\u201cOverall, property values remain sluggish for now, but conditions may be turning towards some growth in 2026, albeit likely muted.\u201d<\/p>\n
Suburbs where prices rose were more \u201caffordable areas\u201d, Cotality\u2019s data showed. The strongest gains, of more than 5%, were seen in parts of the Grey District, Buller and south Taranaki.<\/p>\n
Declines of nearly 4% were seen in the Auckland suburbs of Takapuna and Clevedon.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile it\u2019s difficult to generalise across the various trends at a suburb level, there is certainly some resilience among standalone houses and townhouses in lower-priced areas, which will tend to have affordability on their side,\u201d Davidson said.<\/p>\n
Davidson said the trend of slowly rising sales activity with stagnant property values was shaped by ongoing economic and labour market weaknesses.<\/p>\n
He said a strong lift in prices in the near term was hard to see. However, he said there were some signs conditions were shifting.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith affordability returning back closer to normal levels, listing volumes starting to decline, mortgage-rate falls increasingly passing through to existing borrowers as they reprice on to lower rates, and the unemployment rate set to fall a bit next year, conditions seem to be building for modest house price growth in 2026 \u2013 but don\u2019t expect a boom,” Davidson said.<\/p>\n
Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen agreed with Davidson. He told the Herald the talk is about modest growth. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere likely is a little bit of growth to come through,\u201d Olsen said. \u201cThere hasn\u2019t been much of a reaction to interest rate cuts and with slow population growth coupled with high levels of housing stock available.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut with further interest rates scheduled between now and the end of the year, it lays the groundwork for some slightly stronger growth coming next year, but we certainly wouldn\u2019t overblow it.\u201d<\/p>\n
ANZ senior economist Matthew Galt told the Herald the bank was forecasting a \u201cgradual pick-up\u201d in house prices next year.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re forecasting house prices to end 2025 the same way they ended 2024, so no growth, and then a gradual pick-up as interest rates start supporting the market,\u201d Galt said. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe don\u2019t expect house prices to race away \u2013 for much the same reasons they\u2019ve been flat this year; the Reserve Bank has only just cut [the Official Cash Rate] back to neutral from high levels, and another factor is that rates and insurance costs have been going up while rent has been going down.\u201d<\/p>\n
Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers business, breaking news and local stories from T\u0101maki Makaurau. He joined the <\/b>Herald <\/b>as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.<\/b><\/p>\n