voters in Dublin Central and we are just so immensely proud of him, of Gary, of all of the campaign team in Dublin Central\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt feels like an emotional day,\u201d and it was \u201camazing\u201d to see that voters looking for an alternative were looking to the Social Democrats, she said.<\/p>\n
Winning an 11th seat will mean the Social Democrats will have improved speaking rights over Labour and will speak ahead of them in the D\u00e1il.<\/p>\n
The party leader said \u201cthe speaking order should represent the size of the party and it makes sense that that would happen\u201d.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Dea says she is \u2018satisfied\u2019 with byelection performance<\/p>\n
Labour\u2019s candidate Ruth O\u2019Dea has said she is \u201csatisfied\u201d with her performance in the Dublin Central race.<\/p>\n
Jack Horgan-Jones writes: She also suggested a formal transfer pact between parties on the left should be considered going forward.<\/p>\n
She said there was a \u201cstrong message being sent to the Government that they\u2019re not delivering\u201d.<\/p>\n
She said parties on the left \u201care stronger together than we are apart, and we need to unite more, definitely.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we do that, like we did on the [President Catherine] Connolly campaign, we\u2019re a force to be reckoned with.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked if this should extend to a formal transfer pact she said; \u201cThere\u2019s a case for it, absolutely\u201d. <\/p>\n
Sherlock, said she took \u201cgreat hope\u201d from the result in Dublin Central and extended her congratulations to Daniel Ennis, the Social Democrats councillor who looks highly likely to take the seat.<\/p>\n
Dublin Central front-runner Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats has arrived at the byelection count centre in the RDS.<\/p>\n
![\"Social](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/4B73DJBQTZDBRK6SGJTFTB4GGA.JPG\")
Social Democrat candidate Daniel Ennis (centre) with party leader Holly Cairns and TD Gary Gannon arriving at the RDS count centre on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson <\/p>\n
Glen Murphy – 2 hours ago<\/p>\n
Electoral predictions of Hutch have not panned out, says Sherlock![\"Labour's](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/ILA5TE7ATNBXRJNECWUHHTUIYU.JPG\")
Labour’s Dublin Central candidate Ruth O’Dea (left) with TD Marie Sherlock at the RDS on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson<\/p>\n
Predictions of veteran criminal and independent candidate Gerry Hutch being an \u201celectoral force to be reckoned with\u201d have not panned out, Labour\u2019s sitting TD for Dublin Central has said.<\/p>\n
More from Jack Horgan-Jones: Speaking at the RDS count centre on Saturday, Marie Sherlock said the Hutch vote had \u201cslipped\u201d amid signs that his first preference vote is likely to decline from the 2024 general election \u2013 although he seems likely to grow his share of the first preference vote based on tallies from earlier in the day. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe heard a lot about Gerard Hutch during the election, we have seen that his vote has slipped and I think that speaks volumes about peoples\u2019 faith in Gerard Hutch being that positive progressive voice for Dublin Central.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis playing up of him as a major electoral force to be reckoned with has not proved correct today.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sherlock reeled Hutch in during a close count in the race to fill the fourth seat in Dublin Central in the general election of 2024. <\/p>\n
She said Independent councillor Malachy Steenson\u2019s increased vote is \u201cno surprise\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have seen how the far right have tried to divide, have tried to sow bitterness and resentment on the ground,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn other parties on the left, some parties, not all, across the left, we are doing our absolute utmost to ensure that we bring that positive vision to people,\u201d she said, arguing that people can be brought around by the argument that \u201cit is the Government failing them, not migrants\u201d.<\/p>\n
Glen Murphy – 2 hours ago<\/p>\n
Listen: Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties<\/p>\n
