Forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\nThe primary objective of the MTP is to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability, preserve fiscal discipline and achieve single-digit inflation over the medium term to ensure lasting price stability.<\/p>\n
According to the program, released around midnight in the Official Gazette, the role of public finance in supporting macroeconomic stability will also be enhanced during the implementation period.<\/p>\n
The program forecast economic growth of 3.3% in 2025, 3.8% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027 and 5% in 2028. Potential GDP expansion is expected to rise by 0.5% during this time due to structural reforms.<\/p>\n
Inflation is expected to be 28.5% by the end of this year, 16% in 2026, 9% in 2027 and 8% in 2028.<\/p>\n
The current account-to-GDP ratio is forecast to be 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, before reaching 1% in 2028. The current account deficit is seen narrowing to $18.5 billion by 2028, from $22.6 billion this year.<\/p>\n
The budget deficit is projected to be 3.6% of the country’s GDP this year, before narrowing to 3.5% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 2.8% at the end of the program period.<\/p>\n
In absolute terms, the gap is forecast at TL 2.21 trillion ($53.55 billion) in 2024, before rising to TL 2.71 trillion in 2026, TL 2.74 trillion in 2027 and TL 2.81 trillion in 2028.<\/p>\n
The program also projects a shift to a primary surplus next year, with the primary balance expected to reach TL 500 billion by 2028.<\/p>\n
Spending controls<\/strong><\/p>\nY\u0131lmaz highlighted that around $90 billion had already been spent on expenditures related to the rebuilding after the devastating Feb. 6, 2023, earthquakes, warning that their fiscal impact would continue, albeit with a diminishing effect over time.<\/p>\n
\u015eim\u015fek reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal restraint, noting that spending controls were yielding results.<\/p>\n
“We are determined on public savings,” he said, underlining the central role of fiscal discipline in the program.<\/p>\n
Tourism revenues were expected to rise to $75 billion by 2028 from a record $64 billion this year.<\/p>\n
Exports are seen climbing to $308.5 billion by 2028 from what is expected to be a new peak of $273.8 billion this year. They are forecast to reach $282 billion in 2026 and $294 billion in 2027.<\/p>\n
Imports are projected to reach $367 billion by the end of this year, $378 billion in 2026, $393 billion in 2027 and $410.5 billion in 2028.<\/p>\n
2.5M new jobs<\/strong><\/p>\nThe unemployment rate is expected to be relatively stable at 8.5% this year, with a target of 8.4% for next year, 8.2% for 2027, and 7.8% for 2028.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131lmaz said the program envisages the creation of around 2.5 million new jobs, with policies designed to increase labor force participation and improve social welfare.<\/p>\n
For the first time, the MTP also includes specific policy measures targeting underutilized labor.<\/p>\n
The program also listed a series of planned structural reforms ranging from transitioning into digital or high-value-added technology industries to a green transformation and ways to increase agricultural efficiency.<\/p>\n
With the policies pursued and the gains achieved, Y\u0131lmaz said, T\u00fcrkiye’s economy will be in a much stronger position by the end of the MTP period.<\/p>\n
By the end of 2028, he noted, the country will have built an economic structure with lasting macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.<\/p>\n
For the first time, T\u00fcrkiye’s GDP will approach $1.9 trillion, and per capita income will reach $21,000 at the end of the MTP period, he stressed.<\/p>\n
“Our tourism revenues will reach $75 billion, unemployment will be reduced to below 8%, and price stability will be permanently achieved with single-digit inflation,” Y\u0131lmaz noted.<\/p>\n
“Within the framework of inflation targeting, monetary policy will continue to be supported in full harmony with fiscal and revenue policies.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye’s government on Monday presented its closely watched new three-year economic road map that officials say aims to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":52136,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,35550,179,18,10170,7442,19,185,17,35551,5986,1997,2245,2246,2297],"class_list":{"0":"post-52135","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economic-policies","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-eire","12":"tag-exports","13":"tag-gdp-growth","14":"tag-ie","15":"tag-inflation","16":"tag-ireland","17":"tag-medium-term-program","18":"tag-tourism","19":"tag-trade","20":"tag-turkish-economy","21":"tag-turkiye","22":"tag-unemployment"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52135"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52135\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}