{"id":675195,"date":"2026-09-06T10:44:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T10:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/675195\/"},"modified":"2026-09-06T10:44:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T10:44:20","slug":"if-a-downturn-is-coming-50-years-of-market-history-says-this-is-the-single-best-response","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/675195\/","title":{"rendered":"If a Downturn Is Coming, 50 Years of Market History Says This Is the Single Best Response"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Winnie the Pooh probably isn&#8217;t the investment guru that first comes to mind when you think about Wall Street. And yet he has offered some pretty sage investing advice: &#8220;Doing nothing often leads to the very best of something.&#8221; The history of investing over the past 50 years very clearly shows that this fictional, honey-loving bear could be on to something. Here&#8217;s why.  <\/p>\n<p>            The S&amp;P 500 goes up and down, and then up again          <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Turning to a real person, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/how-to-invest\/famous-investors\/warren-buffett-investments\/?utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=3f56b746-037d-4dc3-9884-40a7dc5f3eb1\" data-ylk=\"slk:iconic%20investor%20Warren%20Buffett;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;iconic investor Warren Buffett&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">iconic investor Warren Buffett<\/a>, the former CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway<\/strong> (NYSE: BRKA)(NYSE: BRKB), has said that &#8220;Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.&#8221;  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><strong>Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.<\/strong>\u00a0In 2009, a &#8220;Double Down&#8221; signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.\u00a0For the first time in years, that same &#8220;Total Conviction&#8221; signal is flashing for a company 1\/100th the size of Nvidia.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=fd8efb75-8660-44b8-85dd-e7f8d3432406&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fa-sa-dd-total-conviction%3Faid%3D11123%26source%3Disaediica0000074%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-dd-4%26ftm_veh%3Dtop_incontent_pitch_feed_yahoo%26ftm_pit%3D19375&amp;utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=3f56b746-037d-4dc3-9884-40a7dc5f3eb1\" data-ylk=\"slk:Continue%20%C2%BB;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Continue \u00bb&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>Continue \u00bb<\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/lo\/mysterio\/api\/f375998745f5f1a63b3442fa25d6aa587fd820aad54c39b9741c9f9890ae30e3\/lightyear_networkapi\/resizefit_w960%3Bquality_80%3Bformat_webp\/https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs.com%2Fen%2Fmotleyfool.com%2Fcb7b24b3a434d0bf5b6e773d3498e649.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"Statues of a bull and a bear on a seesaw.\" height=\"439\" width=\"960\" class=\"yf-1f8hkhu loader\"\/><\/a> Image source: Getty Images.           <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The issue of temperament is where Buffett and Pooh intersect. That&#8217;s because the <strong>S&amp;P 500 index<\/strong>&#8216;s (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) history shows that Wall Street switches between bull and bear markets in a zigzag fashion, while generally moving higher over time. The chart below shows that simply buying and holding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/stock-market\/indexes\/sp-500\/?utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=3f56b746-037d-4dc3-9884-40a7dc5f3eb1\" data-ylk=\"slk:the%20S%26P%20500%20index;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;the S&amp;P 500 index&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">the S&amp;P 500 index<\/a> would have yielded a positive long-term outcome if you had the temperament to do nothing while it gyrated in the short term.  <\/p>\n<p>    <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indices\/%5ESPX\/chart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" alt=\"^SPX Chart\" height=\"441\" width=\"720\" class=\"yf-1f8hkhu loader\"\/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indices\/^SPX\" data-ylk=\"slk:%5ESPX;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;^SPX&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">^SPX<\/a> data by <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:YCharts;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;YCharts&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">YCharts<\/a>           <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">In fact, Warren Buffett has actually suggested that most investors would be better off just buying the S&amp;P 500 index and&#8230; doing nothing. That&#8217;s not entirely true; Buffett would likely recommend continuing to regularly buy an S&amp;P 500 index ETF, such as <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF<\/strong> (NYSEMKT: SPY) or <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF<\/strong> (NYSEMKT: VOO), regardless of market conditions.  <\/p>\n<p>            Think long term, even when Wall Street is thinking short term          <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Buying every month (or at another regular interval) is known as dollar-cost averaging, which can be a powerful wealth-building tool. But the real key is to avoid market timing, or trying to buy and sell to take advantage of short-term price movements. That is difficult, if not impossible, to do successfully over the long term. Market timing would be one of the &#8220;urges&#8221; that get investors into trouble. And if you have the right temperament, 50 years of Wall Street history says you shouldn&#8217;t do it.