A picture is emerging in the byelection counts. Hugh is joined on the latest Inside Politics<\/a> podcast by Pat Leahy, Harry McGee and Jack Horgan-Jones to discuss what we have learned so far.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 2 hours ago<\/p>\n Martin\u2019s leadership \u2018absolutely not\u2019 in question, says O\u2019Brien<\/p>\n Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin\u2019s leadership of Fianna F\u00e1il is \u201cabsolutely not\u201d in question after disappointing showings in byelection tallies, especially in Dublin Central, Minister for Transport Darragh O\u2019Brien has said. <\/p>\n More from Jack Horgan-Jones in the RDS: O\u2019Brien dismissed questions about Martin\u2019s future, saying: \u201cSince after the 2020 general election I was asked would Miche\u00e1l lead us into the general election … Not only did he do that he came back returned as Taoiseach, with the largest party in D\u00e1il \u00c9ireann.\u201d<\/p>\n O\u2019Brien said he wouldn\u2019t try to \u201csugarcoat\u201d the party\u2019s result in the race to fill the seat vacated by his former cabinet colleague Paschal Donohoe, with Fianna F\u00e1il candidate John Stephens set to finish well adrift of the leaders as tallies place him on only slightly more than 4 per cent of the vote.<\/p>\n \u201cWe knew the challenge that we would have in this constituency, we\u2019ve one councillor, we haven\u2019t won a D\u00e1il seat here since 2007 \u2013 that means we\u2019ll redouble our efforts to rebuild on the ground in Dublin Central,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe result, I\u2019m not going to sugar coat it, of course we\u2019re disappointed with the vote, that\u2019s nothing to do with our candidate <\/p>\n \u201cIt was potentially down to the fact that the groundwork potentially over the course of the last number of years hasn\u2019t been as it should have been.\u201d<\/p>\n Asked whether he would one day like to lead Fianna F\u00e1il, O\u2019Brien sidestepped the question saying he didn\u2019t deal in hypotheticals and was focused on his work as a minister. <\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve a job of work to do, we\u2019ve about 3\u00bd years remaining in this Government\u2019s term, to deliver across housing, to deliver across jobs, health and education, the areas we\u2019re focused on,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 2 hours ago<\/p>\n \u2018Work needs to be done\u2019, says Fianna F\u00e1il\u2019s O\u2019Brien<\/p>\n Minister for Transport and Fianna F\u00e1il director of elections Darragh O\u2019Brien has been speaking to the media in the RDS.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m not going to sugar coat it\u201d – Minister for Transport and Fianna F\u00e1il director of elections in Dublin Central Darragh O\u2019Brien on a bad day for the party in the constituency pic.twitter.com\/Hy3o0Vp4dm<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Jack Horgan-Jones (@JackHoJo) May 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Glen Murphy – 2 hours ago<\/p>\n \u2018Today isn\u2019t our day\u2019, says McDonald<\/p>\n Over in the west, Sinn F\u00e9in leader Mary Lou McDonald told the media \u201ctoday isn\u2019t our day\u201d in the Galway West byelection<\/a>. <\/p>\n Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald speaks to the press at the count centre at the Lawn and Tennis Club in Salthill. Video: Chris Maddaloni <\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 3 hours ago<\/p>\n Horner: \u2018We have to focus on the positive\u2019<\/p>\n Green candidate and councillor Janet Horner expressed her frustration about the media focus on Independent candidate Gerry Hutch and the view that created of Dublin Central as a constituency.<\/p>\n From Marie O\u2019Halloran in the count centre: Arriving to applause from her colleagues at the RDS count she said the party had shown a strong performance because \u201cpeople wanted to see Greens strongly represent this constituency again\u201d. Sitting Green TD Neasa Houricane lost her seat in the 2024 general election, as did all bar party leader Roderic O\u2019Gorman.<\/p>\n The party may not have made it this time but would be working hard for a seat next time, she said. In the final tally Horner came in just 0.1 per cent behind Hutch, who was on 11.7 per cent.