Thu, May 7, 2026 at 4:38 PM UTC
A recent confidential intelligence analysis concluded Iran can outlast the Trump administration’s ongoing naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by several months before facing more severe economic consequences, four people familiar with the assessment told The Washington Post on Thursday.
The CIA analysis was reportedly delivered to policymakers this week, as the administration tries to convince the public the war has been an overwhelming victory for the U.S., and that the blockade on the major shipping channel has significantly hurt Iran.
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The president claimed on Wednesday that the U.S. and Israel have “mostly decimated” Iran’s missiles. But according to the Post, the CIA analysis concluded Tehran retains about 75% of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70% of prewar missile stockpiles – even assembling new missiles that were almost done when the U.S. and Israel launched the war.
An intelligence official would not confirm the CIA conclusion to the paper, only stressing the U.S. blockade is “inflicting real, compounding damage” on Iran.
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