{"id":628969,"date":"2026-08-09T18:24:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T18:24:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/628969\/"},"modified":"2026-08-09T18:24:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-09T18:24:24","slug":"its-now-or-never-is-the-eu-serious-about-letting-in-new-members-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/628969\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018It\u2019s now or never\u2019: Is the EU serious about letting in new members? \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

For 13 years, the club of European Union<\/a> nations has admitted no new members \u2014 and amid geopolitical instability and great-power competition, pressure is growing to open the gates again.<\/p>\n

Yet despite its desperation to project a sense of collective security and purpose in the face of Donald Trump\u2019s<\/a> provocations, Brussels is nonetheless wracked by uncertainty over potential expansion.<\/p>\n

As leaders of candidate countries demand faster progress in their membership bids, under pressure from impatient and restless voters, the EU\u2019s existing heads of government fret that the bloc\u2019s structure, and their own sceptical voters, are not able to handle fresh blood.<\/p>\n

The signs had looked good. After the shock of Russia\u2019s <\/a>invasion of Ukraine<\/a>, enlargement came to be seen as a security policy as well as a political one. Progress accelerated following a moribund decade, raising hopes of a new member in the next couple of years.<\/p>\n

\"EuropeanEuropean Council president Ant\u00f3nio Costa, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. Photograph: Benoit Doppagne\/ Belga Mag\/AFP via Getty Images <\/p>\n

Montenegro<\/a>, at the head of the queue, has finished more than half of the necessary reforms required to enter. EU governments have begun drafting their formal entry legislation, and the Balkan nation has been allocated billions of euros in the draft of the bloc\u2019s next shared budget.<\/p>\n

Ukraine and Moldova<\/a>, both menaced by Moscow, have begun the formal entry requirement negotiations, and Albania has started ticking off items on its reform to-do list. \u201cWe have a clear path towards the European Union,\u201d Albania\u2019s<\/a> prime minister Edi Rama says. \u201cThe country is in the best moment in many ways.\u201d<\/p>\n

The geopolitical chaos \u201ccreated a pressure moment to think seriously about what Europe is, and make a credible beneficial offer to aspiring members\u201d, says Ilir Deda, an analyst at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.<\/p>\n

In a bid to stress the EU\u2019s collective will to accept new members, the presidents of the European Commission<\/a> and the European Council, representing its administrative and political powers, in June described enlargement as \u201cone of the EU\u2019s greatest success stories\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"AA map of Europe and a list of European Union member states at the European Parliament in Brussels. Photograph: JC Milhet\/Hans Lucas\/AFP via Getty Images <\/p>\n

\u201cThe EU\u2019s offer of peace, stability and opportunity is unmatchable,\u201d said Ursula von der Leyen<\/a> and Ant\u00f3nio Costa<\/a> in a joint statement. \u201cEnlargement is a strategic choice.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet would-be entrants are beginning to wonder whether the EU\u2019s leaders are talking up an empty promise.<\/p>\n

Brussels is mulling wide-ranging changes to the accession process that would involve more gradual integration as countries progress. Viewed internally as a way to grow responsibly and build trust, these proposals are seen by some candidates as a path to a tiered membership system that could gum up the process even more.<\/p>\n

Many candidate countries are already avoiding unpopular or uncomfortable reforms because they don\u2019t trust Brussels\u2019 promises of rewards, while Brussels berates them for failing to pass necessary legislation.<\/p>\n

Aside from Montenegro and Albania, other aspirants in the western Balkans \u2014 Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo \u2014 have made little progress in recent years, and in some cases gone backwards.<\/p>\n

Some officials worry there is an unhealthy disconnect between the pro-enlargement rhetoric from von der Leyen and Costa and the reality, given that even Montenegro is still years away from actual membership.<\/p>\n

Yet there is a growing sense that the EU needs to show it is serious about letting in new members. \u201cIt\u2019s now or never,\u201d says Deda. A failure to act would have a \u201ccatastrophic impact, not only for [candidate countries], but for the EU too. The credibility of the EU will be hurt internally and globally. That scenario must be avoided at all costs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Big Bang<\/p>\n

The so-called Big Bang expansion of 2004, when 10 new members including Poland and Hungary joined the EU, marked the bloc\u2019s shift from an inward-looking western European core to a post-cold war future of eastern expansion.<\/p>\n

Yet in the decade after Croatia\u2019s entry in 2013, membership shrank \u2014 with the departure of the UK \u2014 rather than grew. The European Commission\u2019s then-president, Jean-Claude Juncker, in 2014 declared Brussels would \u201ctake a break from enlargement\u201d to digest the integration of its newest recruits.<\/p>\n