<\/p>\n Horner said: \u201cThe frustration I\u2019ve had from the outset and since the 2024 general election is how much the narrative [has been] around Hutch. That\u2019s been behind this idea of what Dublin Central is and this had led the media conversation. <\/p>\n \u201cSo, for the most part I tried really hard not to let him set the tone of the conversation of what we were talking to people about.\u201d<\/p>\n She added: \u201cBut the electorate need to hear from time to time that there is a strong and firm rejection of the type of divisive politics that comes from the candidate.<\/p>\n Horner said she \u201cstepped up\u201d and \u201cfirmly rejected the type of politics that has been offered by people who had been capitalising on a deep and reasonable and rational frustration that so many people have\u201d.<\/p>\n She said those people tried \u201cto capitalise on that to drive further division and to promote their own political career but not actually offering any action\u201d.<\/p>\n It showed and was perpetuating a \u201cnarrow stereotype\u201d of a \u201cwonderful, vibrant Dublin Central\u201d.<\/p>\n It was \u201cnecessary not to let the most negative figures in every particular election drive the narrative\u201d. <\/p>\n \u201cWe have to focus on the positive. We have to deal with the real issues in our community and positively engage,\u201d she said, instead of \u201cjust with anger\u201d.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 3 hours ago<\/p>\n \u2018I tried not to let Hutch set the tone\u2019<\/p>\n \u2018We\u2019ve had a really good day\u2019: Green Party candidate Janet Horner said in the RDS with regard to her byelection campaign in Dublin Central.<\/p>\n Green Party candidate for Dublin Central Janet Horner said the party’s vote in the constituency was above what the party achieved in 2019 <\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 3 hours ago<\/p>\n More candidates have been arriving at the Dublin Central count centre in the RDS including the Green Party\u2019s Janet Horner and People Before Profit\u2019s Eoghan \u00d3 Ceannabh\u00e1in.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 4 hours ago<\/p>\n Tally counters are looking at second-preference votes in Dublin Central. <\/p>\n From Marie O\u2019Halloran in the RDS: A sample of 250 of Gerry Hutch\u2019s ballots showed 47 per cent going to Sinn F\u00e9in candidate Janice Boylan, 15.6 per cent going to the Social Democrats\u2019 Daniel Ennis and 38 per cent non-transferable.<\/p>\n Based on that tally, says one Sinn F\u00e9in analyst, \u201cthe final destination between Ennis and Boylan would effectively favour Boylan by about 900 votes\u201d.<\/p>\n Looking out to the final count, when Sinn F\u00e9in expects Hutch to be the last candidate eliminated, Ennis needs to be about 1,000 votes ahead. If the gap were smaller than 900, Boylan would win but based on the first tally the Social Democrats are already about 500 votes ahead.<\/p>\n Ennis is expected to keep getting more votes through transfers as the lower candidates are excluded and the Sinn F\u00e9in tally expert reckons Ennis\u2019s lead will be above 1,000.<\/p>\n A Social Democrats tallyman looking at Boylan\u2019s second preferences noted a big change from previous elections. Previously many Sinn F\u00e9in voters voted 1, 2 for their candidates and mostly stopped after that, he said. <\/p>\n This time around they are voting farther down the ballot paper and transferring. Based on one sample of about 200 ballots \u2013 but this was only one sample \u2013 the second places favoured Ennis, followed by Hutch, then the Green\u2019s Janet Horner and People Before Profit\u2019s Eoghan \u00d3 Ceannabh\u00e1in.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 4 hours ago<\/p>\n Steenson doubles share of vote from 2024<\/p>\n Cllr Malachy Steenson has arrived at the Dublin Central count centre in the RDS.<\/p>\n The anti-immigrant Independent expressed frustrations around the media and the coverage of fellow candidate Gerry Hutch.<\/p>\n Earlier this afternoon, Steenson\u2019s share of the vote had almost doubled since 2024. He was sitting on 9.5 per cent in the tally, up from 4.89 per cent two years ago.