The National Interest says U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf now risk escalation as America faces debt pressure and the failure of attrition strategy.
The National Interest writes that the U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf no longer has its former purpose. According to the outlet, U.S. forces in the region no longer serve as the stabilizing factor that Washington used for years to justify its presence. Instead, they are increasingly becoming a source of risk for a new escalation in an area long exhausted by instability.
As TNI notes, the deployment of American bases effectively turns regional states into potential participants in any conflict in which the United States decides to intervene. At the same time, reliance on American protection has prevented the Persian Gulf countries from building their own regional security system.
The American approach was based on superiority in conventional armed forces. Washington expected that prolonged military pressure and strikes on critical facilities would eventually force Iran to capitulate. However, Tehran withstood this pressure, preserved its ability to strike regional targets and control maritime routes. According to the outlet, this shows the failure of the American strategy of attrition.
TNI stresses that the United States should have understood in advance that this line was doomed. Such a strategy failed in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and now, the outlet believes, it is likely to fail against Iran as well.
The authors also remind American military officials of the idea from Leo Tolstoy’s novel War and Peace that the strongest warriors are patience and time. According to TNI, Iran’s strategy of resistance is built on these same principles.
In this situation, Iran only needs to wait until Donald Trump faces the midterm elections, declining public support and the rising cost of draining U.S. military stockpiles.
America’s global military strategy is already running into financial limits. In addition to the $29 billion spent on the war with Iran, Washington has to maintain overseas bases, aircraft carrier groups and missile defense systems. All of this requires enormous spending at a time when U.S. national debt has already exceeded annual GDP, while yearly payments on that debt have become larger than the entire defense budget.
This situation, as The National Interest notes, fits the so-called Ferguson limit — a theory by the British historian that an empire begins to collapse when it spends more on servicing its debts than on its own military. According to the outlet, the United States reached this threshold in 2024.
Under these conditions, one solution is to reduce the American military presence abroad, including in the Persian Gulf. The National Interest concludes that the region can no longer remain a zone of permanent U.S. presence because America is no longer able to sustain such a burden.