{"id":625234,"date":"2026-08-07T11:18:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T11:18:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/625234\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T11:18:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T11:18:43","slug":"world-geopolitics-and-weather-remain-unpredictable-as-crop-year-comes-to-a-close","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/625234\/","title":{"rendered":"World geopolitics and weather remain unpredictable as crop year comes to a close"},"content":{"rendered":"

A modest crop price rally through July appeared to run out of steam by month\u2019s end, but new crop pricing will have a little support from what looks like a smaller-than-expected supply of canola carried over into the new crop year.<\/p>\n

And given the volatile nature of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitical issues might yet push energy and crop prices higher<\/p>\n

The futures market for several crops in July was supported by a weather risk premium as much of the United States Midwest experienced hot and dry weather. The amount of U.S. corn considered good-to-excellent had dropped to 63 per cent as of July 25, below the 10-year average of 66 per cent and last year\u2019s 73 per cent.<\/p>\n

Also, fighting resumed in the Persian Gulf, rallying crude oil values, which spilled over into the crop market.<\/p>\n

However, a forecast for good rain in the American Midwest in the July 31 to Aug. 2 period lessened the weather premium for corn and soybeans. Signs of a good Canadian crop, albeit with delayed maturity in northern areas, weighed on canola.<\/p>\n

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As for energy markets, U.S. officials again \u201ctalked down\u201d the market late in the month by announcing new negotiations to end the stalemate over ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Surprisingly, the crude market is not yet panicked by how much various strategic petroleum reserves have fallen.<\/p>\n

Analysts noted extreme oil price spikes to $150 per barrel were avoided by drawing down national strategic petroleum reserves and by China curtailing oil demand.<\/p>\n

But there are signs Chinese oil imports are again picking up and global reserves are running low. For example, the U.S strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level in 43 years, close to what some believe is its minimum operating level.<\/p>\n

Still, crude oil remains volatile with the potential to jump higher again if fighting resumes in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea \u2014 and also if the Russia-Ukraine war gets worse, as attacks on shipping and ports in the Black Sea increased recently.<\/p>\n

Geopolitics and world weather can\u2019t be predicted, but one thing that is predictable is the calendar, and it shows the annual switch in the crop year is at hand.<\/p>\n

As I write this, the Canadian Grain Commission\u2019s most recent crop export report covers week 50 of the 2025-26 crop year to July 19.<\/p>\n

It shows the total amount of canola exported in the 50 weeks is 8.73 million tonnes.<\/p>\n

That already exceeds Agriculture Canada\u2019s forecast for full year exports of 8.5 million.<\/p>\n

In the final two weeks of the crop year canola exports will likely total 350,000 tonnes or more, so the total for the year could hit or exceed nine million tonnes.<\/p>\n

That is a little less than the 9.4 million tonnes shipped in 2024-25, but much better than predictions at the start of the crop year when China had punishing tariffs on canola imports.<\/p>\n

Domestic disappearance of canola is running well ahead of last year and appears poised to reach about 12.5 million, which is also a few hundred thousand more than the Agriculture Canada forecast.<\/p>\n

This means there is a possibility that year-end stocks could be smaller than the forecast 2.7 million tonnes, perhaps as low as two million.<\/p>\n

We will find out the final accounting in Statistics Canada\u2019s stocks of principal field crops report expected Sept. 9. That report often leads to a retroactive adjustment in the size of the previous summer\u2019s harvest, usually an increase.<\/p>\n

The weekly export report from the CGC also shows that shipments of wheat (excluding durum) could reach 23 million tonnes or more and be close to the record set last year of 23.44 million tonnes.<\/p>\n

One reason Canadian canola exporters weathered the storm of the Chinese tariffs was that they increased sales to other countries.<\/p>\n

Pakistan has returned to be a strong, second-tier buyer as it was until 2022.<\/p>\n

In that year, Pakistan began requiring that genetically modified crops come with an import licence. However, the country did not have a system to issue such licences.<\/p>\n

It took a couple of years to create the system, but in late 2025 it was in place and in January this year the first boatload under the new system arrived.<\/p>\n

As of June, Pakistan imported 667,500 tonnes of canola compared to zero last crop year.<\/p>\n

In July Canada\u2019s Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand visited Pakistan, where she signed a new protocol establishing predictable phytosanitary import conditions for Canadian canola.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s National Agri-Trade and Food Safety Authority and Environment Protection Agency and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency will also explore opportunities for technical co-operation and capacity building.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A modest crop price rally through July appeared to run out of steam by month\u2019s end, but new…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625235,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,12270,179,18,19,17],"class_list":["post-625234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-canola","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/117053955694385849","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625234\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}