A shopper carries a basket of products at a grocery store in Wilmington, North Carolina, US, on Saturday, Aug. 8, 2026. <\/p>\n
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n
Prediction market traders expect July’s consumer price index will be relatively tame, coming in below the Dow Jones consensus forecast.<\/p>\n
Monday’s odds on Kalshi show traders see a less than 55% likelihood that July’s CPI reading comes in above 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. They see a 15% chance that CPI comes in hotter than 3.4%. <\/p>\n
The event contract on Kalshi, asking what will be the year-over-year rate for July’s CPI, will be verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<\/p>\n
In comparison, economists polled by Dow Jones see the headline inflation number coming in at 3.4%, slightly cooler than the 3.5% rate reported in June.<\/p>\n
The CPI<\/a> measures the average change over time in consumer prices for goods and services.\u00a0It’s a significant report for the Federal Reserve<\/a>, which will consider the data when policymakers decide how to proceed on rates at their next meeting in September. <\/p>\n The annual inflation rate in June came at 3.5%<\/a> which was less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.8%. June’s CPI also fell 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, which was the biggest decline<\/a> in more than six years thanks to a temporary drop in energy prices.<\/p>\n In a separate event contract, Kalshi traders see a 47% likelihood that July’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, comes in above 2.4%. They see just an 11% chance that it is above 2.5%.\u00a0<\/p>\n In comparison, the Dow Jones consensus estimate for core inflation calls for a 2.5% increase in July over the past 12 months. That compares to June’s reading of 2.6%. <\/p>\n The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the CPI report on Wednesday morning.<\/p>\n Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<\/p>\n