<\/p>\n Independent Councillor Malachy Steenson doubled his vote in Dublin Central but expressed his frustrations around the media and the coverage of Gerard Hutch. <\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 4 hours ago<\/p>\n Ennis emerging as victor in battleground areas<\/p>\n The tally data has been crunched by the folks over at Ireland Votes<\/a>. <\/p>\n From the Jack Horgan-Jones: Looking at the ward-level data, there\u2019s a really clear picture emerging of Ennis prevailing anywhere that might have been a battleground, with Hutch storming the northeast inner city, where Steenson also polled well. <\/p>\n In the areas around the Rotunda and Temple Street Hospitals, taking in the stretch east of O\u2019Connell Street and down to the Liffey, Hutch beat Boylan at a canter, taking in more than 40 per cent of the first-preference vote tallied in North Dock C, for example, where he and Steenson shared almost 65 per cent of ballots tallied. It was a similar story in Mountjoy A, where the Sean McDermott Street flats are \u2013 they took more than 70 per cent combined here. <\/p>\n Sinn F\u00e9in are only prevailing in the tallies in the western part of the inner city, coming out on top in Inns Quay C and Aran Quay C, which take in Smithfield and the areas around it. <\/p>\n But in the rapidly gentrifying inner suburbs around Oxmantown, Grangegorman and Stoneybatter, it all swung towards Ennis \u2013 with Boylan prevailing only in Arran Quay D, which is home to O\u2019Devaney Gardens, where she originally comes from.<\/p>\n Boylan also took all of Cabra West, and a slice of Cabra East which neighbours Mary Lou McDonald\u2019s constituency office \u2013 but apart from that the map turns almost completely purple: Cabra East A, which takes in large swathes of Phibsborough and the housing estates to the west of Glasnevin cemetery, swung heavily for Ennis, the Greens\u2019 Janet Horner and Fine Gael\u2019s Ray McAdam. <\/p>\n And as you continue around that arc of the more middle-class areas of Glasnevin and Drumcondra, it is Ennis all the way. In the tally data, he\u2019s also prevailing in Ballybough and East Wall. <\/p>\n A pocket of the inner suburbs is given over to Janet Horner, who eclipsed Ennis in the tally in Inns Quay A \u2013 which takes in the areas around the Mater hospital, edging up towards Phibsborough.<\/p>\n Glen Murphy – 4 hours ago<\/p>\n Dublin Central at a glance<\/p>\n Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones reports from the RDS, where, according to tallies, Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats looks set to top the poll in the Dublin Central byelection. <\/p>\n Video: Enda O\u2019Dowd<\/p>\n Jack Horgan-Jones reports from the RDS where according to tallies Daniel Ennis looks set to top the poll in the Dublin Central byelection. Video: Enda O’Dowd <\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 5 hours ago<\/p>\n If the first count reflects the tally tabulation, on 4.1%, this will be Fianna F\u00e1il’s worst ever election performance, beating their record low seen at the Dublin Bay South by-election in 2021.#ByElection26<\/a> https:\/\/t.co\/JgZcJOToPp<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) May 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Sarah Burns – 6 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 6 hours ago<\/p>\n Social Democrat Daniel Ennis likely to top poll, according to tally<\/p>\n We have a full tally in Dublin Central \u2013 and on these numbers, there looks to be a clear winner \u2013 Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats, reports Political <\/b>Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones<\/b>.<\/p>\n Dublin city councillor Ennis looks like topping the poll, a major victory for the party, which was expected to poll strongly \u2013 but not to eclipse Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s candidate Janice Boylan in the home constituency of that party\u2019s leader Mary Lou McDonald. <\/p>\n The final tally has Ennis on 19.5 per cent of first-preference votes, ahead of Boylan on 17.8 per cent. <\/p>\n Anything less than a seismic upset would see the seat going to Ennis if the count reflects the unofficial tally undertaken by the combined parties in the RDS. <\/p>\n He is expected to be a transfer magnet to the extent that he would have probably overhauled Boylan unless she had a massive lead. If he\u2019s out in front and transfers from the other left parties pan out as expected, then it\u2019s all over bar the shouting in the race for Paschal Donohoe\u2019s former seat. <\/p>\n On these numbers, Boylan will underperform the Sinn F\u00e9in 2024 performance badly, when the party took 23.34 per cent of first-preference votes between Boylan and party leader Mary Lou McDonald.