{"id":65272,"date":"2025-09-15T10:48:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T10:48:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/65272\/"},"modified":"2025-09-15T10:48:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T10:48:08","slug":"knight-frank-cuts-forecast-for-price-growth-this-year-and-next-mortgage-finance-gazette","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/65272\/","title":{"rendered":"Knight Frank cuts forecast for price growth this year and next \u2013 Mortgage Finance Gazette"},"content":{"rendered":"

Knight Frank has lowered its forecast for UK house price growth in 2025 to 1%, down from its prediction of 3.5% in May.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t \"house-prices-November-suburbs-620x330.jpg\"\/ <\/p>\n

The estate agency has also downgraded its forecast for 2026 growth from 4% to 3%.<\/p>\n

But its analysts expect rents to increase by marginally more than previously thought as a result of the \u201cunintended consequences\u201d of government reforms.<\/p>\n

In today\u2019s update, head of UK residential research Tom Bill says: \u201cA combination of high supply and faltering confidence means we now expect slower UK house price growth this year and in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n

Over-supply of listings keeps prices in check<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bill points to factors such as April\u2019s stamp duty changes<\/a> and US president Trump\u2019s tariff wars as having distorted the mainstream market earlier this year.<\/p>\n

He says: \u201cThe market spent the next few months getting back on its feet, helped by a stable rate environment and the presence of sub-4% mortgages.<\/p>\n

\u201cMortgage rates have moved little in either direction since January despite three Bank of England cuts, largely because the reductions were priced in.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, prices have come under pressure because demand hasn\u2019t kept pace with supply, which has remained high thanks to a hangover of stock from the April stamp duty cliff edge, the appearance of listings delayed from 2024 due to the general election and a growing number of landlords who are selling due to the tougher regulatory environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

The number of new prospective buyers in the UK was 8% lower in the year to August compared to the previous 12 months, while new sales listings increased by 6% over the same period.<\/p>\n

Bill says: \u201cThat imbalance, combined with a general sense of hesitation as November\u2019s Budget approaches, has driven our modest short-term downgrades for UK and Greater London house prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prime forecasts impacted by tax speculation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Knight Frank is now predicting a 4% drop in prime central London prices this year, down from 0% in May, followed by a flat market in 2026.<\/p>\n

It expects prime country prices to fall by 5% in 2025, after previously forecasting 2.5% growth in its May outlook.<\/p>\n

However, it believes that prime country house prices will return to growth next year, increasing by 2% in 2026.<\/p>\n

Knight Frank\u2019s downgrades to prime London and country forecasts have been driven mainly by speculation over property and wealth taxes.<\/p>\n

Reforms to drive rents higher<\/strong><\/p>\n

Knight Frank has increased its forecast for rent rises next year from 3.5% to 4% in\u00a0 prime central and outer London.<\/p>\n

Bill says: \u201cThe upwards pressure on rents is partly the result of landlords selling ahead of the Renters Rights Bill, which could make regaining possession of a property more onerous and raises the risk of void periods.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe prospect of stricter green regulations have also made landlords consider their options.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd that was before the recent speculation around plans to charge national insurance on rental income.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Knight Frank has lowered its forecast for UK house price growth in 2025 to 1%, down from its…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65273,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[79,18,19,17,188],"class_list":{"0":"post-65272","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland","12":"tag-markets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65272\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}