That rhetoric changed with China\u2019s growth as a superpower, then Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the return to power of Donald Trump and his mercurial attitude to Europe. EU countries realised the geopolitical importance of anchoring so-called grey-zone countries under the shared blue-and-yellow-starred flag.<\/p>\n

There has been tangible movement in that direction. Since December 2024, candidate countries have together closed 18 chapters in their respective alignment processes. That compares with just four chapters closed in the preceding decade.<\/p>\n

Montenegro is more than halfway through the 33 chapters. Ukraine and Moldova opened their first chapters in June, and Albania began closing its first chapters.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0\u2018Russia is a threat to everyone\u2019: Moldovan president on election interference and EU aspirationsOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Iceland, which applied for membership in 2009 but dropped its bid in 2015, is holding a referendum this month on whether to restart the process. Norway is mulling a third public consultation on a possible membership application.<\/p>\n

Marta Kos, the EU\u2019s enlargement commissioner, says adding new members used to be seen as an economic trade-off, with newcomers opening up their markets to existing members in exchange for development investment that rapidly expanded their GDP. Now, there\u2019s a prominent security and defence aspect.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s security blanket has for generations been provided by Nato, but Trump\u2019s changeable attitude to the alliance has led many capitals to question the transatlantic defence pact. While few believe the EU\u2019s mutual defence clause is analogous to Nato\u2019s article 5, the bloc is promoting itself as an alternative structure to co-ordinate security policy. Candidate countries Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Turkey are already Nato members.<\/p>\n

\u201cEnlargement isn\u2019t just for the candidates to catch up with us\u2009…\u2009today [it is] also a security policy. It is increasingly about how we Europeans can work together in the new realities of the world we live in,\u201d Kos says.<\/p>\n

Enlargement is about \u201creshaping Europe\u2019s political and security architecture to create a Europe capable of competing with other major global powers\u201d, she adds.<\/p>\n

Nowhere is that more obvious than in Ukraine, whose armed forces are among Europe\u2019s largest, best-armed and certainly most battle-hardened. EU member states want Kyiv and its formidable military on their team, not angrily sulking on the periphery.<\/p>\n

But those benefits come with a colossal flip side. EU officials admit that the scale of concerns over corruption, judicial independence and other fundamental bloc values means the country would not have been granted a formal accession process without Russia\u2019s invasion.<\/p>\n

\"EUEU vice-president for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas and Icelandic foreign affairs minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir during a signing ceremony for the EU-Iceland security and defence partnership in Brussels. Photograph: Nicolas Tucat\/AFP\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

That contradiction, and Kyiv\u2019s demand for a \u201cfast-track\u201d entry next year as part of a possible peace deal with Russia, have forced Brussels to seriously think whether a new approach to enlargement might be necessary to meet the new political realities.<\/p>\n

A stated goal of accession by January 1st, 2027, was a \u201ccry for help\u201d, says a senior EU official involved in the negotiations with Kyiv. \u201c[President Volodymyr] Zelenskiy knew it was impossible. But he needed to send an unambiguous signal to us, and also to Ukrainian citizens, that business as usual on accession would not cut it.\u201d<\/p>\n

A senior EU diplomat says Ukraine presents a complex dilemma. \u201cYou can\u2019t bring a country of 40 million people that\u2019s at 104 on the global corruption list into the EU. It would make a mockery of the entire project,\u201d the person says. \u201cBut you also can\u2019t leave them twisting in the wind. Everyone can see that Ukraine will need something from us to make [a long wait for full membership] easier to swallow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Frustration<\/p>\n

For people in the western Balkans, business as usual is no longer enough when it comes to accession.<\/p>\n

In the six countries of the region, the story of EU enlargement is a national cocktail of frustration, resentment and oft-dashed hopes \u2014 with a strong element of rivalry.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Ireland\u2019s EU membership story a compelling argument for expanding union, von der Leyen saysOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Brussels officials speak of deep annoyance at the lack of progress towards meeting long-established milestones necessary for membership, particularly in anti-corruption and anti-money laundering safeguards and public procurement rules. Each of their Balkan counterparts each has a long list of examples where Brussels did not keep up its end of the bargain.<\/p>\n

Serbia, the region\u2019s initial frontrunner for membership, saw its bid stall due to concerns over the rule of law and its alignment with Russia \u2014 including Belgrade\u2019s refusal to adopt the EU\u2019s sanctions against Moscow. Kosovo and Bosnia are not yet formal candidates; five EU states don\u2019t even recognise the former. Even Albania\u2019s progress over the past five years has been in fits and starts.<\/p>\n

