Energy price increases such as those triggered by the war in Ukraine make faster decarbonization more cost effective, according to a new analysis of the EU energy system. The net benefits could amount to roughly 3% of the bloc\u2019s projected GDP in 2050, the study suggests.<\/p>\n
In the past, the EU has been highly dependent on imported oil and gas. Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 caused fossil fuel prices to spike and prompted EU leadership to reduce or eliminate imports of Russian natural gas<\/a>.<\/p>\n In turn, this sudden drop in energy supply has left the EU with an \u201cenergy gap.\u201d In the new study, researchers use a pair of computer models to conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of short- and long-term solutions to filling in the gap.<\/p>\n Short-term strategies to increase the energy supply<\/a> such as burning more coal or biomass involve high costs, a heavy public health burden, or both, the analysis shows. Meanwhile, demand-side solutions like reducing private transportation by 20% or turning down thermostats by 3 \u00b0C to reduce heating demand have limited impact.<\/p>\n With short-term solutions inadequate and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and elsewhere suggesting the energy crisis is likely to persist and can\u2019t simply be white-knuckled through, the researchers turned their attention to solutions that would fundamentally reorganize the EU\u2019s energy system in the coming decades.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Three scenarios that involve increasing electrification, increasing renewable sources of energy like solar and wind power, and reducing private transportation while filling in the remaining energy gap with renewables would all reduce net costs to society by 2050, the researchers found.<\/p>\n New infrastructure and equipment required for electrification and building out renewables costs money. A lot of money. But the savings from lower fuel prices, reduced public health burden from air pollution, and lower costs to society from climate change are greater than those costs.<\/p>\n \u201cEastern EU countries such as Poland, Latvia, Slovakia, and Hungary are more reliant on Russian imports and exhibit the largest benefits,\u201d the researchers write.<\/p>\n