As usual, a very informative note from RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft<\/b>.<\/p>\n
While markets, especially the oil market, appears to be pricing in a done deal with Brent around $US83 a barrel<\/b>, Croft and her team are urging more caution about Middle East supplies getting back to pre-war levels.<\/p>\n
“While we anticipate an increase in traffic as ships look to exit after 100+ days on the water in the Gulf, we think it will take months to reach anything close to February 27 levels<\/b> (especially if the security environment remains unsettled) and that peak Hormuz flows may actually be in the rearview mirror<\/b>.”<\/p>\n
A key sticking point is likely to remain Iran’s continued claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz and its future ability to potentially charge fees to ships passing through.<\/p>\n
“As it stands now, Iran is continuing to insist that it retains operational control of the Strait and that it will charge a ‘maritime service fee’<\/b> following 60 days of toll-free passage,” Croft notes.<\/p>\n
“If this stands, it appears to represent a significant victory for Tehran, and we think it could indeed impede a full normalization of flows.<\/p>\n
“We do envision that certain companies and countries will be willing to pay a service fee, as a handful are already doing so to access the Iranian Hormuz channel. However, we suspect that a number of Western companies will be unwilling to do so, especially as the IRGC will likely remain a sanctioned entity<\/b> regardless of the outcome of Friday’s MoU.”<\/p>\n
RBC points out that continued tensions in the region are likely to lead to ongoing caution in shipping oil and gas out of there.<\/p>\n
“While we expect deal euphoria to persist post-signing, we still think the Red Sea could serve as a cautionary tale for a Hormuz reopening<\/b>,” Croft concludes.<\/p>\n
“Despite the deal inked between the US and the Houthis over a year ago, traffic remains around 50% lower than 2023 pre-crisis levels.<\/p>\n
“Moreover, we think the actual term sheet specifics will be crucial for the durability of any MoU deal inked on Friday.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As usual, a very informative note from RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft. While…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":537439,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[174],"tags":[208,210,79,179,18,19,5389,18929,17,215,213,9951,1659,21072,209],"class_list":["post-537438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-asx","tag-australian-dollar","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-ie","tag-interest-rates","tag-iran","tag-ireland","tag-live-update","tag-nyse","tag-oil","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank","tag-share-market"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116758130738274962","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=537438"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537438\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/537439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=537438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=537438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=537438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}