{"id":562413,"date":"2026-06-30T23:17:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T23:17:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/562413\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T23:17:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T23:17:35","slug":"the-20-oscar-contenders-and-pretenders-of-2026-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/562413\/","title":{"rendered":"The 20 Oscar contenders and pretenders of 2026 so far"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ve officially hit 2026&#8217;s halfway mark, and while the Oscar race is still a couple months away from heating up, it is starting to seriously simmer. The first six months of the year have seen a slew of releases that are hoping to pleasantly linger in voters&#8217; memories before they can be reintroduced during the fall awards corridor. And those titles run the gamut from out of this world blockbusters to one-location affairs with a smattering of yet-to-be released film festival breakouts in between.<\/p>\n<p>But mixed in with the early Oscar contenders are a batch of pretenders that are going to have a harder hill to climb if they hope to reach the stage at the Dolby Theater next March. Gold Derby looked back at the January through June release calendar and picked the 20 titles from multiplexes, art house and film festivals that fall into either camp. Consider this our Disclosure Day.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"pmc-fallback-list-items lrv-a-unstyle-list lrv-u-margin-t-2\">\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Obsession<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/MCDOBSE_UC011.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Inde Navarrette in 'Obsession'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Focus Features\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>When the history of 2026 is written, it\u2019ll be remembered as the year where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/backrooms-obsession-iron-lung-youtube-horror-oscars-analysis\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">YouTube creators broke through at the box office<\/a> \u2014 and maybe the Oscars. While Markiplier\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/send-help-box-office-weekend-iron-lung-shelter-melania\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Iron Lung<\/a>, Kane Parsons\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/backrooms-instant-oscar-predictions-obsession\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Backrooms<\/a>, and Gooseworx\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/the-amazing-digital-circus-oscars-toy-story-5\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Amazing Digital Circus<\/a> are all success stories (and the latter two have very niche awards potential), Curry Barker\u2019s low-budget \u201cMonkey\u2019s Paw\u201d riff emerged as moviegoers\u2019 one true Obsession. Since its mid-May release, the movie has become the kind of seismic phenomenon that makes Hollywood studios, and Academy voters, sit up and take notice. While a Sinners-like run to a Best Picture nomination might be a stretch, a Best Original Screenplay nod for Barker is absolutely in play, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/obsession-inde-navarrette-2027-oscars-interview\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">there\u2019s a path for breakout star Inde Navarrette<\/a> to follow in Mikey Madison\u2019s footsteps to Best Actress recognition. Sure, the message of Obsession is to be careful what you wish for\u2026 but in this case, wish away.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Disclosure Day<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Blunt-OConnor-Disclosure-Day.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Emily Blunt and Josh O'Connor in 'Dislcosure Day'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Universal Pictures\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been a few years \u2014 43 to be precise \u2014 since Steven Spielberg has had a close encounter of the Oscar kind for directing an alien-themed blockbuster. And Disclosure Day\u2019s most vocal fans have done their level best to elevate this new movie to the Spielberg pantheon alongside Close Encounters and E.T., which brought him Best Director nominations in 1978 and 1983, respectively. After a solid opening weekend, though, the movie stalled out at the box office <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/disclosure-day-instant-oscar-odds-steven-spielberg-emily-blunt\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">and as an awards conversation starter<\/a> following the mixed response to its tone, narrative structure, and third act among audiences and critics. That dimming enthusiasm has also quieted the Best Actress buzz around Emily Blunt, whose star turn is unlikely to be remembered among the coming onslaught of fall prestige performances <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/sandra-huller-2026-movies-ranked-oscar-potential\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">from the likes of Sandra H\u00fcller<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/the-debut-trailer-julianne-moore-paul-giamatti-jesse-eisenberg\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Julianne Moore<\/a>. At this point, Disclosure Day is looking less like another Close Encounters and more like another War of the Worlds \u2014 a Spielberg alien picture that\u2019s big on spectacle, but small on Oscar recognition.