Job seekers attend a job fair in Calgary. (Credit: Jim Wells\/Postmedia) <\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s labour market<\/a> is not on the side of employment hunters based on the latest numbers on job vacancies<\/a>.<\/p>\n Job vacancies continue to decline, according to Statistics Canada\u2019s data released on Tuesday, and there are indications of a building slowdown across the labour market.<\/p>\n The unemployment rate<\/a> hit 7.1 per cent in August, up from 6.9 per cent in July, and economists said it would have been higher had it not been for a drop in the number of people looking for work.<\/p>\n The economy has shed a net 40,000 jobs since the beginning of March, which is the steepest downturn since August 2020, after losses piled up in July and August.<\/p>\n Economists say that has made it impossible for the Bank of Canada<\/a> to ignore the state of the job market<\/a> and the economy more broadly.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite slightly-above-target \u2018underlying\u2019 inflation<\/a>, accumulating weakness in the labour market and the presumed downward pressure that will put on inflation is the more important factor right now, even if the Bank (of Canada) can\u2019t be as forward-looking as it would like,\u201d Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, economists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note. \u201cAt this point, we also have an October cut pencilled in and this data doesn\u2019t jeopardize that call.\u201d<\/p>\n Job vacancies fell for the 12th straight quarter and the vacancy rate has been on a non-stop decline since peaking in the second quarter of 2022, after the economy reopened from the pandemic.<\/p>\n Unlike those heady days when the employment market was flooded with opportunities, job openings fell 12.6 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier and landed at their lowest level since the first quarter of 2018, Statistics Canada said.<\/p>\n The numbers echo what employers have been telling the Bank of Canada: they are reluctant to hire.<\/p>\n \u201cFewer firms than usual plan to increase their labour force over the next year,\u201d the Bank of Canada\u2019s Business Outlook Survey, released on July 30, said. \u201cThe shares of firms that are hiring to meet expected sales increases, filling vacant positions or holding on to excess labour are all below average.\u201d<\/p>\n The Statistics Canada report \u201cconfirms what was shown in earlier releases of the monthly Labour Force Survey and Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours: Canada\u2019s labour market loosened in Q2, and it became more challenging for unemployed Canadians or those seeking new employment to find a job,\u201d Michael Davenport, senior economist at Oxford Economics Ltd., said in an email.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n More people are vying for jobs<\/a> that are open, as the unemployed-to-job-vacancy ratio rose year over year in the second quarter, Statistics Canada said.<\/p>\n \u201cEmployer job creation has underperformed compared to what we\u2019ve seen in terms of the increase in general population in Canada, so those who arrive in the labour market are unable to find work,\u201d Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, said.<\/p>\n The ratio of those who are jobless per available position was highest amongst people with a bachelor\u2019s degree or higher.<\/p>\n St-Arnaud said that fits with the mounting difficulties of recent post-secondary graduates in Canada, who have been reporting that they are having trouble landing their first job out of school.<\/p>\n The jobless rate for those aged 20 to 24 hit 12.1 per cent August, up from 11.6 per cent the year before.<\/p>\n \u201cIt goes with all that we\u2019re seeing right now with the economy, which is that the increase or the high uncertainty is not conducive to any hiring,\u201d St-Arnaud said. \u201cAnd, as usual, unfortunately for the younger cohorts, they\u2019re always the last ones in and the first ones out. It\u2019s kind of a perfect storm for them.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The drop in job vacancies was broad-based and St-Arnaud said that ties in with the reality that there is less demand for workers than prior to the pandemic as Canada\u2019s economy continues to slack off, or not produce to its full potential.<\/p>\n St-Arnaud said the drop in job openings in transportation and warehousing has been one of those areas \u201cthat\u2019s been relatively important in the last year,\u201d given the pressure that United States tariffs have placed on the manufacturing and related sectors.<\/p>\n On a year-over-year basis, the number of vacant positions in the second quarter in the trades, transport and equipment operations, and related occupations was down by 13.9 per cent, with the largest declines in vacancies within this group recorded in construction trade helpers and labourers and transport truck drivers.<\/p>\n A couple of measures in the job vacancy release underlined that it is not a job seeker\u2019s market anymore.