<\/p>\n That, obviously, would be very bad news for McDonald, who will doubtlessly face renewed scrutiny of her record after failing to deliver in her own back yard. <\/p>\n It looks to be a disappointing day for the Government parties, with John Stephens tallying at just 4.2 per cent of the vote \u2013 veering towards the catastrophic. Miche\u00e1l Martin will probably point to previous underwhelming byelection results that did not presage a wider collapse for his party \u2013 such as Dublin Bay South in 2021 \u2013 but it\u2019s a bad day for Fianna F\u00e1il. <\/p>\n As for Fine Gael\u2019s Ray McAdam, the putative successor to Donohoe, he is on 10.7 per cent of the completed tally, down significantly on the 16.77 per cent the former minister for finance garnered in 2024. If this pans out, it looks like he will be beaten into fifth place.<\/p>\n One of those outperforming McAdam in the tally is the Green Party candidate Janet Horner, who has put in a really strong showing amounting to a mini-resurgence for the party \u2013 she\u2019s on 11.5 per cent of the final tally. The Green candidate in 2024, Neasa Hourigan, got just under 6 per cent of the first-preference vote.<\/p>\n Outside of the fight for the seat itself, the main talking point has to be the strength of the combined vote for veteran criminal Gerry Hutch and Independent anti-immigration councillor Malachy Steenson. <\/p>\n The pair polled a combined 14.35 per cent of first-preference votes in 2024. With all boxes tallied, Hutch is in fourth place on 11.4 per cent (2024: 9.46 per cent), with the tally suggesting Steenson has significantly grown his 2024 vote. He\u2019s sitting on 9.5 per cent in the tally (2024: 4.89 per cent). <\/p>\n The centre left may win the seat, but the anti-establishment energy on the right in Dublin Central is swelling \u2013 and it looks to be pulling support from Sinn F\u00e9in, while the party is also probably bleeding support on the left.<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 6 hours ago<\/p>\n Daniel Ennis front-runner in Dublin while it looks like a long count set for Galway <\/p>\n There\u2019s hardly enough space on the page for the number of caveats that you\u2019d need to include at this stage \u2013 boxes only just open, incomplete tallies, first count hours away, and so on, and so on, writes Political <\/b>Editor Pat Leahy. <\/b><\/p>\n But going on the limited information that we have at this stage it is possible to say one thing about each of the byelections counts under way in Dublin and Galway.<\/p>\n In Dublin, expectations that the front-runner would be the Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis are being borne out as the boxes are opened in the RDS. <\/p>\n Some of the partial tallies so far have Ennis even topping the poll, though others have the Sinn F\u00e9in candidate Janice Boylan ahead. However, Boylan needs to beat Ennis by a lot on the first count to stay ahead of him when transfers come in on the later counts \u2013 and so far, there is no sign of that happening. <\/p>\n We will know a lot more by lunchtime, but that is the picture that has emerged in the first couple of hours.<\/p>\n In Galway, with about a quarter of the boxes tallied at the time of writing, the picture is a lot more complicated. It looks like a three-horse \u2013 or perhaps even four-horse \u2013 race. <\/p>\n Fine Gael\u2019s Se\u00e1n Kyne and Independent Ireland\u2019s Noel Thomas are out ahead of everyone else. But there is a lot of left-wing votes to be transferred in the later counts and it looks like Labour\u2019s Helen Ogbu will be the leading candidate of the left and so best placed to get them. <\/p>\n If that left-wing vote stays largely together, it will push her up towards the two leaders in the later counts. She needs to stay ahead of the Independent Mike Cubbard, who is showing strongly in the early stage. But it\u2019s possible to see a path to the seat for Ogbu even at this early stage.<\/p>\n Either way, Galway looks like being a long count, almost certainly running into tomorrow. Dublin, at this stage, looks more straightforward. But all those health warnings apply.