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: The Invite<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/The-Invite.webp\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Olivia Wilde, Seth Rogen, Penelope Cruz, and Edward Norton in 'The Invite'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: A24\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Scooped up out of Sundance by A24, Olivia Wilde\u2019s third film as director is the kind of juicy actors\u2019 showcase that plays equally well in theaters or at home on the Academy screening app, where a sizable chunk of voters will likely see it. But you can also expect the A-list quartet of Wilde, Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Pen\u00e9lope Cruz \u2014 not to mention the screenwriting duo of Rashida Jones and Will McCormack \u2014 to be a major draw once awards season FYC events start up in earnest, and those rooms are where the deciding votes will ultimately be cast. The Invite\u2019s script, adapted from the 2020 Spanish film, Sentimental, has been praised on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/the-invite-olivia-wilde-2027-oscars-analysis\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">festival circuit from Sundance to Nantucket<\/a>, putting it in a prime position for a Best Adapted Screenplay nod. Meanwhile, Cruz\u2019s sly and soulful performance gives her an early edge in the Best Supporting Actress race, a statuette she previously claimed for Vicky Christina Barcelona. Expect The Invite to receive multiple invitations to Oscar season.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: The Drama<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Robert-Pattinson-and-Zendaya-in-The-Drama.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Robert Pattinson and Zendaya in 'The Drama'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: A24\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/tv\/2026\/zendayas-2026-roles-ranked-oscars-emmys-euphoria-odyssey\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The power of Zendaya<\/a> compelled younger moviegoers to flock to The Drama when it bowed in early April, driving the $28 million movie to a $130 million global gross and inspiring plenty of social media chatter. But there\u2019s a definite generation gap between those audiences and Academy voters, who are more likely to struggle with the squirm-inducing twists and turns that writer-director Kristoffer Borgli takes in his dark comedy. The Norwegian filmmaker has been in this position before; his 2023 film, Dream Scenario, remains a cult favorite among critics and Nicolas Cage-heads, but it couldn\u2019t break into the Oscar race for Best Actor or Best Original Screenplay. Still, The Drama offers conclusive proof that if you\u2019re still doubting Zendaya\u2019s star power, the joke\u2019s on you.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Toy Story 5<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Jessie-Buzz-Woody-Toy-Story-5.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Jessie Buzz Woody Toy Story 5\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Disney\/Pixar\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Pixar wasn\u2019t playing around with the fifth installment in its foundational franchise, bringing one of its most celebrated and venerated alums, Andrew Stanton, aboard as director after co-writing the pervious installments. As it so happens, the filmmaker and the Toy Story series have something else in common \u2014 they each have a pair Best Animated Feature statuettes. Stanton won that prize for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, while Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 both have Oscars in their toy chest. (The third film is also one of the few animated features to score a Best Picture nod.) That kind of pedigree made Toy Story 5 this year\u2019s cartoon front-runner before the film even opened, and the film has solidified that status thanks to its critical acclaim and box office dominance. Of course, money alone couldn\u2019t buy Zootopia 2 an Oscar against those KPop Demon Hunters, but the love for Woody and Buzz is very real and very powerful among voters. Barring a major upset, the movie\u2019s Oscar dreams seem golden. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Minions &amp; Monsters<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"126\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/MMINS3_DS_P1100_0101.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"A scene from 'Minions &amp; Monsters'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Illumination\/Universal\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Moviegoers like the Minions \u2014 they really, really like them. The Academy, on the other hand, is traditionally lukewarm to those banana-chomping mischief-makers; to date, only one entry in the combined Despicable Me\/Minions franchise has scored any Oscar recognition \u2014 2013\u2019s Despicable Me 2, which picked up nominations for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song. That\u2019s why Illumination is pulling out all the stops with the latest installment, Minions &amp; Monsters, trumpeting the new movie as a love letter to old school Hollywood, right down to a George Lucas cameo. The full court press started ahead of the film\u2019s release, with Universal making it the centerpiece of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/cinemacon-2026-the-odyssey-disclosure-day-werwulf\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the studio\u2019s CinemaCon presentation in April<\/a>, and awarding it a prime spot at the prestigious animation-centric Annecy Film Festival. History has certainly shown that Oscar voters are susceptible to movies that celebrate the industry\u2019s storied past \u2014 witness the multiple wins and nominations for The Artist, The Aviator, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to name a few. But history has also shown that the Minions don\u2019t tickle voters\u2019 funny bones\u2026 and for now that seems like the piece of history more likely to repeat itself, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/minions-and-monsters-reviews-illumination\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">despite the film&#8217;s franchise-best reviews<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Michael<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Michael-Lionsgate.