<\/p>\n For example, average offered hourly wages grew by 4.1 per cent year over year in the second quarter, down from a 4.7 per cent increase in the first quarter.<\/p>\n \u201cWith more available workers per job, vacancies, as shown by the unemployment-rate-to-vacancy rate, it means that there\u2019s less need to attract more broadly,\u201d St-Arnaud said, adding that the vacancy wage data lines up with the ongoing slowdown in wage growth in the Labour Force Survey.<\/p>\n The job vacancy report also said the share of long-term vacancies \u2014 positions that have remained unfilled for 90 days or more \u2014 is decreasing.<\/p>\n For the second quarter, the long-term vacancy rate fell to 27.5 per cent from\u00a030.1 per cent in the first quarter.<\/p>\n \u201cLong-term vacancies are a key indicator of labour market conditions,\u201d Statistics Canada said, adding that a rising rate can indicate tightness in the labour market and challenges finding the appropriate person.<\/p>\n A falling rate, however, \u201csuggests firms are filling vacant positions more quickly, meaning the job market is more challenging for the unemployed and those looking to switch jobs.\u201d Davenport at Oxford said, adding that the second quarter slowdown was also likely due to tariff uncertainty weighing on business hiring plans.<\/p>\n So where is the jobs market headed?<\/p>\n St-Arnaud said the job vacancy numbers combined with the recent Labour Force Survey mean job creation will continue to be weak for the next few months. He expects the unemployment rate could rise to \u201cjust shy\u201d of 7.5 per cent from its current level of 7.1 per cent.<\/p>\n Davenport at Oxford said the prospects for jobs and the economy will improve, especially given Canada ended retaliatory tariffs against U.S. imports and the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement compliance rate for exports to the U.S. continues to rise.<\/p>\n In the short term, he is calling for the jobless rate to rise.<\/p>\n \u201cBut we still expect modest job losses in Q4 to lift the unemployment rate to 7.4 per cent as the economy continues to teeter on the verge of recession,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0Sign up here<\/a> to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/p>\n Canada\u2019s inflation rate<\/a> accelerated to 1.9 per cent in August, but a slight easing in core inflation could cement the case for a Bank of Canada<\/a>interest rate cut<\/a> on Wednesday.Headline inflation rose from 1.7 per cent in July in part because gasoline prices fell more slowly in August, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday. Taking out energy and food, the consumer price index<\/a> rose by 2.4 per cent in August, down from 2.5 per cent the month before. \u2014 Jordan Gowling, Financial Post<\/p>\n Read the full story here.<\/a><\/p>\n Bank of Canada and the United States Federal Reserve make interest rate announcements.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Today\u2019s data: I<\/strong>nternational securities transactions for Canada. U.S. housing starts and buiding permits for August.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Today\u2019s earnings: <\/strong>Sangoma Technologies Corp., General Mills Inc., Whitefiber Inc.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n Rosemary turned 71 this summer and knows she has to convert her registered retirement savings plans<\/a> (RRSPs) into registered retirement income funds<\/a> (RRIFs), but isn\u2019t sure how to do so and what the tax impact will be. Read more here.<\/a><\/p>\n Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com<\/a> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/p>\n Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column <\/a>can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus, check out his mortgage rate page<\/a> for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.<\/p>\n Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel<\/a> for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic<\/a> with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/p>\n Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com<\/a>\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Job seekers attend a job fair in Calgary. (Credit: Jim Wells\/Postmedia) \u00a0 Canada\u2019s labour market is not on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":70028,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[24653,79,995,18,233,19,17,20472,227,2992,48503,4475,4125,48504],"class_list":{"0":"post-70027","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-bank-of-canada","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-eire","12":"tag-employment","13":"tag-ie","14":"tag-ireland","15":"tag-job-fair","16":"tag-jobs","17":"tag-labour-market","18":"tag-national-bank-of-canada","19":"tag-statistics-canada","20":"tag-unemployment-rate","21":"tag-vacancy-rate"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/a>
<\/p>\n
<\/a> <\/p>\n
\n
<\/a>
<\/a>
<\/a> <\/p>\n