The military confrontation between the UAE and Iran is shaping a new reality in the Middle East. The more the UAE deepens its rapprochement with Israel and the United States, the more problems Iran creates for it. And the more actively Tehran acts in this direction, the more resolutely Abu Dhabi moves closer to the enemies of the Islamic Republic.

The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, reports that the United Arab Emirates carried out strikes against the Islamic Republic, which has made it an active party to the war. At the same time, the UAE has not publicly confirmed these attacks. It is also noted that the Emirati leadership now views Tehran as a direct threat to its economic model.

By shelling Emirati ports and cities, as well as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is not only undermining the UAE’s oil revenues but also calling into question its entire economic model based on the transition to a post-oil economy of high technology, modern manufacturing, tourism, and the financial sector. Such a model presupposes long-term cooperation with global investors, who can no longer regard the UAE as a stable haven for their capital.

According to available information, the UAE has responded to Iranian shelling. Its armed forces are equipped with Western-made fighter jets and modern intelligence capabilities. These attacks indicate that the country is increasingly using its military forces to defend its economic strength and political interests.

Rumours about the UAE’s involvement in the war have been circulating since mid-March, when a fighter jet was observed over Iran which, apparently, did not belong to either Israel or the United States.

Researchers tracking open-source imagery and other data point to photographs allegedly showing French Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter jets and Chinese CAIG Wing Loong drones — both of which are operated by the UAE.

The strikes, which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, reportedly included an attack on an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf. The strike took place in early April, around the time when President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire following his five-week air campaign. It caused a major fire and disabled a significant portion of the refinery’s capacity for several months. The United States did not express disapproval of the bombing, as the truce had not yet come into effect, and supported the UAE’s involvement in the confrontation with Iran.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment on the strikes, but referred to previous statements emphasising the country’s right to respond to hostile actions by Tehran, including by military means.

Exchange of strikes and its consequences

When the United States and Israel began carrying out strikes on Iran on February 28 and eliminated a significant part of the country’s top military and political leadership, Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on cities in Gulf states. In addition, it targeted their energy infrastructure and airports. These countries cooperated with American forces, while Iran pursued a strategy of horizontal escalation, seeking to increase the economic and political costs for the United States.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, capable of triggering a global economic recession, has become Tehran’s main instrument. At the same time, by disabling infrastructure, refineries, and ports of the Gulf oil monarchies, Iran has amplified the effect of an oil shock. Tehran expected these countries to exert pressure on the Trump administration and force it to halt the bombing campaign against Iran. However, in the case of the UAE, this calculation did not work.

“It’s significant to have a Gulf Arab country as a warring party that struck Iran directly…Tehran will now aim to further drive a wedge between the U.A.E. and other Gulf Arabs who are trying to mediate an end to the war,” notes Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East analyst and author of a book on the UAE’s economic development.

At the same time, Iran has focused a significant portion of its attacks specifically on the UAE, carrying out more than 2,800 missile and drone strikes against it — far more than against any other country, including Israel. This is seen as a response to the UAE’s rapprochement with Israel under the Abraham Accords, as well as the expansion of Emirati-Israeli military cooperation.

Iranian strikes have inflicted a serious blow to the UAE’s air transport, tourism, and real estate sectors, and have led to a wave of layoffs. They have also triggered a fundamental shift in the country’s strategic thinking: Iran is now viewed by the Emirati leadership as a rogue state seeking to undermine its economic and social model, which is based on attracting foreign specialists and capital to build an efficient post-oil economy. Tehran is damaging the UAE’s reputation as a country capable of ensuring investor safety and stability.

As a result, the UAE has become the most confrontational Gulf state toward Iran and, throughout the war, has maintained close military cooperation with Israel and the United States.

“The Emiratis made it clear early on that they didn’t want this war. But it’s also clear that since the first Iranian strikes on the U.A.E. took place, Abu Dhabi’s been quite transparent that they see the regional picture as having changed dramatically…Abu Dhabi hasn’t confirmed what they have targeted, or even if they have targeted, but from the early days of the war it seemed only a matter of time before we saw increased kinetic involvement of different Gulf states in the war,” notes H.A. Hellyer, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London.

Of course, in military terms, the UAE is significantly inferior to the United States. However, it possesses highly trained and combat-ready air forces equipped with Mirage 2000 fighters and General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft.

According to retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Dave Deptula, the UAE is capable of creating serious problems for Iran: “They are very strong in terms of precision strike, air defense, airborne surveillance, refueling and logistics…If you have that capable of an air force, why would you sit back and absorb attacks from Iran without responding?”

Tehran’s strategy of drawing Gulf states into the war has deepened political divisions among the Arab monarchies and forced them to seek new security tools.

While all Gulf states face growing threats, the UAE is strengthening its relations with the United States, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, told a group of journalists in April.

The UAE also supported a draft UN resolution allowing the use of force if necessary to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, has repeatedly accused the UAE of joining the U.S. and Israeli campaign.

The UAE has also taken decisive actions against Iran’s financial interests, including closing clubs in Dubai linked to Tehran, denying visas and transit rights to Iranian citizens. In addition, it has frozen the accounts of Iranian oligarchs who had invested billions of dollars in the UAE economy and halted fuel supplies refined from Iranian oil. These measures have inflicted significant economic damage on Tehran. However, the Iranian leadership likely concluded that its strategy of horizontal escalation against the UAE brings more benefits than costs.

After the United States and Israel destroyed much of Iran’s air defence system, the risk to combat aircraft operating over the country has significantly decreased, said retired U.S. Air Force Colonel John Venable.

“If you’re an ally and you want to be engaged, it’s a really good time to do that, because the threat is really low,” Venable said. “At medium to high altitude, aircraft are going to be able to do what they want, and there’s nothing the Iranians can do about it.”

Another confirmation of unprecedented UAE–Israeli cooperation has been the deployment of the Iron Dome system on Emirati territory, which helps intercept Iranian missiles and drones.

The more the UAE deepens its rapprochement with Israel and the United States, the more problems Iran creates for it. And the more actively Tehran pursues this approach, the more significantly Abu Dhabi aligns itself with its opponents. The country’s recent withdrawal from OPEC partly reflects this dynamic. The UAE is disappointed by the inability of Arab states and international organisations to prevent Iranian attacks. It is now seeking alternative mechanisms to contain Tehran. However, this still does not resolve the core problem.

The key question

Iran has become convinced that it possesses powerful geopolitical and geo-economic tools, and has demonstrated its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz through missile and drone attacks that so far cannot be fully stopped by anyone. It has effectively removed 10–15 per cent of the global oil supply from the world economy, pushing it toward recession and exposing the U.S. president and the Republican Party to potential political losses in future elections due to a sharp rise in oil prices.

Iran’s strategy of horizontal escalation against the Gulf states has brought the Islamic Republic certain advantages, further destabilising the global economy. Iran has demonstrated its ability to strike oil ports in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which so far still allow these countries to partially offset the effects of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In this way, Tehran is attempting to force the United States and other adversaries to stop bombing its territory, lift sanctions, and even recognise its right to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The main problem for the Gulf oil monarchies is that their plans to build post-oil economies based on hundreds of billions of dollars in investment and advanced technologies are now under threat. As long as the Iranian regime exists in its current form, they will either have to abandon part of these ambitious projects or significantly scale them back.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and Iran is not backing down. Each time the United States attempts to reopen the strait, Tehran resumes strikes on the UAE. It is unclear how long this can continue. And what if it lasts for years? It is far from certain that the UAE or Saudi Arabia are capable of doing more than launching a few airstrikes against Iran — actions that would not fundamentally change the situation.