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"'Michael'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Lionsgate\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>How do you solve a problem like Michael? On paper, Antoine Fuqua\u2019s Michael Jackson biopic has all the ingredients for a winning Oscar recipe: blockbuster box office, a note-perfect recreation of a legendary entertainer from an unexpected star, and musical sequences that raised the roof in movie theaters across the U.S. Those are the elements that powered movies like Walk the Line, Ray, and Bohemian Rhapsody to multiple nominations in their respective years. But Michael also made the widely criticized \u2014 if commercially savvy \u2014 choice to moonwalk around the singer\u2019s, shall we say, complicated legacy, and those moves dominated a lot of the pre- and post-release discussion. Still, Bohemian Rhapsody was far from an authentic depiction of Freddie Mercury\u2019s life, and that movie went 4-for-5 at the 2019 Oscars, winning every category it was nominated in except for Best Picture. Michael is simply too big a phenomenon for the Academy to ignore outright, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/michael-instant-oscar-predictions-odds-jackson-biopic\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">and there are multiple races where the film could break through<\/a> without making voters feel like they\u2019re endorsing anything that happened outside of the frame. Seeing how the movie navigates awards season will be a real thriller. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: The Devil Wears Prada 2<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/TDWP2-19956_R2_19964_r.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway in 'The Devil Wears Prada 2'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Macall Polay\/20th Century Studios\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Miranda Priestly\u2019s smashingly successful return to the runway proved that early-aughts nostalgia is alive and well among millennial and Gen Z audiences. The 20-years-later follow-up also cleverly won over many critics with its spot-on commentary about the state of modern journalism. Still, Oscar voters have a mixed track record when it comes to the nostalgic lure of legacy sequels to previously nominated hits; for every Top Gun: Maverick and its six nominations, there\u2019s a Creed or Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull that gets one nod or none. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/devil-wears-prada-2-awards-oscar-predictions-meryl-streep\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">In the case of Prada 2<\/a>, that one potential nomination seems most likely to go to the film\u2019s costume designer, Molly Rogers, as Meryl Streep\u2019s second outing as Miranda is less surprising \u2014 and less-devilish \u2014 than the previous installment. But we also wouldn\u2019t be surprised if the sequel\u2019s Oscar closet remains bare. \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Fjord<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Fjord-Neon.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"The cast of Fjord\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Another year, another Neon-acquired Palme d\u2019Or champ that\u2019s bound for Best Picture status. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/2026-cannes-film-festival-fjord-palme-dor-winners-list\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The distributor stretched its Cannes winning streak<\/a> to seven titles with writer-director Cristian Mungiu\u2019s first film outside of his native Romania, and also the first to feature globally recognized stars like previous Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/fjord-cannes-palme-dor-winner-oscars-cast-release-date\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fjord <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/fjord-cannes-palme-dor-winner-oscars-cast-release-date\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">casts the duo<\/a> as parents whose approach to childrearing makes them the target of suspicion in their small Norwegian town, exposing the small-mindedness that exists beneath the bucolic scenery.\u00a0 While the movie still has to run the fall festival gauntlet ahead of its Oct. 9 release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/2026-cannes-2027-oscar-analysis-fjord-fatherland\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Neon\u2019s 4-for-6 record at guiding past Palme d\u2019Or winners<\/a> Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora to Best Picture nominations (plus a 2-for-4 record among that quartet) will absolutely provide Fjord with fertile awards season ground.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Paper Tiger<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Paper-Tiger-Neon-.