{"id":534453,"date":"2026-06-14T07:50:22","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T07:50:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/534453\/"},"modified":"2026-06-14T07:50:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T07:50:22","slug":"grafton-chief-bets-on-piigs-boom-as-northern-european-markets-stall-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/534453\/","title":{"rendered":"Grafton chief bets on \u2018PIIGS\u2019 boom as northern European markets stall \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Having dusted himself off as a 21-year-old from a first-round judo defeat at the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and gone on to take silver at the world championship a year later, Zurich native Eric Born knows how to mount a comeback.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/grafton\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/grafton\/\">Grafton Group<\/a> chief executive is hoping financial goals unveiled on Thursday at its capital markets day can spark one of its own at the merchanting and DIY retailing company, which has been on the back foot ever since he took charge in late 2022 \u2013 with group shares struggling amid weakness in its British, Dutch and Finnish businesses. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Born is targeting earnings per share (EPS) growth at a compound annual rate of more than 10 per cent out to 2030 at the group, parent of the Woodie\u2019s and Chadwicks chains in the Republic. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">It\u2019s ambitious, especially when analysts see the group setting off by posting a 1 per cent dip in earnings this year after returning to growth last year (of 5.1 per cent) following a cumulative 25 per cent slump over the two previous years. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Indeed, the performance would have been worse had Grafton not been reducing its number of shares in issue over the period. It has spent about \u00a3430 million (\u20ac498 million) since 2022 buying back and cancelling more than a fifth of its stock. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The Swiss executive aims to end 2030 with the group delivering a return on capital employed \u2013 a measure of profitability against a company\u2019s debt and equity \u2013 of about 13 per cent, compared to under 11 per cent last year. The objective is about four percentage points above the company\u2019s estimated current cost of capital, suggesting it will be creating economic value for shareholders. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Investors have given the plan a cautious thumbs-up. The stock has advanced as much as 4.5 per cent in the past two days. But it has much to do to break out of the range it has been stuck in ever since the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/brexit\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/brexit\/\">Brexit<\/a> referendum a decade ago this month \u2013 save for a brief breakout during the Covid pandemic when construction was deemed a critical industry and Woodie\u2019s was mobbed by lockdown DIYers scrambling to transform their gardens. Grafton shares remain almost 40 per cent below their 2021 highs. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The targets are predicated on the island of Ireland, which has replaced Britain as Grafton\u2019s main earning market in recent years, remaining what Born referred to during an investor presentation on Thursday as the \u201cpowerhouse\u201d of the group. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph b-it-article-body__interstitial-link\">[\u00a0<a aria-label=\"Open related story\" class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/business\/2026\/05\/15\/woodies-parent-suffers-5-hit-to-british-revenue\/\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Woodies parent suffers 5% hit to British revenueOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">His team sees Chadwicks \u2013 by far the largest builders\u2019 merchants \u2013 and Woodie\u2019s benefiting as house completions grow at 9 per cent annually over the next three years. Repairs, maintenance and improvement spend is also seen remaining strong as 78 per cent of the Republic\u2019s housing stock was built before 2000, according to Grafton. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Britain, which accounted for more than two-thirds of group sales in 2016, has been the group\u2019s biggest headache for the past decade. Grafton\u2019s average daily like-for-like sales in that market fell by 5 per cent in the first four months of this year alone. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">But the British impact on the group has been diluted by restructuring over the years that culminated with the sale \u2013 under then chief executive Gavin Slark \u2013 of its traditional British merchanting business to rival Huws Gray for \u00a3520 million in 2022. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Grafton continues to own businesses such as Selco Builders Warehouse, which is geared towards small-jobbing builders, the decorating and DIY brand Leyland and staircase maker StairBox on the other side of the Irish Sea. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">\u201cGrafton is keeping the faith and believes the recovery is \u2018when\u2019, not \u2018if\u2019,\u201d noted Flor O\u2019Donoghue, an analyst with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/davy-group\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/tags\/davy-group\/\">Davy<\/a>. But Born and his finance chief, David Arnold, do not assume a full rebound in that market by 2030. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Brexit alone may have already cost the UK economy as much as 4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to an analysis published by Bloomberg this week. UK housing output contracted for the 17th straight month in May, leaving activity at levels last seen at the outset of the pandemic six years ago, according to figures released this week. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The country\u2019s economy contracted slightly in April \u2013 by 0.1 per cent \u2013 according to figures released on Friday, as the Iran war has an impact on households and businesses. Expected Bank of England rate rises in the coming months to combat inflation stoked by that war won\u2019t help. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Having sold off a long-struggling Belgian merchanting business in 2019, Slark moved Grafton into Finland two years later with the almost \u20ac200 million purchase of IKH, the country\u2019s largest specialist distributor of workwear, personal protective equipment, tools and spare parts. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The Finnish economy \u2013 and construction sector \u2013 slid into recession in 2023 following a collapse in exports to Russia as a result of the Ukraine war and a spike in European Central Bank (ECB) rates. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">While most Irish home loans are now on fixed rates, most mortgages in Finland are on variable rates, leaving them exposed to moves in official borrowing costs. The ECB raised rates this week for the first time in two years and economists expected it to move again in September. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">The timing of a recovery in Finland and in Grafton\u2019s business in the Netherlands remains uncertain. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">However, Born is decidedly bullish on the group\u2019s prospects in Spain and, to a lesser extent, Portugal \u2013 two countries that, along with Ireland, were branded the so-called PIIGS economies and often disparaged by northern Europe during the sovereign debt crisis a decade and a half ago.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">He oversaw Grafton\u2019s foray into Iberia in late 2024, with the \u20ac132 million purchase of Barcelona-based air-conditioning and heating products distributor Salvador Escoda. And he followed up last month by buying another Spanish air-conditioning company, Mercaluz, which also has sales in Portugal, in a deal worth up to \u20ac175 million. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph b-it-article-body__interstitial-link\">[\u00a0<a aria-label=\"Open related story\" class=\"c-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/business\/2026\/05\/01\/grafton-group-completes-acquisition-of-family-founded-spanish-group-mercaluz-for-175m\/\" rel=\"noreferrer nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Grafton Group seals deal worth up to \u20ac175m for family-founded Spanish group MercaluzOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">Executives signalled that they see a big opportunity for more deals in the air-conditioning and other merchanting areas in Iberia, given how fragmented the market is. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates the Spanish and Portuguese economies will each grow at 2.2 per cent this year, far outpacing euro zone growth for the fifth straight year. Spanish house completions are forecast by Grafton to grow by 15 per cent annually over the next three years. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">They said that they expect Iberia will be Grafton\u2019s second \u00a31 billion sales market \u2013 alongside the island of Ireland \u2013 by 2030. The two Spanish businesses\u2019 combined sales were running at about \u20ac360 million last year. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-paragraph paywall \">A bold target but, as any judoka knows, it\u2019s the execution of the throw that counts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Having dusted himself off as a 21-year-old from a first-round judo defeat at the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":534454,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[73],"tags":[4932,6504,79,28197,179,18,229954,229955,32073,19,17],"class_list":["post-534453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-bloomberg","tag-brexit","tag-business","tag-davy-group","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-eric-born","tag-gavin-slark","tag-grafton","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116747372143707952","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=534453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/534454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=534453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=534453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=534453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}