{"id":95447,"date":"2025-09-30T20:40:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T20:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/95447\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T20:40:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T20:40:08","slug":"aei-housing-market-indicators-september-2025-american-enterprise-institute","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/95447\/","title":{"rendered":"AEI Housing Market Indicators, September 2025 | American Enterprise Institute"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/HMI-Briefing-Presentation-9.30.25-FINAL-v3.pdf?x85095\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Slides<\/a>\u00b7 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Housing-Risk-NMRI-methodology-March-2018-FINAL.pdf?x85095\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Methodology<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Housing Center released its monthly update to the AEI Housing Market Indicators on September 30, 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Video Recording<\/p>\n<p><video controls=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/HMI-Briefing-Presentation-9.30.25.mp4\"\/><\/p>\n<p>&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;span data-mce-type=\u201dbookmark\u201d style=\u201ddisplay: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\u201d class=\u201dmce_SELRES_start\u201d&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;\ufeff&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;\/span&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;<\/p>\n<p>Key Takeaways<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Recent movements in rates and demand.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The median purchase rate remained at 6.125% in week 39, 2025.<\/li>\n<li>In August 2025, preliminary constant-quality home prices were up 1.6% from a year ago. Based on our projection using ICE data, YoY HPA will be around 1.0% and 0.5% in September and October 2025, respectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Home price appreciation (HPA) and month\u2019s supply trends through August 2025.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>August 2025\u2019s preliminary YoY HPA was 1.6%, the lowest August level of the series.<\/li>\n<li>50 of 57 top metros by home sales experienced a seller\u2019s market (months\u2019 supply\n<\/li>\n<li>YoY HPA spread for Aug. 2025 among 60 largest metros remains wide, with a clear demarcation between North &amp; South.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Classic FICO vs VantageScore debate: what do the numbers say?<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Our analysis found that much of the reported advantage comes from methodological inconsistencies and selection bias. Once corrected, the purported performance advantage of VS4 largely disappears.<\/li>\n<li>The real risk for the housing finance system isn\u2019t Classic FICO\u2014 it\u2019s the premature and fraught adoption of a two-score system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Our assessment of the bipartisan ROAD Act.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Beneath its bipartisan veneer, the ROAD Act runs counter to Republican priorities of local control, market-based solutions, and fiscal discipline.<\/li>\n<li>Republicans should instead pursue a two-tiered strategy rooted in markets and local control: issue an executive order selling 0.05% of public land.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Family In My Back Yard (FIMBY) starter homes are\u00a0essential for family formation.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The American Dream is at risk for working families: We have not built enough housing, especially family homes, to keep pace with demand.<\/li>\n<li>FIMBY could solve the U.S. supply shortage with single-family solutions alone: simply allowing denser single-family 1-4 infill housing and smaller lots in new residential subdivisions would add 900,000 homes per year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>A comparison of various metrics to predict loan originations.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>In recent years, the MBA purchase app data have diverged from other data sources.<\/li>\n<li>So far, MBS data have followed rate lock data, and time will tell which one is the better leading indicator.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Housing market volatility: how many metros are seeing price declines?<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Adjusted for inflation, 41 (72%) of the 57 largest metros in the U.S. saw real YoY price decreases in August, including every major metro in the three largest states: California, Texas, and Florida.<\/li>\n<li>This trend is especially evident in the South and West, where 33 (85%) of the 39 major metros had HPAs below the national average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>When will today\u2019s outstanding ARMs reset? Answer: not for a while.<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>According to ICE data, ARMs make up ~3.9% (570K) of 14.6M purchase loans since 2019.<\/li>\n<li>Just 22,000 of these loans reset in 2025, rising to 40,000+ annually from 2026 through 2032.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If you would like to receive invitations to our monthly update calls, please\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/hello.aei.org\/Pinto-Emails-Subscription.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">subscribe here<\/a>. For data on mortgage risk, please use our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/housing\/mortgage-risk-index\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Mortgage Risk Index Interactive<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Slides\u00b7 Methodology The American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Housing Center released its monthly update to the AEI Housing Market Indicators&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":95448,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[79,18,19,17,188],"class_list":{"0":"post-95447","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland","12":"tag-markets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95447\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}