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Instead, you should channel your inner Winnie the Pooh and do nothing. Well, nothing other than sticking to the same investment plan you had before the bear market downturn. In the end, buying and holding for the long term has a pretty incredible 50-year track record.  <\/p>\n<p>         Should you buy stock in Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF right now?         <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Before you buy stock in\u00a0Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF, consider this:  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">The Motley Fool\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0analyst team just identified what they believe are the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=eca35730-a9ec-48e5-8d82-b1abe197d921&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-bbn-bn%3Faid%3D8867%26source%3Disaeditxt0001213%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-evergreen%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_yahoo%26ftm_pit%3D19383&amp;utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=3f56b746-037d-4dc3-9884-40a7dc5f3eb1\" data-ylk=\"slk:10%20best%20stocks;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;10 best stocks&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>10 best stocks<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0for investors to buy now\u2026 and\u00a0Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF\u00a0wasn&#8217;t one of them.\u00a0The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">Consider when\u00a0<strong>Netflix<\/strong>\u00a0made this list on December 17, 2004&#8230; if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0<strong>you&#8217;d have $421,997<\/strong>!*\u00a0Or\u00a0when\u00a0<strong>Nvidia<\/strong>\u00a0made this list on April 15, 2005&#8230; if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0<strong>you&#8217;d have $1,413,876<\/strong>!*  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">That performance is why people listen. With a track record of\u00a0<strong>beating the S&amp;P 500 by nearly 5x<\/strong>,\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0offers a distinct advantage. Don&#8217;t miss the latest top 10 list, available with\u00a0Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/api.fool.com\/infotron\/infotrack\/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&amp;impression=eca35730-a9ec-48e5-8d82-b1abe197d921&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-bbn-bn%3Faid%3D8867%26source%3Disaeditxt0001213%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-evergreen%26ftm_pit%3D19383%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_yahoo%26company%3DVanguard%2520S%2526P%2520500%2520ETF&amp;utm_source=yahoo-host-full&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=article&amp;referring_guid=3f56b746-037d-4dc3-9884-40a7dc5f3eb1\" data-ylk=\"slk:See%20the%2010%20stocks%20%C2%BB;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;See the 10 stocks \u00bb&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" class=\"ticker_pitch\"><strong>See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\">*Stock Advisor returns as of September 5, 2026.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/author\/2110\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:Reuben%20Gregg%20Brewer;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Reuben Gregg Brewer&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Reuben Gregg Brewer<\/a> has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway and Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/legal\/fool-disclosure-policy\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:disclosure%20policy;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;disclosure policy&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">disclosure policy<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg  yf-18d6y07\" style=\"text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/09\/05\/if-a-downturn-is-coming-50-years-of-market-history\/\" data-ylk=\"slk:If%20a%20Downturn%20Is%20Coming%2C%2050%20Years%20of%20Market%20History%20Says%20This%20Is%20the%20Single%20Best%20Response;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;source:content-canvas%20default\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;If a Downturn Is Coming, 50 Years of Market History Says This Is the Single Best Response&quot;,&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yTrafficOrigin&quot;:&quot;content-canvas default&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">If a Downturn Is Coming, 50 Years of Market History Says This Is the Single Best Response<\/a> was originally published by The Motley Fool  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Winnie the Pooh probably isn&#8217;t the investment guru that first comes to mind when you think about Wall&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":675196,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[174],"tags":[280947,285522,13307,156563,79,179,18,35042,19,17,11674,3447,24147,19043,285521],"class_list":["post-675195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-50-years","tag-50-year","tag-13307","tag-buffett","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-etf","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-motley","tag-motley-fool","tag-stock-advisor","tag-vanguard","tag-winnie"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/117223690356971958","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/675195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=675195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/675195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/675196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=675195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=675195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=675195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}