{"id":630082,"date":"2026-08-10T11:59:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T11:59:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/630082\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T11:59:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T11:59:09","slug":"the-long-term-fate-of-earths-biosphere-sciworthy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/630082\/","title":{"rendered":"The long-term fate of Earth\u2019s biosphere \u2013 Sciworthy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The economist John Maynard Keynes once remarked, \u201cIn the long run we are all dead.<\/a>\u201d From an astronomical standpoint, this is true for the Earth itself. In roughly 5 billion years, the Sun will exhaust the hydrogen at its core and enter the next phase of its life as a Red Giant<\/a>, where it will swell up large enough to engulf and destroy the Earth.<\/p>\n

Currently, the Sun is still in its main-sequence<\/a> phase, where it fuses hydrogen into helium in its core. Although it remains relatively stable during this phase, it will gradually grow brighter with time. As the Sun shines brighter, the increased heat and radiation will raise Earth\u2019s surface temperature, potentially pushing it past the threshold for life to survive.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One of Earth\u2019s geological processes that helps regulate its surface temperature is the carbon cycle<\/a>. Over millions of years, carbon moves from the Earth\u2019s interior into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or CO2, where it functions as a greenhouse gas that traps heat. Plants take in this CO2 through photosynthesis and move carbon through the biosphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, rain and rock weathering draw carbon into the oceans and rocks. By pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere, the carbon cycle could mitigate Earth\u2019s warming as the Sun brightens over time. Today,\u00a0 human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 and warming the planet. However, over billions of years, the carbon cycle could gradually remove enough CO2 from the atmosphere that eventually too little would remain to support photosynthesis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With these challenges to life on Earth in mind, the researchers Jacob Haqq\u2010Misra and Eric Wolf investigated how long Earth\u2019s biosphere could last in the distant future. The team used computer models to calculate the balance of energy that Earth would receive and emit over time, accounting for the effects of increasing sunlight and changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. They followed this up with calculations using the ExoCAM<\/a> model to determine the temperature and atmospheric conditions of future Earth across different latitudes. They related these conditions to a habitability metric to determine their impact on the biosphere.<\/p>\n

To estimate the biosphere\u2019s maximum possible lifespan, the team conducted 29 simulations representing the planet\u2019s conditions over the next 2 billion years. In one set of simulations, the Earth\u2019s carbon cycle contributed little to regulating surface temperature, with the atmosphere\u2019s CO2 concentration fixed at approximately modern levels of 400 parts per million (ppm) and surface temperatures continuing to increase. In another, the carbon cycle worked to keep Earth\u2019s average surface temperature fixed at the modern average of approximately 59\u2109 (15\u2103), no matter how much it had to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the scenario with a fixed CO2 concentration, the team found that in 1.7 billion years, Earth\u2019s surface reached an average of 122\u00b0F\u00a0(50\u00b0C), which is too hot for most land plants. After 1.9 billion years, it reached 149\u00b0F\u00a0(65\u00b0), becoming too hot for all land plants to survive as temperatures continued to rise.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They also found that in the fixed average surface temperature scenario, atmospheric CO2 dropped below the 150 ppm level that most plants<\/a> require for photosynthesis within 500 million years. After 1.4 billion years, CO2 levels fell below 10 ppm, leaving only a few land photosynthesizers<\/a> and aquatic plants alive. After about 1.8 billion years, atmospheric CO2\u00a0dropped to 1 ppm, leaving only microbes capable of photosynthesis.<\/p>\n

The researchers\u2019 findings generally extend the estimated lifetime of Earth\u2019s future biosphere compared with earlier, simpler models that suggested maximum lifespans of 100 million to 1.5 billion years. However, they clarified that other scientists should verify their results by running tests with other models, especially under extreme conditions of high incoming solar radiation and low atmospheric CO2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Lastly, Haqq\u2010Misra and Wolf noted that their model did not account for major evolutionary changes that could help life adapt to future conditions. Over time, plants could evolve to tolerate higher temperatures or lower atmospheric CO2 levels. Future humans or another intelligent species might also engage in large-scale geoengineering projects to prevent the end of life on Earth. If life on Earth proves adaptable enough, the biosphere may endure until a Red Giant fills the daytime sky.<\/p>\n

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