Jun 3, 2026
Dozens of vessels have navigated the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, but industry experts caution that such crossings remain highly dangerous and do not replace the need for a fully open waterway. According to The National, reports indicate that between 30 and 70 ships have traversed the strait since early May, some with US military assistance including helicopter escorts, facing threats from Iranian sea mines, missiles, and fast attack boats. Analysts emphasize that these transits are exceptions and do not signal a return to normal maritime traffic.
Junaid Ansari, director and head of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, commented that ship movements through the strait are extremely limited, and for regular traffic to resume, agreement between the US and Iran is necessary. He noted that until a peace deal is reached, such transits remain isolated cases. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows that 29 of the 109 larger vessels—those capable of carrying 700,000 barrels or more—that were stranded after the strait was effectively closed on February 28 have now crossed the chokepoint. Ship-tracking data indicates that at least a quarter of non-Iranian ships trapped since the conflict began have exited the strait.
However, Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight-pricing platform Xeneta, stated that around 100 container ships remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf. German shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd reported that four of its vessels are still stranded, with one having been in transit for four weeks. A company representative indicated that passing with US help could be an option if vessels can be protected from attacks and if the route is mine-free and safe.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expects a deal with Iran to be completed within the coming week to reopen the strait, following an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah to cease hostilities in Lebanon. Chris Newton, senior analyst at Crisis Group, remarked that there is no military solution to the strait or the wider war, and that Hormuz is likely to reopen through negotiations as part of an overall war deal.
Kepler, a data and analytics company providing real-time tracking for global commodity and maritime markets, noted that US support for vessel transit is not scalable like normal open navigation but can assist in moving stranded or high-priority ships. Ana Subasic, trade-risk analyst at Kpler, explained that the quieter approach appears more effective than a public force-open plan because it lowers the political and military threshold. She said the US appears to be helping selected vessels move through with coordination, intelligence, route guidance, and security support, avoiding public confrontation with Iran. However, she described the guided transit model as a triage system, not a fully functioning trade corridor, and stressed that for Hormuz to be genuinely reopened, ships need predictable security, insurance cover, crew confidence, and a reasonable expectation of not being attacked, boarded, mined, or detained.
Kpler data shows approximately 412 ships still trapped or waiting in the Arabian Gulf. It observed about 55 crossings between May 22 and 28, four more on May 29, and five each on May 30 and 31. Subasic characterized this as a controlled, partial flow rather than a return to normal transit conditions. Chris Newton added that verifying US claims is difficult because most reported transits occurred without broadcasting their location, and determining what happened will take time as vessels are located later in their voyages. He noted that the number of US-coordinated transits is low for daily crossings, showing incremental progress but not a breakthrough.
Kpler warned that risks remain significant as ships are guided through the channel, with potential threats including drones, missiles, mines, fast-attack boats, attempted boardings, disruption to GPS or the automatic identification system (AIS), misidentification, or escalation between military forces. Subasic noted that sailing with AIS off may reduce targeting risk but complicates transparency, collision avoidance, and independent tracking.
Amid Iran’s latest threats to tighten control over the Strait of Hormuz, the MSC Sariska V was attacked off the coast of Iraq on Tuesday, leaving a large hole in its hull. MSC described Iran’s actions as completely unjustified. Newton commented that Iran’s claimed control of the strait remains, and it will not give up its leverage in negotiations with the US for nothing. He added that Iran is still capable of threatening commercial ships, and it is unclear how much direct protection the US is offering ships using the southern corridor from Iranian fast attack craft, missiles, drones, and mines, with each transit carrying a risk of attack.
Ships crossing the strait with a US naval convoy would still need costly insurance cover, with war risk premiums soaring 4,000 times higher than before the crisis, according to maritime risk analysis and insurance market reports. Any ship attempting to pass can take out insurance cover currently offered at 4 percent of the ship’s value for a seven-day policy, compared to as low as 0.001 percent before the crisis. Captain Chris O’Flaherty, a naval mining expert, described the increase as astronomically higher, noting that normal steaming around the world’s oceans carries a war risk premium of 0.001 percent of the ship’s value. He explained that insurers impose appropriate premiums when notified of a planned transit.
According to Ansari of Kamco Invest, shipping fees should remain elevated compared to prewar levels and should subside only after a backlog of two to three months following the full reopening of the route. Sand of Xeneta added that short-term container shipping freight rates have jumped globally due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Compared to pre-conflict levels, average spot rates in June are expected to be 75 percent higher from China to the US East Coast, 51 percent higher to North Europe, 45 percent to the Mediterranean, and 57 percent on the transatlantic route from North Europe to the US East Coast.