<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 6 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 6 hours ago<\/p>\n The deputy leader of the Social Democrats and Dublin Bay North TD Cian O\u2019Callaghan has said the party is \u201chopeful\u201d their candidate Daniel Ennis will top the poll in Dublin Central. <\/p>\n Deputy leader of the Social Democrats, Cian O\u2019Callaghan was “hopeful” that their parties candidate Daniel Ennis would top the poll in the byelection. <\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 7 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 7 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 7 hours ago<\/p>\n Virgin Media\u2019s political correspondent Gavan Reilly has built a spreadsheet that compares the exact boxes from the 2024 general election with those being tallied in the RDS.<\/p>\n Why does that matter, you ask?<\/p>\n Well, tally data is great \u2013 but it suffers from a bit of a geographical bias in real time as we can\u2019t tell to a high degree of certainty which polling centres are feeding into the live tally, so it could be heavily weighted towards areas where a particular candidate is strong or weak. This makes it harder to infer a complete picture until the tally is complete. <\/p>\n But if you compare the same boxes today with those from 2024, you can see how a candidate is performing against the relevant indicator from last time out. <\/p>\n Our own Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones writes that, as at 9.50am, Gavan\u2019s spreadsheet shows Sinn F\u00e9in is struggling to match its 2024 showing, currently running some seven points off the combined Boylan\/McDonald vote in 2024, while Daniel Ennis is slightly overperforming Gary Gannon\u2019s totals for the same boxes in the general election. <\/p>\n This only tells us first preferences, but we fully expect Ennis to be more transfer-friendly than Boylan. On these numbers, they\u2019ll be tightly bunched at the top, which spells trouble for Sinn F\u00e9in. <\/p>\n A couple of other talking points:<\/p>\n The Hutch vote is growing, but on these numbers, only a little. The growth for Steenson, the anti-immigration councillor, is more pronounced. <\/p>\n As it stands, Ray McAdam is down on Paschal Donohoe\u2019s vote \u2013 but that\u2019s to be expected. <\/p>\n John Stephens (Fianna F\u00e1il) is nowhere. <\/p>\n Janet Horner (Green Party) is, as it stands, improving significantly on the 2024 showing. <\/p>\n Even by the time you read this, this picture will have changed \u2013 but these are interesting straws in the wind.<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 7 hours ago<\/p>\n Counting has started in the Dublin Central byelection <\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 8 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 8 hours ago<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 8 hours ago<\/p>\n Kevin Humphries, the former Labour TD famed for his powers of prediction at the count centre, is bravely already calling Dublin Central for Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats. <\/p>\n With counting under way, Humphries told The Irish Times: \u201cIt\u2019s over, Ennis has it\u201d, predicting that Janice Boylan (Sinn F\u00e9in) would top the poll by about three points \u2013 but that she would need four to five points of a gap to stay ahead of Ennis, who is predicted to be this contest\u2019s transfer magnet.<\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 8 hours ago<\/p>\n Boxes have been officially opened at the RDS. Let the fun begin! <\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 8 hours ago<\/p>\n Boxes due to be opened imminently at the RDS.<\/p>\n Ready to go here in the RDS for the Dublin Central bye-election tally.<\/p>\n The sun in shining, Simmonscourt is packed & all that is left to do is count the votes! pic.twitter.com\/5olRiEijbM<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Eoin \u00d3 Broin (@EOBroin) May 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Sarah Burns – 9 hours ago<\/p>\n The race is expected to come down to a battle between Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s Janice Boylan and the Social Democrats Daniel Ennis, based on our polling (the usual health warnings apply \u2013 higher margin of error and the fact that we\u2019ve had some campaigning between now and then). <\/p>\n Everyone will also be watching out for how veteran criminal Gerry Hutch gets on \u2013 can he build on his 2024 figure? <\/p>\n Here\u2019s<\/a> our full polling results. <\/p>\n Talking to one person in the Social Democrats late last night, their feeling was that the leafier suburbs of Glasnevin and Drumcondra doing well on turnout was promising, and the lower inner city turnout may hurt Hutch \u2013 while Cabra West going well on turnout was good for Sinn F\u00e9in. <\/p>\n But