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Miles Teller, Adam Driver, and Scarlett Johansson in 'Paper Tiger'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve seen this movie before: A James Gray film debuts to standing ovations and passionate reviews out of Cannes only to land with a thud on American shores among general audiences and awards voters. It happened with The Yards, We Own the Night, Two Lovers, The Immigrant, and Armageddon Time, and unless sixth time turns out to be the charm, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/paper-tiger-release-date-adam-driver-scarlett-johansson\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">that could be the destiny for Paper Tiger as well<\/a>. A late addition to the Cannes lineup, Gray\u2019s new crime drama was one of the most high-profile American movies on the Croisette, bringing stars Adam Driver and Miles Teller (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/cannes-paper-tiger-scarlett-johansson-steven-soderbergh-barbra-streisand\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">but not Scarlett Johannson<\/a>) to the red carpet. While the director\u2019s dedicated fans were quick to proclaim the crime drama a triumph, the critical praise was far from unanimous, and Paper Tiger was a non-starter with the Competition jury as well. We\u2019re not ruling out a second wind in Toronto or New York \u2014 where Gray is a hometown hero \u2014 before it opens on Nov. 13. But at this point, Tiger is heading into awards season seriously declawed.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Project Hail Mary<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"148\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Project-Hail-Mary.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Amazon MGM\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Phil Lord and Chris Miller&#8217;s space odyssey\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/they-will-kill-you-weekend-box-office-project-hail-mary\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">amazed, amazed, amazed at the box office<\/a>, emerging as 2026&#8217;s first certified blockbuster. And the bevy of positive reviews and overall good vibes around the movie and leading man Ryan Gosling\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/project-hail-mary-instant-oscar-predictions-ryan-goslings-picture-actor\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">should buoy its awards hopes<\/a>, especially in the crafts categories. The big question is just how quickly Amazon MGM will switch over from funding\u00a0Project Hail Mary&#8217;s theatrical campaign to its awards campaign. Warner Bros. bided its time with\u00a0Sinners\u00a0last year, allowing Ryan Coogler&#8217;s film to bask in its spring commercial success before relaunching it as a prestige awards player in the late summer ahead of the fall deluge \u2014 a pivot that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/2026-oscar-nominations-complete-list-sinners-record\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ultimately paid off in a historic number of Oscar nods<\/a>.\u00a0PHM\u00a0won&#8217;t reach\u00a0Sinners&#8217;s 16-nomination stratosphere, but it likely won&#8217;t need a Hail Mary pass to put some nods on the board.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: The Bride!<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"181\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/rev-1-BRD-14515rv2_High_Res_JPEG.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Christian Bale and Jessie Buckley in 'The Bride!'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy Warner Bros. \t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>If\u00a0Project Hail Mary\u00a0is one of the biggest success stories of the first quarter of 2026, Maggie Gyllenhaal&#8217;s\u00a0The Bride\u00a0was among that calendar period&#8217;s biggest goats \u2014 not to be confused\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sonypicturesanimation.com\/projects\/films\/goat\">with that other\u00a0GOAT<\/a>. Boasting a reported $90 million price tag,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/hoppers-weekend-box-office-prediction-the-bride\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the movie struggled commercially and critically<\/a>, although\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/jessie-buckley-the-bride-hamnet-oscar-norbit-effect\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">star Jessie Buckley avoided a\u00a0Norbit\u00a0situation<\/a>\u00a0thanks to Warner Bros. helpfully delaying the release until\u00a0after\u00a0the final Oscar voting window, ensuring her\u00a0Hamnet\u00a0victory would continue unimpeded. For the record,\u00a0The Bride!\u00a0does have its admirers who appreciate the audacity of Gyllenhaal&#8217;s ambition in spite of the movie&#8217;s mixed execution. But that cult isn&#8217;t big enough to get this particular bride down the aisle to an Oscar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Josephine<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Josephine-Still_1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Gemma Chan, Mason Reeves and Channing Tatum appear in 'Josephine'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy Sundance Institute\/Greta Zozula\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>In terms of film festival superstars from the first half of 2026, there&#8217;s one big name you need to remember:\u00a0Josephine. Writer-director\u00a0Beth de Ara\u00fajo&#8217;s\u00a0sophomore\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/sundance-film-festival-2026-award-winners-josephine\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">feature hit the Sundance jackpot<\/a>, picking up both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the U.S. Dramatic Competition. It&#8217;s first movie to score both those honors since\u00a0CODA\u00a0back in 2021&#8230; and we all know how that played out.