Ireland will achieve at best just half of the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions it is committed to make by 2030, the latest forecast shows. <\/p>\n
Projections by the Environmental Protection Agency<\/a> (EPA) show an overall reduction of 25 per cent in emissions is possible, but that is only about half of the 51 per cent drop required by law. <\/p>\n The EPA also warns that the reduction could be as little as 13 per cent if current climate policies are pursued for the next four-and-a-half years and pledges to do more do not materialise. <\/p>\n It is a small improvement on last year\u2019s forecasts, which put the range at 9 per cent to 23 per cent, but EPA director general Eimear Cotter said nearly all sectors remained off-track in terms of their emissions targets. <\/p>\n \u201cThere must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland\u2019s climate targets, which will be a significant challenge given the short time frame to 2030,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n The EPA stressed the forecast was really about the country\u2019s progress in combating climate change<\/a>, protecting the public and the environment and strengthening energy security by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. <\/p>\n The forecast shows progress is uneven across various sectors. <\/p>\n A halving of emissions from transport is required, but the drop is expected to be 28 per cent at best if the switch to electric vehicles<\/a> (EVs) speeds up and more biofuels are added to petrol and diesel. <\/p>\n At the current rate of switching, emissions will fall by just 15.5 per cent.<\/p>\n Emissions from electricity generation are meant to fall by three-quarters, but the best forecast is 61 per cent because the roll-out of renewable electricity from wind and solar is slower than expected. The reduction could also be 54.5 per cent. <\/p>\n The emissions from oil<\/a> and gas used for central heating are forecast to fall between 13 per cent and 18 per cent for homes, but to rise between 3 per cent and 7 per cent for commercial and public buildings. <\/p>\n Uncertainty surrounds agriculture, where a best-case reduction is 19 per cent but it could also be as low as 4 per cent. <\/p>\n The disparity is of concern as agriculture is the country\u2019s single-biggest emitting sector, responsible for 37 per cent of national emissions. <\/p>\n Emissions from land are also highly uncertain, but these increase in all scenarios by between 4 per cent and 72 per cent.<\/p>\n The increases are due to the ageing condition of many forests, which are no longer absorbing carbon and will be due for felling, releasing carbon. <\/p>\n The degraded state of peatlands and wetlands also means those habitats are releasing carbon rather than storing it. <\/p>\n