{"id":667580,"date":"2026-09-01T21:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T21:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/667580\/"},"modified":"2026-09-01T21:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T21:33:24","slug":"el-nino-is-stronger-than-at-any-point-in-the-past-1000-years-coral-records-reveal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/667580\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is stronger than at any point in the past 1,000 years, coral records reveal"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul class=\"MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-paragraph list css-q3r3pl\" data-og-block-area=\"article-blocks\" data-og-block-nth=\"1\" data-og-block-type=\"core\/list\" data-rawhtml=\"1\">\n<li class=\"MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-body1 css-1pbbt52\">El Ni\u00f1o variability in the eastern Pacific has increased by about 36.5% compared with the pre-industrial era, according to a 1,000-year coral record from the Gal\u00e1pagos Islands.<\/li>\n<li class=\"MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-body1 css-1pbbt52\">The sharpest increase occurred in recent decades and exceeds the range that climate models produced from natural forces such as volcanic eruptions and solar changes.<\/li>\n<li class=\"MuiTypography-root MuiTypography-body1 css-1pbbt52\">The findings suggest a warming climate may be strengthening El Ni\u00f1o extremes, raising concerns about heavier floods, drought, wildfire, food insecurity and other hazards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>An <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrighterside.news\/post\/mega-el-nino-caused-earths-largest-ever-mass-extinction-study-finds\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> of potentially historic strength is gathering force across the tropical Pacific, and signs of the warming have already reached Southern California. Water temperatures off Santa Barbara climbed into the low 70s Fahrenheit in late August, while anglers reported catching dorado and yellowtail around the Channel Islands.<\/p>\n<p>Those unusually warm waters arrive alongside evidence that something more fundamental may be changing. El Ni\u00f1o events in the eastern Pacific have become about 36.5% stronger than during the pre-industrial era, according to a study published in Science. The largest increase has occurred during the past four decades.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers reached that conclusion by building a roughly 1,000-year history of Pacific Ocean temperatures from living and ancient corals collected in the Gal\u00e1pagos Islands. The reconstruction indicates that modern El Ni\u00f1o variability stands apart from anything recorded during the centuries before industrialization.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe show that the strength of El Ni\u00f1o changes in parallel with the warming of global temperature,\u201d said lead author Julia Cole, professor and chair of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lsa.umich.edu\/earth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">University of Michigan\u2019s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences<\/a>. \u201cOur findings tell us that the big El Ni\u00f1o events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Gal\u00e1pagos Islands are known for their astounding biodiversity, a result of high nutrients and the mixing of cool and warm waters, according to Julia Cole, chair of the University of Michigan Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. (CREDIT: Greg Asner) A natural cycle with global consequences<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o begins with changes in the tropical Pacific. Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm surface water westward from South America toward Australia. When those winds weaken, warm water spreads back toward the eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n<p>Atmospheric circulation changes with it. Heavy rainfall shifts away from Indonesia toward the central Pacific, which can weaken the trade winds further and reinforce El Ni\u00f1o conditions. An event can persist for one to two years, even though its effects reach far beyond the tropical ocean where it begins.<\/p>\n<p>In the western United States, a strong El Ni\u00f1o tends to push the jet stream farther south, directing more atmospheric-river storms toward California instead of the Pacific Northwest. \u201cA big El Ni\u00f1o tends to mean wet winters for us in Southern California,\u201d said co-author Samantha Stevenson, an assistant professor at <a href=\"https:\/\/bren.ucsb.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">UC Santa Barbara\u2019s Bren School of Environmental Science &amp; Management<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere, shifts associated with El Ni\u00f1o can contribute to drought, floods, wildfire, agricultural losses and disease. The concern is not simply that these events occur, but whether their strongest forms are becoming more extreme as global temperatures rise.<\/p>\n<p>A climate history locked inside coral<\/p>\n<p>Direct measurements offer only a short view of El Ni\u00f1o. Systematic observations of sea surface temperatures across the remote tropical Pacific became much stronger with satellite measurements beginning in the 1980s, leaving scientists with a relatively brief instrumental record for a naturally erratic system.<\/p>\n<p>Ancient corals like these at Urvina Bay in the western Gal\u00e1pagos preserve a history of ocean temperature going back millennia. (CREDIT: Julia Cole, University of Michigan) <\/p>\n<p>The researchers extended that history using corals from five islands in the Gal\u00e1pagos, a region where eastern Pacific El Ni\u00f1o temperature anomalies are especially strong. Their analysis included 28 time series produced from modern and subfossil corals, with individual records selected to capture decades of ocean conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Corals add layers of calcium carbonate as they grow, preserving chemical traces of the water around them. The team measured ratios of strontium to calcium and different oxygen isotopes in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrighterside.news\/post\/new-marine-discovery-could-help-scientists-stave-off-coral-reef-collapse\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">coral skeletons<\/a>, both of which can provide information about past seawater temperatures.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThanks to these new coral reconstructions, we can go farther back in the eastern Pacific&#8217;s past than we ever could before,\u201d Stevenson said. \u201cWhen we do that, we see that El Ni\u00f1o has been getting stronger, and that the changes have really taken off in the past few hundred years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The pattern remained relatively subdued from about 1000 to 1850. Variability began climbing after the 19th century, then rose sharply during the modern era. The researchers calculated that eastern Pacific El Ni\u00f1o variability is now 36.5%, plus or minus 8%, greater than in the pre-industrial period. It is also 16.2%, plus or minus 10%, greater than during the 20th century before the modern benchmark period.