{"id":663370,"date":"2026-08-30T08:33:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T08:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/663370\/"},"modified":"2026-08-30T08:33:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T08:33:31","slug":"no-country-for-old-people-irelands-declining-younger-population-suggests-it-might-be-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/663370\/","title":{"rendered":"No country for old people? Ireland\u2019s declining younger population suggests it might be \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

For years, Ireland<\/a> has sold itself as a young, vibrant place \u2013 an ideal location for wandering multinational businesses looking for an English-speaking workforce<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Yet, according to the population estimates published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO<\/a>) this week, the State\u2019s age profile has been shifting \u2013 and faster than expected.<\/p>\n

For the first time since 2014, the number of people living in the State under the age of 14 has fallen below the one million mark. Now standing at 992,400, this age group has seen its share of the population fall from 20 per cent in 2020 to 18 per cent in 2026 \u2013 a drop of 21,300.<\/p>\n

At the same time, those aged over 65 now account for a larger share. <\/p>\n

An additional 165,000 are now in this category \u2013 a figure that has grown from 14.4 per cent in 2020 \u2013 to 16.1 per cent in 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a bit like climate change where we talked about it being in the future,\u201d says Alan Barrett, director of the Economic and Social Research Institute, \u201cand all of a sudden the future is beginning to catch up on us.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe increase in the number of older people was well flagged, but fertility rates in Ireland have fallen more quickly than we anticipated. Population ageing is now a reality\u201d.<\/p>\n

Barrett is referring to figures published at the end of last year. <\/p>\n

The CSO recorded Ireland\u2019s fertility rate \u2013 the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime \u2013 as being 1.5 in 2025. Ten years earlier that figure was much higher, at 1.9.<\/p>\n

He says there are several immediate implications.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Population rises to 5.5m but the number of births continues to declineOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is obviously the pension issue, but healthcare comes up as another one,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not just that there are more people over the age of 65 \u2013 but that there are more people over the age of 80. Issues around long term care come into focus as well\u201d.<\/p>\n

Barrett says thinking around how Ireland would eventually deal with the financial and social impacts of an ageing population have been around since the end of the last century.<\/p>\n

He points to the \u201cmuch maligned Charlie McCreevy\u201d \u2013 the former Fianna F\u00e1il minister for finance who served in this office from 1997 to 2004 \u2013 as having the right idea when he established the ill-fated National Pensions Reserve Fund in 2001. This was designed to store away interest-earning money so that a burgeoning future pensions bill could be met.<\/p>\n

\"CharlieCharlie McCreevy: The then minister for finance before the announcement of Budget 2000, which helped to establish the National Pensions Reserve Fund. Photograph: Frank Miller <\/p>\n

It was eventually raided as part of the national bailout programme when the State teetered on the edge of bankruptcy in 2010-11 following the economic crash and banking collapse.<\/p>\n

Barrett says that if 1 per cent of national gross domestic product had been put into the fund each year as planned, it would be significantly larger now than the two sovereign wealth funds recently established by the Government.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou think back as well to Mary Hanafin, who had pre-announced the delaying of the retirement age to 68,\u201d he says, referring to the then minister for social affairs. <\/p>\n

Hanafin\u2019s plan, announced in 2010, envisaged the qualification ages for the State pension increasing from 65 to 68 by the year 2028.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat was another policy that would have curtailed the expenses related to the State pension, but we junked that as well\u201d.<\/p>\n

Jim Stewart, adjunct professor in finance at Trinity College Dublin, has grappled with the looming pensions issue for a long time.<\/p>\n

He believes the faster than anticipated fall in Ireland\u2019s fertility rate might bring forward the State\u2019s demographic profile by \u201cfive or 10 years\u201d from where it was previously assumed.<\/p>\n

But the fundamental issue will not have changed.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople who are currently in their 30s and 40s will have to consider what their retirement plans are going to be,\u201d he says. <\/p>\n

Echoing Barrett, Stewart sees generations of people coming through who simply won\u2019t have the means to retire at 65, and will have to continue working.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an issue that will increasingly be faced by retirees who don\u2019t have the money to retire on,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no doubt that longer working lives will have to happen. You can make it voluntary \u2013 you can\u2019t have someone who has been working on a building site for 50 years who is physically knackered continuing to do that \u2013 so it will involve changes in the workplace and will have to be facilitated.<\/p>\n

\n

Bringing up a child in Ireland is very, very tough. You have child-minding fees along with a work ethos that is not friendly towards working mothers at all, particularly within the US multinational sector<\/p>\n