\u00a0Josephine\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/2026-berlin-film-festival-slate-oscar-race\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">also posted positive notices at the Berlin Film Festival<\/a>\u00a0and was\u00a0<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/deadline.com\/2026\/02\/sumerian-pictures-us-rights-josephine-1236724964\/\">subsequently acquired by newbie distributor Sumerian Pictures<\/a>. While the film&#8217;s difficult subject matter could be a barrier to entry for some audiences,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/josephine-sundance-channing-tatum-instant-oscar-predictions\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">there is a path towards Oscar contention<\/a>\u00a0in certain categories, led by a potential first-time Best Supporting Actor nod for Channing Tatum who was overlooked for his\u00a0Jerry Maguire-esque star turn\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2025\/roofman-channing-tatum-kirsten-dunst-oscar-predictions\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">in last year&#8217;s underappreciated\u00a0Roofman<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Wuthering Heights<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"174\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Elordi-Robbie-Wuthering-Heights.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie in 'Wuthering Heights'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Warner Bros.\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi got pulses racing on the press tour for\u00a0Saltburn\u00a0mastermind Emerald Fennell&#8217;s appropriately salty take on the vintage Emily Bront\u00eb novel. But after all that build-up, the movie itself didn&#8217;t exactly cause critics or audiences to swoon, posting solid, but not exceptional, box-office grosses\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/wuthering-heights-margot-robbie-jacob-elordi-critics\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">and Rotten Tomatoes scores<\/a>. Breaking into the major races was always going to be a stretch, but the mixed reaction to\u00a0Wuthering Heights\u00a0suggests that it may not be as competitive in the craft categories\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/wuthering-heights-margot-robbie-jacob-elordi-2027-oscar-odds\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">as we initially thought<\/a>, especially with more period pictures on the horizon from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2025\/the-odyssey-way-too-early-oscar-predictions-christopher-nolan\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Odyssey<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/sundance-2026-20-awards-contenders\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wicker<\/a>. Even the Charli xcx songs have struggled to stay top of mind&#8230; or top of the charts.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: The Christophers<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"160\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/MCDCHRI_EC089.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Ian McKellen in 'The Christophers'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Neon\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Ian McKellen may be an acting wizard, but he has yet to grasp that One Statuette to rule them all. The beloved stage and screen veteran is 0-for-2 when it comes to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/t\/oscars\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oscars<\/a>, with a lone 1999 Best Actor nomination for\u00a0Gods and Monsters\u00a0and a 2002 Best Supporting Actor nod for\u00a0The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. After a lengthy hiatus from main character parts in major motion pictures,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/the-christophers-ian-mckellen-ed-solomon-interview\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">McKellen scores a memorable lion-in-winter star turn as a reclusive artist<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0The Christophers, which hails from the dynamic duo of director Steven Soderbergh and screenwriter Ed Solomon. It&#8217;s a juicy part and the actor makes a meal out of it to the delight of festival audiences from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2025\/the-christophers-reviews-ian-mckellen-steven-soderbergh\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Toronto<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/tv\/2026\/hacks-poetic-license-schmigadoon-oscars-emmys-tonys\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sonoma<\/a>, where\u00a0The Christophers\u00a0just won the Audience Award for Best Film. Leave it to McKellen to paint his masterpiece at 86 years young.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Midwinter Break<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/4233_D009_00018_RC.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Ciar&#xE1;n Hinds and Lesley Manville in Midwinter Break\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Mark de Blok\/Focus Features\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of British acting legends overdue for Academy Award wins, Lesley Manville and Ciar\u00e1n Hinds \u2014 both of whom have one Oscar nod apiece, she for 2017&#8217;s\u00a0Phantom Thread\u00a0and he for 2021&#8217;s\u00a0Belfast\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/midwinter-break-lesley-manville-ciaran-hinds-interview\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">joined forces for this quiet, restrained marital drama<\/a>\u00a0from acclaimed theater director, Polly Findlay. Unfortunately, the movie is just a little\u00a0too\u00a0quiet and restrained to make any sort of noise in the awards race, especially with a mid-February berth. At least both actors got to enjoy an extended vacation in Amsterdam, and Manville added a Tony Award to her shelf thanks to her acclaimed performance in the Broadway hit Oedipus.