<\/p>\n<p>Strong warm events drive the increase<\/p>\n<p>The coral chemistry also revealed a shift toward stronger warm extremes. Rather than simply showing larger swings in both directions, the modern record became increasingly weighted toward powerful El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<\/p>\n<p>That distinction matters because particularly strong El Ni\u00f1os can carry larger <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrighterside.news\/post\/study-reveals-hidden-role-of-permafrost-in-ancient-climate-change\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">climate impacts<\/a>. The recent rise in variability closely tracked increasing global temperatures, with the most dramatic amplification appearing in roughly the past 40 years.<\/p>\n<p>Ancient corals like these at Urvina Bay in the western Gal\u00e1pagos preserve a history of ocean temperature going back millennia. (CREDIT: Julia Cole, University of Michigan) <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe kept adding records thinking \u2018well, this is going to get more complicated,\u2019 but it really didn&#8217;t,\u201d Cole said. \u201cThis is such a clear story.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Coral records from the central Pacific also showed stronger modern variability, although the distinction between modern and pre-industrial conditions was less pronounced there. That geographical difference is consistent with climate simulations suggesting that changes in El Ni\u00f1o may emerge earlier and more strongly in the eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n<p>Natural forces do not explain the shift<\/p>\n<p>The researchers next asked whether natural climate forces could reproduce the increase. They compared the coral reconstruction with simulations from 12 climate models covering the last millennium, including models that incorporated volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity.<\/p>\n<p>The reconstructed increase in eastern Pacific variability exceeded what the models produced from natural forcing or internal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrighterside.news\/post\/microplastics-may-be-weakening-the-oceans-ability-to-fight-climate-change\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">climate variability<\/a>. The difference was statistically unusual at the 95% level and approached 99% significance when compared with unforced pre-industrial control simulations.<\/p>\n<p>The study stops short of a formal attribution analysis, but the timing and magnitude of the changes point toward a connection with anthropogenic warming. The authors also identified an important problem: most climate models did not reproduce an increase as large as the one recorded by the corals.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m concerned that none of the climate models picked up on the increase we observed in the coral record,\u201d Stevenson said. \u201cThat probably means the models are missing something about how El Ni\u00f1o responds to climate change, and we need to know why that&#8217;s happening.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Comparison of coral-reconstructed interannual variability in the Indo-Pacific and global surface air temperature (SAT). (CREDIT: Science) A more dangerous background for future El Ni\u00f1os<\/p>\n<p>That uncertainty makes the developing 2026 event especially important. NOAA reported in August that El Ni\u00f1o was strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.<\/p>\n<p>A stronger El Ni\u00f1o does not guarantee a particular storm, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrighterside.news\/post\/the-sikkim-flood-in-india-can-help-others-prepare-for-similar-disasters\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">drought or flood<\/a>. But the study suggests that the ocean conditions underlying these events are moving beyond the range seen through much of the past millennium.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf this trend continues into the future, \u2018super El Ni\u00f1os,\u2019 like the one developing right now, might become much more common \u2014 with all the impacts that go along with them,\u201d Stevenson said.<\/p>\n<p>For the researchers, those impacts are the larger concern. El Ni\u00f1o already alters rainfall, temperatures and ecosystems across much of the world. If its strongest warm events continue intensifying on top of a warming planet, communities may face larger extremes from a climate pattern that has never been particularly gentle.<\/p>\n<p>Dig deeper into El Ni\u00f1o, climate change and Pacific Ocean extremes<\/p>\n<p>These resources explore how ENSO may respond to continued warming, why eastern Pacific events can intensify and how stronger El Ni\u00f1o conditions could amplify climate effects around the world.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-50663-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Deep ocean warming-induced El Ni\u00f1o changes<\/a>: Researchers found that warming below the ocean surface can strengthen sea surface temperature variability in the eastern Pacific, providing another possible mechanism through which a warming ocean could alter El Ni\u00f1o behavior. (Nature Communications, 2024)<\/p>\n<p>Research findings are available online in the journal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.ady2660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Science<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Related Stories<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o variability in the eastern Pacific has increased by about 36.5% compared with the pre-industrial era, according&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":667581,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[269],"tags":[442,281886,18,36750,173040,440,1954,152415,4799,58542,19,17,281887,32978,172,281888,133,32977,36752,191484,28800,1406],"class_list":["post-667580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-coral-records","tag-eire","tag-el-nino","tag-enso","tag-environment","tag-extreme-weather","tag-galapagos-islands","tag-global-warming","tag-green-good-news","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-julia-cole","tag-pacific-ocean","tag-research","tag-samantha-stevenson","tag-science","tag-science-journal","tag-sea-surface-temperatures","tag-super-el-nino","tag-uc-santa-barbara","tag-university-of-michigan"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/117197930675879460","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=667580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/667580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/667581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=667580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=667580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=667580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}