{"id":68340,"date":"2025-09-16T21:18:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T21:18:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/68340\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T21:18:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T21:18:10","slug":"the-outlook-for-hot-us-temps-pushes-nat-gas-prices-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/68340\/","title":{"rendered":"The Outlook for Hot US Temps Pushes Nat-Gas Prices Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"

October Nymex natural gas (NGV25<\/a>) on Tuesday closed up +0.067 (+1.97%).<\/p>\n

Oct nat-gas prices recovered from a 2-week low on Tuesday and rallied sharply on forecasts for late summer heat in the US that will boost nat-gas demand and limit the buildup of inventories ahead of the critical winter heating season. \u00a0Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Tuesday that much hotter-than-normal temperatures are forecast across most of North America for September 21-25, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air conditioning usage. \u00a0Also, forecasts shifted warmer over the eastern two-thirds of the US for September 26-30. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.<\/a> <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Higher US nat-gas production has recently been a bearish factor for prices. \u00a0Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf\/day from August’s estimate of 106.40 bcf\/day. \u00a0US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.<\/p>\n

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 106.0 bcf\/day (+4.8% y\/y), according to BNEF. \u00a0Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 73.6 bcf\/day (+1.0% y\/y), according to BNEF. \u00a0Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 15.2 \u00a0bcf\/day (+4.0% w\/w), according to BNEF.<\/p>\n

As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended September 6 rose +1.03% y\/y to 83,003 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending September 6 rose +2.97% y\/y to 4,264,559 GWh.<\/p>\n

Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended September 5 rose +71 bcf, above the market consensus of +68 bcf and above the 5-year weekly average of +56 bcf. \u00a0As of September 5, nat-gas inventories were down -1.3% y\/y, but were +6.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. \u00a0As of September 14, gas storage in Europe was 81% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 87% full for this time of year.<\/p>\n

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending September 12 was unchanged at 118 rigs, slightly below the 2-year high of 124 rigs posted on August 1. \u00a0In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"October Nymex natural gas (NGV25) on Tuesday closed up +0.067 (+1.97%). Oct nat-gas prices recovered from a 2-week…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68341,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[79,18,19,17,188],"class_list":{"0":"post-68340","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland","12":"tag-markets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}