with a lower turnout, it also matters how much it\u2019s down and where \u2013 this could make a really important difference. <\/p>\n Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones says these are the things he will be watching out for: <\/p>\n Hutch and Sinn F\u00e9in<\/p>\n Sinn F\u00e9in are likely to struggle for transfers relative to Ennis, so they need their heartlands, like around Cabra, to turn out strongly \u2013 and for a strong showing in the inner city. <\/p>\n Signs of them matching or exceeding Mary Lou McDonald\u2019s 2024 percentages in these boxes will indicate if Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s \u201cget out the vote\u201d effort has succeeded or struggled. <\/p>\n It\u2019s a similar story for Hutch: how is he performing against Sinn F\u00e9in in these areas? Is he building his 2024 vote? Is the gap to Sinn F\u00e9in bigger or smaller? Has he managed to mobilise his vote? <\/p>\n This also matters for the larger party, whose anti-establishment vote is vulnerable to any Hutch surge (true to a lesser extent for Malachy Steenson, the Independent anti-immigration councillor running in the election). <\/p>\n If Daniel Ennis outperforms the rest of the left (Labour, Green Party and People Before Profit) as is expected, an interesting question is how he performs relative to Fine Gael\u2019s Ray McAdam in the likes of Drumcondra, Phibsborough and Glasnevin \u2013 places where Paschal Donohoe pulled in a lot of his vote. But the sitting TD for the Social Democrats, Gary Gannon, also builds a vote here. <\/p>\n So, is Ennis matching or even outperforming McAdam, who is expected to do okay but not come into the final reckoning? This will be a bellwether. <\/p>\n John Stephens, the Fianna F\u00e1il candidate, is not expected to do well in a constituency where the party hasn\u2019t won a seat since Bertie Ahern\u2019s era. But just how will he get on? And what will that mean for the rumblings of discontent in Fianna F\u00e1il about Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin\u2019s leadership? <\/p>\n Once the votes start being counted, we\u2019re expected the parties to run a combined effort to tally votes (an unofficial but pretty reliable count) \u2013 so early snaps of individual tally sheets in the RDS will be overtaken by data from that as it\u2019s built out. <\/p>\n We had a 100 per cent tally in 2024 around 12.30pm, that\u2019s going to be a pretty reliable indication of how the first count will shake out, which will come a little while after that. <\/p>\n We\u2019ll keep you up to date throughout the day on this live story, and the results as they come in will be available here<\/a>. <\/p>\n Sarah Burns – 10 hours ago<\/p>\n Good morning \u2013 it\u2019s count day in Dublin Central and Galway West. In the capital, boxes will be opened from about 9am at the RDS in Ballsbridge in the race to fill the seat vacated by former Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe.<\/p>\n Political Correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones has been looking at what we should be watching out for in the very early stages of the count.<\/p>\n The official turnout estimate for Dublin Central is the first bit of data we have, he writes. Across five polling stations, here are the figures from the returning officer last night:<\/p>\n St. Paul\u2019s CBS, 25 per cent: Se\u00e1n O\u2019Casey, 37.5 per cent; St Finbarr\u2019s NS, 48.6 per cent; Deaf Village, 40.3 per cent; Glasnevin NS, 46 per cent. <\/p>\n Average turnout: 39.48 per cent. <\/p>\n So, turnout is down on the 2024 general election figure of 52.27 per cent. This is to be expected \u2013 turnout is almost always lower in byelections than in general elections. It also looks to be down on the last byelection held in the constituency in 2009, when turnout was 46.3 per cent. <\/p>\n What counts as good and what counts as bad? We\u2019ll turn to the ever-reliable Adrian Kavanagh for a quick look: <\/p>\n By-election contests with the lowest turnout levels between 1980 and 2021 <\/p>\n Turnouts in 2019 artificially low as contests took place at a point in time when next general election was expected to take place within a matter of months <\/p>\n Particular focus on Dublin constituencies here pic.twitter.com\/c4hMxuYoIZ<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) May 22, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n By-election contests with the highest turnout levels between 1980 and 2021 \u2014 Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) May 22, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n The picture is slightly complicated by the fact the Electoral Commission has been hard at work cleaning up the Electoral Register, while there\u2019s also been a slew of new voter registrations. <\/p>\n You can read a bit more about this here<\/a>. <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1767177877588-3bab3de8-62c2-4c3b-9d11-75f906621012.jpeg\"\/)