\u2014 \u00a0Prof Jim Stewart<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cIt creates problems for employers who have been waiting for someone to retire who they then can\u2019t get rid of.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stewart identifies a group of workers who, by the time retirement rolls around, will either not have paid off their mortgage or who will still be renting. <\/p>\n

This, he says, combined with defined contribution pensions that are linked to stock market performance, creates potentially precarious golden years.<\/p>\n

He is \u201csceptical\u201d of the ability of auto-enrolment to deliver the savings needed.<\/p>\n

\u201cA \u2018pay as you go\u2019 system from the point of view of a pensioner is much less risky,\u201d he says. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe State has other resources to pay the pensions. With funded pensions they have to be collected, you then have to manage the funds; they are more expensive to administer. <\/p>\n

\u201cWith funded pensions you are basically saying past returns are indicators of future returns. The stock markets are a risky return \u2013 yes they have performed quite well over the past 10 years but there have been periods when they have not. It\u2019s not sure-fire at all.\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Northern Ireland\u2019s ageing population: Why pensioners will soon outnumber childrenOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Beyond permitting people to work past the age of 65, there are other possible ways of balancing out an ageing population.<\/p>\n

In Singapore, so alarmed are the authorities about the country\u2019s falling birth rate \u2013 they recently unveiled a package of measures worth more than $55,000 (\u20ac47,000) per child to encourage people to have more children.<\/p>\n

The city-state registered a fertility rate of 0.87 children per woman last year, spurring its government into action.<\/p>\n

\"SingaporeSingapore recently unveiled a package of measures worth more than \u20ac47,000 per child to encourage people to have more children <\/p>\n

Stewart says it will take more than money to make a difference to Ireland\u2019s falling birth rate.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no doubt that bringing up a child in Ireland is very, very tough,\u201d he says. \u201cYou have child-minding fees along with a work ethos that is not friendly towards working mothers at all, particularly within the US multinational sector. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019ll need much more family friendly policies \u2013 not just a stack of cash. You need to make it easier for people to have children.\u201d<\/p>\n

And then there is inward migration. <\/p>\n

It has been suggested that Ireland will have to rely on a large number of foreign workers in order to support the growing needs of the older population in the years ahead.<\/p>\n

Nat O\u2019Connor, an assistant professor of social policy at University College Dublin, says: \u201cIf we stopped migration today, the ageing population story would hit us like a tonne of bricks.\u201d<\/p>\n

O\u2019Connor says key workers in healthcare are predominantly non-EU workers coming from south Asia and they play a crucial role in maintaining vital services.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Ireland\u2019s ageing population \u2018standstill costs\u2019 reach extra \u20ac3bn a yearOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cThe majority of migrant workers pay a bunch of taxes, don\u2019t use a lot of services and then leave again,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

However, O\u2019Connor points out that many of those who stay here for the long term are renters too \u2013 and in their retirement years will still be renting their homes. This will put an additional burden on the State by means of housing assistance. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat is coming down the track,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Another area already being affected by the falling birth rate is schooling and education.<\/p>\n

The number of children attending primary school is projected to drop by 100,000, or almost a fifth, over the next decade, according to the Department of Education\u2019s latest estimates. <\/p>\n

O\u2019Connor believes many school mergers are being driven by the need to consolidate and remain viable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere have been some cases where girls and boys schools have been put together \u2013 that is part of that consolidation,\u201d he says. \u201cIt is not just about the modernity of having mixed sex schools\u201d.<\/p>\n

In light of all this, O\u2019Connor is scathing in his criticism of current Government taxation and spending policies.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s incredibly foolish what the Government is doing at the moment with the public finances,\u201d he says. \u201cIt is only saving a tiny amount. The whole thing about tax cuts \u2013 looking constantly for more cuts \u2013 is totally unsustainable. <\/p>\n

\u201cThey are cutting the taxes of people in their 40s and 50s who are at the height of their earning power, who will then be retiring and actually voting to raise taxes in 20 years\u2019 time. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat will be a political disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For years, Ireland has sold itself as a young, vibrant place \u2013 an ideal location for wandering multinational…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":663371,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[40],"tags":[9,10,1412,18,38419,13,14,6,19,17,11,12,15,16,5,2987,7,8,63,15913],"class_list":["post-663370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ireland","tag-breaking-news","tag-breakingnews","tag-central-statistics-office","tag-eire","tag-esri","tag-featured-news","tag-featurednews","tag-headlines","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-main-news","tag-mainnews","tag-news","tag-pension","tag-top-stories","tag-topstories","tag-trinity-college-dublin-tcd","tag-ucd"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/117183539613653301","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=663370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/663370\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=663370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=663370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=663370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}