But politicians across the EU and the Balkans hope Montenegro\u2019s momentum towards membership will make clear what is possible, and how to do it.<\/p>\n

The Montenegrin prime minister, Milojko Spaji\u0107, is bullish. \u201cEnlargement is drawing even closer,\u201d he said in July, after the country concluded chapters on EU competition policy and its customs union. \u201cWe are not merely meeting EU standards formally \u2014 we are embedding them in our country\u2019s development model.\u201d<\/p>\n

Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin believes Montenegro can close all of its negotiation chapters by the end of the year, under the Irish rotating EU presidency, leaving only ratification by existing members.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0The Irish Times view on Ireland\u2019s EU presidency: wildfires send a clear messageOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cWe think we can get them to a stage, more or less, of: \u2018Europe, over to you now. Are we going to let Montenegro in or not?\u2019,\u201d Martin says. \u201cIf we could get Montenegro in, it\u2019s a tangible sign to everybody else that this will work\u2009…\u2009It would be a moment in time if that could happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Taoiseach MicheálTaoiseach\u00a0Miche\u00e1l Martin with the president of Montenegro, Jakov\u00a0Milatovi\u0107, at Government Buildings earlier this year. Photograph: Bryan O\u2019Brien <\/p>\n

But the region\u2019s history of deep-seated nationalism and rivalry remains a concern in Brussels. An EU border that cuts through the Balkans would sever ethnic lines, hardening and potentially cementing divisions.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou cannot explain to any single person in Belgrade that Montenegro or Albania is ahead of us. No one would believe in that because people know the situation,\u201d Serbian president Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 says, citing his country\u2019s majority share of the region\u2019s GDP, highest exports to the EU and best living standards.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are the only relatively well-industrialised country with the biggest potential and capacities. We are the only country that has the real … important military capacities and defence industry capacities,\u201d says Vu\u010di\u0107.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe work on a daily basis with Europeans on all these reforms, from all the recommendations to regulatory agency issue to … anti-corruption laws and everything else,\u201d says Vu\u010di\u0107. \u201cWhether someone in Brussels might say different, it doesn\u2019t change the reality.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AA cross with the sign of the Serbian Orthodox Church on a flag of the European Union in Berane, Montenegro. Photograph: Pierre Crom\/Getty Images Hope<\/p>\n

For all the hope and expectation in candidate countries, the underlying question remains: is the EU itself ready for new members, regardless of whether new members are ready for the bloc?<\/p>\n

\u201cUkraine\u2019s biggest impact on the enlargement debate, by far, is making it clear just how unprepared we are for new members,\u201d says the senior EU official. \u201cWe need an internal reform commitment, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0EU ministers seek tougher migration response after Ceuta crisisOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

As enlargement rhetoric has gained momentum, capitals have studied ways to potentially amend the entry process, or even the final outcome.<\/p>\n

France and Germany have both circulated initial proposals that would offer a staged, gradual integration model, with membership benefits extended in exchange for reform milestones, rather than the existing system of full membership when the entire process is finished.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to evolve,\u201d says EU commissioner Kos. \u201cWe still are using the methodology which is, plus-minus, the same as it was 40 years back when Spain and Portugal joined the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n

In light of the French and German proposals, which received broadly lukewarm responses from the rest of the EU, Brussels is set to publish its own proposals on potential enlargement reform, including what Kos describes as a technical assessment of the impact of more members on EU operations and policies, and proposals for gradual integration.<\/p>\n

\u201cEnlargement is currently advancing at a speed we have not seen in the last 15 years,\u201d she says. \u201cThis needs leadership, and it needs the building of trust with all 27 of our member states.\u201d<\/p>\n

In candidate countries, the attitude towards possible halfway-house membership is mixed. Kyiv has broadly rejected anything short of full membership, while Belgrade has signalled openness to the idea.<\/p>\n

\u201cGive us open borders, give us [single] market, we need nothing else. And in order to get that, we are ready to align with European politics, but we need to get something as well from Europe,\u201d says Vu\u010di\u0107. \u201cNot to be told okay, you have to fulfil everything and then we\u2019ll decide whether to give you something or not.\u201d<\/p>\n

For the Balkans, a political decision to enlarge together, rather than a purely merit-based approach, would serve to diminish any cross-border tensions and fulfil the EU\u2019s original vision of uniting the continent in peace. Analysts also suggest that consequential rewards for reforms as they are happening would make the process appear irreversible and help smother arguments that membership is a mirage.<\/p>\n