Ennis and Kyne in poll position on a bad day for big parties<\/p>\n![\"Fianna](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2242CZO75NE6JLIZ5BLMPZWVIU.JPG\")
Fianna F\u00e1il’s Dublin Central candidate John Stephens (left) with Minister for Transport Darragh O\u2019Brien in the RDS count centre on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson <\/p>\n\n
![\"Janet](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/ZK3NWE4WINGT5NT76DPNYPUVAU.JPG\")
Janet Horner of the Green Party in the RDS on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson<\/p>\n![\"Eoghan](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/S6BH77IRVZGG5FJNIBMA67E2XY.JPG\")
Eoghan \u00d3’Ceannabh\u00e1in of People Before Profit speaks to the media at the count centre. Photograph: Alan Betson <\/p>\n![\"Counting](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/D4OEMR5IQRBKLDJT7NWY5MH2LQ.JPG\")
Counting continues in the RDS on Saturday. Photograph: Alan Betson Dublin Central counting second preference votes<\/p>\n\n
![\"Social](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/ERCRLCORRNGMFEDTPNBNUA52PM.JPG\")
Social Democrat candidate Daniel Ennis arrives at the polling station to cast his ballot on Friday. Photograph: Enda O’Dowd <\/p>\n![\"Counting](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/FBALCE2IKBFZRF435TWAM5KJKU.JPG\")
Counting in the Dublin Central byelection at the RDS in Dublin. Photograph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times<\/p>\n![\"Counting](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/LOXX6XH3VVE73DOKNQLIHBKJYE.JPG\")
Counting in the Dublin Central byelection at the RDS in Dublin. Photograph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times ![\"Counting](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/YZRFENCHIJD77JANUMDXAEOCCI.JPG\")
Counting in the Dublin Central byelection at the RDS in Dublin. Photograph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times <\/p>\n![\"Gavan](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/22SBF2HPGZC4TOO4SIZS2XK3L4.jpeg\")
Gavan Reilly tally of Dublin Central. <\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/PXMXTG7OFBAEFNBSBVTMJL6NQI.JPG\")
The first votes being counted after ballot boxes are opened at the start of counting in the Dublin Central byelection at Dublins RDS.
\nPhotograph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/S37CVYZGPNAU3DMKQ7LLOLIRVY.JPG\")
The first ballot boxes are opened at the start of counting in the Dublin Central byelection at Dublins RDS.Photogr aph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/WYKIXYIUWBFZNJ472VTIPDZG3E.JPG\")
The first ballot boxes are opened at the start of counting in the Dublin Central by-election at Dublins RDS.
\nPhotograph: Alan Betson \/ The Irish Times<\/p>\n![\"Former](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/XPZBLZ2WOX6W5LYKZRGWIZZSRY.jpg\")
Former Labour TD Kevin Humphries. Photograph: Gareth Chaney\/Collins. <\/p>\n\n
![\"Sinn](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/MFTDO6OOVTOBJ2NKEOIUJPOHWA.JPG\")
Sinn F\u00e9in’s Janice Boylan and Independent candidate Gerard Hutch. Photograph: Sam Boal\/Collins Photos Fine Gael and Ennis<\/p>\n![\"Daniel](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/OVDPCYRAETQ37X6QWLA2CCYZIA.jpg\")
Daniel Ennis at St Columba\u2019s National School, North Strand, Dublin 3. Photograph: Collins photos How far can Fianna F\u00e1il fall?<\/p>\n![\"Taoiseach](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/TZOQUJOKBHWNU5QNXN3Z5N3K4E.jpg\")
Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin during a press conference with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday. Photograph: Liam McBurney\/PA Wire What happens next?<\/p>\n\n
\n
Some contests have “artificially” high turnout levels as they took place on the same day as another higher profile election contest (eg 1984\/2015 referendum elections) while TS 2001 was a Saturday election pic.twitter.com\/AHnn8TjTcU<\/a><\/p>\n