{"id":630824,"date":"2026-08-10T21:16:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T21:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/630824\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T21:16:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T21:16:09","slug":"how-the-market-may-react-to-julys-cpi-report-according-to-jpmorgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/630824\/","title":{"rendered":"How the market may react to July&#8217;s CPI report, according to JPMorgan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks could be in for some notable swings on Wednesday after July&#8217;s consumer price index reading, according to JPMorgan. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate headline CPI rose 0.1% in the month, bringing its 12-month gain to 3.4%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI is expected to have gained 0.2% from June and 2.5% compared with a year ago. JPMorgan&#8217;s trading desk said the stakes are high heading into this week&#8217;s inflation readings. That&#8217;s because the latest data could be key for the Federal Reserve when determining whether to hike rates at its policy meeting in September. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 52% chance that the central bank hikes rates, according to CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool. The U.S. &#8220;has dodged the proverbial bullet from the Middle East conflict in terms of seeing an inflation spike,&#8221; the trading desk wrote in a note. &#8220;Now, the market will want to see evidence that Core inflation remains sticky or if another period of disinflation is possible.&#8221; Here&#8217;s the potential outcomes for the S &amp; P 500 based on the core CPI&#8217;s month-over-month move: Core month-over-month above 0.3%, 5% probability: The S &amp; P 500 could decline between 1.5% and 2.5%. Core month-over-month between 0.25% and 0.3%, 25% probability: The S &amp; P 500 may slide by between 0.5% and 1.25%. Core month-over-month between 0.2% and 0.25%, 40% probability: The S &amp; P 500 rises in the range of 0.25% and 0.75%. Core month-over-month within 0.15% and 0.2%, 25% probability: The S &amp; P 500 adds 0.5% to 1%. Core month-over-month below 0.15%, 5% probability, 5% probability: The S &amp; P 500 jumps between 1% and 2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Stocks could be in for some notable swings on Wednesday after July&#8217;s consumer price index reading, according to&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":630825,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,207,179,18,19,204,17,4057,190,205],"class_list":["post-630824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-business-news","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-ie","tag-investment-strategy","tag-ireland","tag-prices","tag-sp-500-index","tag-stock-markets"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/117073293318683703","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=630824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/630824\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/630825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=630824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=630824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=630824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}