One thing that drives me crazy about everyone\u2019s fascination with Elon Musk\u2019s plan for Mars colonization is that the press hasn\u2019t done any homework or reasonability checks on his ideas. He postulates that we could put a million people on Mars and have a completely self-sufficient colony there. The popular press is enamored on the boldness of putting a million people on Mars and declares Musk to be a Great Visionary for proposing such a massive undertaking. But in this instance I think Musk is thinking way too small. \u00a0At out currently foreseeable level of technology I don\u2019t think a fully self-sustaining colony (requiring no support from Earth) could be done with anything less than 100 million people \u2013 100 times greater than Musk proposes. I haven\u2019t done a rigorous analysis, but intuitively there are huge problems in building a self-sustaining colony on Mars.<\/p>\n
The first and biggest problem is energy. Everything on Mars will require huge amounts of energy, and the potential sources of energy on Mars are quite limited. I can think of three sources \u2013 Mars geothermal, nuclear reactors, and solar. All have major issues. As far as Mars geothermal goes, it may not even be available at all. Mars is much smaller than Earth and has cooled off a lot more than Earth. Mars geothermal may only be available hundreds of miles below the surface, which makes it totally impractical.<\/p>\n
Problems also exist with nuclear power. We don\u2019t know where uranium is located on Mars, and if we find it, we would need to know there is enough to permanently supply everyone\u2019s needs. Then the uranium would need to be mined, smelted, refined, and enriched. Then put in a nuclear reactor built on Mars. Just these activities would require tens of thousands of people engaged in these activities, and that doesn\u2019t include all the support activities these folks would need. And eventually even uranium would be exhausted.<\/p>\n
That leaves solar. But Mars is twice as far from the sun as Earth. The laws of physics state that to generate as much electricity as a solar panel on Earth requires four times the surface area. Not twice \u2013 four times. You are looking at very large solar panel arrays to generate sufficient energy to power a colony. And Mars is cold \u2013 very cold. The average temperature on Mars is -80 degrees Fahrenheit. That means a significant amount of power generated must be used just to keep things warm. And there are lots of essential activities needed to run a civilization, all of them requiring lots of energy.<\/p>\n
The first thing is food. All food would need to be grown on Mars. I assume heated greenhouses could be possible, with supplemental lighting for photosynthesis. Fortunately oxygen is a byproduct of photosynthesis, so there\u2019s that. Still, there is a big investment in energy and labor to produce food. And most of these greenhouses would need to be provided with water, and the right combination of elements in the soil. \u00a0And constructed from local materials. Thus, there would be necessary industries to collect water, fabricate soil, make building materials, etc. And of course get silicon both to make glass and solar panels. And get essential trace elements to add to the silicon wafers that make solar panels. And mine iron ore, aluminum ore, copper, titanium, lead, zinc, tin, titanium, etc., etc. All these elements would need to be mined, smelted, formed, casted, shaped, and machined to make all the products an advanced civilization requires. And don\u2019t forget transportation to move all these materials around (Martian railroads?).\u00a0 And power transmission lines. And chemicals for plastics, oils, drugs, fertilizer, and so forth. And factories to manufacture solar panels, heavy equipment, electronics, vehicles, and so forth.<\/p>\n
This is not a complete list of all the activities modern civilizations need, but it begins to show the magnitude of the effort involved. Is there any country on Earth with a population of one million people that can do all of this? No, not even close. And small technically sophisticated countries on Earth specialize in a few things, sell those things, and buy everything else from other countries. And they don\u2019t have the handicap of living in -80 degrees Fahrenheit conditions.<\/p>\n
\u00a0I don\u2019t think 100 million people is an unrealistic number to need in order to have a colony that is completely self-sufficient. Musk is just a blowhard and a showman. His proposals for Martian colonization are total fantasy. Unfortunately people listen to him. Why is beyond me. Yes, he was right about Tesla but even a blind squirrel can find a few acorns.<\/p>\n
\tWe’ll get straight to the point: The financial hardships that Daily Kos is facing this year are tough.<\/p>\n
We continue to be paywall-free. We continue to be supported by our readers, not billionaires or corporations. But we need to bring in more revenue. We are leaning on our community more than ever to help make ends meet.<\/p>\n
\t\tPower matters.<\/p>\n