Cargo numbers remained strong at the Port of Los Angeles in April, Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Monday, May 11, but even as the Iran-U.S. war continues, with the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the world’s oil production flows, is still effectively closed.
Seroka, speaking during his monthly virtual news briefing, said the crucial waterway is “seeing just a trickle of normal activity.”
What is needed, he said, is a “sustained and proven peace agreement, something that holds over time.”
While cargo doesn’t directly come through that strait to the Port of L.A., the impacts are global — with much of the world’s oil supply relying on the waterway.
President Donald Trump, as reported by the Associated Press on Monday, said that the current cease fire in the region is on “life support” following the administration’s rejection of the latest responses to U.S. proposals by Iran.
Even with a sustained peace agreement in place, Seroka said, reopening the strait will require a gradual process before there is a return to normal traffic.
Tariffs also remain on the table and continue to shift, the port leader said, further affecting global trade.
Seroka’s guest on Monday was former Ambassador Katherine Tai, who served as U.S. Trade Representative during the Biden administration.
“There will be tariffs for the foreseeable global future,” she said, “but at which countries at which rates?”
More clarity is needed in U.S. trade policy, Seroka said.
“Just tell me the ground rules,” he said. “The folks — not just in the executive suites but who we work with every day — tell me their planning horizon is so narrow because they don’t know what to expect now, what shoe is going to drop.”
Still, Seroka said of the Port of L.A., “elevated (cargo) numbers remain steady so far this year; we’re looking pretty good.”
Consumers, he said, are continuing to spend.
Higher gas prices — which, Seroka said, is impacting truckers at the port and are also expected to affect summer vacation travel plans — are a concern, having surpassed $6 a gallon in Southern California. There are efforts on the part of big oil companies, he said, to find alternative supplies to the 30% of oil that has relied on traveling through the war-impacted strait. The port also supplies airline fuel to Los Angeles International Airport.
But cargo traffic should be fine in the immediate future.
“I don’t think we’re really going to go into an abyss,” Seroka said. “Cargo looks good; we’re not seeing cancellations.”
The summer months should see the usual fall and holiday seasonal items flow in, he said.
But overall, import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s level into early fall, “despite a skewed year-over-year bump in May and June,” National Retail Federation said last week.
That analysis came rom the federations’ Global Port Tracker report, which the NRF and Hacket Associates released on Friday, May 8.
“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a written statement accompanying the numbers. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”
Amid what is an ongoing economic uncertainty, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, said retailers also have been cautious about building up inventories.
“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said in a written comment. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”
The Port of Los Angeles, meanwhile, processed 890,861 twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in April. That was 5.7% above the same month last year and marked the second-best April on record, port officials said, with strong import demand continuing despite the uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy.
Through the first four months of 2026, the port has handled 3,279,704 TEUs, 2% ahead of its five-year average for the period and 2% below last year’s pace, which was driven by significant front-loading of cargo.
“April was our strongest month this year and the highest cargo volume we’ve seen since last August, a clear sign that the American consumer remains resilient,” Seroka said at the media briefing. “Retailers and manufacturers are continuing to move goods despite uncertainty, and based on what we’re seeing in Asia, the next wave of imports — from back-to-school to early holiday merchandise — is already beginning to build.”
Tai, who recently founded the Coalition for New Trade, said changes are likely ahead — and needed — when it comes to global trade.
“The world economy, geopolitics and trade are different today than they were 10 years ago,” she said. “And they will continue to change; we’re in the middle of a huge inflection point.”
Tai served as the 19th United States trade representative and was a member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet as the principal trade advisor and negotiator. She also served as spokesperson on U.S. trade policy from March 2021 to January 2025.
Both Seroka and Tai also spoke about the importance of this week’s anticipated meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping.
The meeting will be closely watched for “how the two largest economies in the world deal with each other,” Tai said.
“Everybody has presumed that prosperity will lead to peace,” she said. “I think it’s fair to say that the world is less peaceful.”
The fate of the Strait of Hormuz, however, remains the focus for the world’s shipping industry, Seroka said.
“It’s going to take confidence and we’re just not there yet,” he said of the ongoing stalemate. “We’re seeing just a trickle of the normal activity,” which is some 110 ships moving through a day. “There’s less than a handful moving through now.”
There are now about 20,000 seafarers still on vessels inside the Arabian Gulf, waiting for what comes next, Seroka added.
“Companies are going to remain cautious,” Seroka said of an eventual reboot of normal ship traffic.