\u201cCitizens have not believed that EU integration is a real possibility, regardless of the talk that Montenegro will join,\u201d says Deda. \u201cThis new energy by France and Germany outlining what each country needs to do\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009has enormous benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AA young Serbian man carries flags of Serbia and the EU. Photograph: Uros Arsic\/AFP via Getty Images <\/p>\n

\u201cThe dynamic in Bosnia, Kosovo, Serbia can change with a new enlargement offer,\u201d he adds. \u201cA sense of belonging\u2009.\u2009.\u2009.\u2009People will have no reason to rally around nationalists once they know that it might isolate countries and leave us out of this opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n

But inside the union, there are concerns that anything short of full membership for full legislative alignment could erode the core values of the bloc and its \u201cmerit-based\u201d dogma for membership.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn this argument between the merit-based approach or the more recently emerging ideas around association: we\u2019re going to be very focused on the merit-based, because I think it\u2019s the concrete reality at the moment,\u201d Martin says, citing the lack of \u201cunanimity or consensus\u201d on an alternative approach.<\/p>\n

Ireland is willing to \u201caccommodate and facilitate the debate\u201d, he adds. \u201cBut we\u2019re not going to be diverted from the task of completing the negotiations that Montenegro has entered into.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some officials also fear that discussions over the process of enlargement could ultimately just delay the ongoing applications at a moment when momentum is the highest it has been for more than a decade.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think this is something that right now looks like a plausible, doable idea,\u201d says Dimitar Keranov, visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. \u201cIt will delay things because the moment you start implementing or introducing some new processes it will be full of uncertainties\u2009…\u2009every new reform will need to first be tested.\u201d<\/p>\n

The current process is \u201cactually doing what it\u2019s supposed to do: rewarding the ones who do their homework\u201d, he adds. \u201cEnlargement is not a gift. It is an exam.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many inside and outside the EU see the remaining months of 2026 as the most critical moment for enlargement for a generation. If Montenegro can close its remaining chapters while the EU\u2019s existing members also agree on internal reforms to make a bigger union function smoothly, they say, a bigger and more geopolitically muscular union is possible.<\/p>\n

But should Brussels be dragged into internecine disagreements over what enlargement should look like and result in, patience among those waiting outside the red-velvet rope could well snap.<\/p>\n

That, says Martin, would only play into the hands of Europe\u2019s enemies. \u201cThe bottom line is: if Europe isn\u2019t proactive in the western Balkans or in the neighbourhood, others will be,\u201d he says. \u201cOthers will manipulate and distort.\u201d<\/p>\n

How to join the EU<\/p>\n

To become an EU member, each country must align its laws with the bloc\u2019s standards across 33 topics known as chapters, which are opened when reform negotiations formally begin, and closed when they are judged to have been completed. These are grouped in \u201cclusters\u201d:<\/p>\n

Cluster 1 – Fundamentals<\/p>\n

Five chapters including judicial independence, public procurement and democracy<\/p>\n

Cluster 2 – Internal market<\/p>\n

Nine chapters including free movement of goods, capital and workers, antitrust and consumer protection<\/p>\n

Cluster 3 – Competitiveness and inclusive growth<\/p>\n

Eight chapters including the EU customs union, tax and industrial policy<\/p>\n

Cluster 4 – Green agenda and sustainability<\/p>\n

Four chapters including energy and transport policy<\/p>\n

Cluster 5 – Resources, agriculture and cohesion<\/p>\n

Five chapters including fisheries, farming and regional development<\/p>\n

Cluster 6 – External relations<\/p>\n

Two clusters covering foreign and security policy, including sanctions<\/p>\n

– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For 13 years, the club of European Union nations has admitted no new members \u2014 and amid geopolitical…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":628970,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[41],"tags":[39631,83962,239204,9,10,84290,4893,13,14,6,25126,159594,11,12,15,16,5765,33111,210613,5,105394,379,550,11654,7,8,2264,4894,65,66,67],"class_list":["post-628969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world","tag-albania","tag-antonio-costa","tag-bosnia","tag-breaking-news","tag-breakingnews","tag-croatia","tag-eu","tag-featured-news","tag-featurednews","tag-headlines","tag-hungary","tag-kosovo","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-main-news","tag-mainnews","tag-micheal-martin","tag-moldova","tag-montenegro","tag-news","tag-north-macedonia","tag-poland","tag-russia","tag-serbia","tag-top-stories","tag-topstories","tag-ukraine-crisis","tag-ursula-von-der-leyen","tag-world","tag-world-news","tag-worldnews"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=628969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/628970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=628969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=628969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=628969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}