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender: Ha-Chan Shake Your Booty!<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Ha_chan_Shake_Your_Booty-Still_1.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Rinko Kikuchi in 'Ha-Chan Shake Your Booty!'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Courtesy Sundance Institute\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Sony Pictures Classics has been keeping this particular Sundance acquisition out of the spotlight since Park City, but expect star Rinko Kikuchi&#8217;s dance card to fill up once the fall festival season approaches. Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her breakout role in 2006&#8217;s\u00a0Babel, the Japanese actress gets to show off both comedic and dramatic moves in Josef Kubota Wladyka&#8217;s well-reviewed feature, playing a widower who develops an unhealthy crush on her ballroom dance instructor. While the film&#8217;s protracted runtime occasionally leads it to trip over its own feet, Kikuchi delivers a crowdpleasing performance that may just sweep awards voters off\u00a0their\u00a0feet.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Hoppers<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782861454_477_Hoppers.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"'Hoppers'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Pixar\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Pixar&#8217;s mind-swapping romp succeeded at getting families into theaters in the early part of 2026, to the tune of $300 million worldwide. But thanks to the behemoth that is Toy Story 5, Hoppers\u00a0is destined to left in the company&#8217;s toy chest come awards season, especially with a number of other heavyweight animated contenders on the horizon like Laika&#8217;s latest stop motion feature Wildwood and Aardman&#8217;s eternally popular Shaun the Sheep series.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tContender:\u00a0Andr\u00e9 Is an Idiot<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"126\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/MCDANIS_EC003.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"'Andre is an Idiot'\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Joint Venture\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Debuting at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival, Tony Benna&#8217;s acclaimed documentary finally arrived in theaters earlier this March, which also happens to be National Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month. And that date isn&#8217;t at all coincidental given that the film depicts what happened to the titular &#8220;idiot,&#8221; ad exec Andr\u00e9 Ricciardi, after he skipped a colorectal screening and was subsequently diagnosed with Stage 4 colon cancer. As the title suggests, the film paints a darkly funny \u2014 and deeply emotional \u2014 portrait of Ricciardi&#8217;s battle with the disease that keeps it advocacy from tipping over into preachiness. Of all the Best Documentary contenders released so far this year,\u00a0Andr\u00e9 Is an Idiot\u00a0boasts the best title and the most memorable ending.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"pmc-fallback-list-item-wrap lrv-u-margin-b-2\">\n<p>\tPretender: Melania<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"158\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Melania_2026_003_CREDIT__Amazon_MGM_Studios.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Melania Trump pictured in 'Melania' documentary\"  \/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\tImage Credit: Amazon MGM Studios\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>Project Hail Melania? That appears to be the general tone and tenor of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/melania-trump-documentary-controversy-explained\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brett Ratner&#8217;s much-pilloried film<\/a>\u00a0about Melania Trump&#8217;s second time serving as America&#8217;s first lady. Given the reception, it&#8217;s unclear whether Amazon MGM intends even a cursory FYC campaign for\u00a0Melania. But at least one awards group already has it on their radar;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/razzie-awards-melania-documentary-eligible-worst-picture\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Razzies have announced that<\/a>\u00a0Ratner&#8217;s movie is a &#8220;shoo-in&#8221; for multiple 2027 dishonors.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We&#8217;ve officially hit 2026&#8217;s halfway mark, and while the Oscar race is still a couple months away from&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":562414,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[268],"tags":[166092,171812,434,125183,18,117,113812,240132,106660,19,17,147934,152232,19695,117039,34433,213153,105152,54558,34328,100467,77478,147936,99120,27669,31562],"class_list":["post-562413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-celebrities","tag-2027-oscars","tag-andre-is-an-idiot","tag-celebrities","tag-disclosure-day","tag-eire","tag-entertainment","tag-fjord","tag-ha-chan-shake-your-booty","tag-hoppers","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-josephine","tag-melania","tag-michael","tag-midwinter-break","tag-obsession","tag-paper-tiger","tag-project-hail-mary","tag-the-bride","tag-the-christophers","tag-the-devil-wears-prada-2","tag-the-drama","tag-the-invite","tag-the-super-mario-galaxy-movie","tag-toy-story-5","tag-wuthering-heights"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116841615777173090","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562413\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}