Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise amid the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. On March 11, reports emerged of new attacks on civilian vessels in the Persian Gulf, while Iran’s military command warned of a possible sharp surge in global oil prices.

According to maritime security services, three more commercial ships were damaged in the gulf. As a result, the number of vessels attacked since the beginning of the conflict has risen to 14. The incidents occurred against the backdrop of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s key routes for transporting energy resources.

These developments are heightening concerns about global oil supplies. About one-fifth of the world’s oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and its blockade is already being described as the most serious shock to the energy market since the oil crises of the 1970s.

“Prepare for oil to cost $200 per barrel, because the price of oil depends on regional security, which you have destabilized.”

– Ebrahim Zolfaghari

This statement was made by a representative of Iran’s military command in an address to the United States. According to him, Tehran may also respond to strikes on financial infrastructure. Following a nighttime attack on a bank office in Tehran, he warned that Iran could target banks that conduct business with the United States or Israel.

Meanwhile, hostilities continue. Iran reported missile strikes on a U.S. base in northern Iraq, the U.S. Navy headquarters in the Middle East located in Bahrain, and targets in central Israel. Explosions were heard in Bahrain, while in Dubai two drones crashed near the airport, injuring four people.

Bahrain’s authorities said that some passenger and cargo aircraft were temporarily redirected to other airports to ensure uninterrupted flights in the region during the escalation.

Attacks on ships and the risk of an energy crisis

Among the vessels damaged in recent days was a Thai-flagged bulk carrier that caught fire after an explosion. The crew had to be evacuated. A Japanese-flagged container ship and another bulk carrier registered in the Marshall Islands were also damaged.

Despite the escalation, markets have so far reacted with restraint. After a sharp surge earlier in the week, oil prices – which nearly reached $120 per barrel – have fallen to around $90. Investors hope the conflict may be resolved in the near future.

At the same time, governments in various countries are already discussing emergency measures. The International Energy Agency is expected to recommend the use of about 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Even such a record volume, according to experts, would cover only about three weeks of normal oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

A war with no clear timeline for an end

Israel says that its operation against Iran will continue until its objectives are achieved. Among them are limiting Tehran’s military influence beyond its borders and destroying its nuclear program.

“The operation will continue without any time limits, for as long as necessary until we achieve all objectives and win this campaign.”

– Israel Katz

Meanwhile, mass funerals for military commanders killed in airstrikes are taking place in Iran. In Tehran, residents report that nightly bombings have become routine, and hundreds of thousands of people have left the city for rural areas.

According to Iran’s representative to the UN, more than 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed since airstrikes began on February 28. There have also been casualties as a result of attacks in Lebanon and Israel. Iranian strikes on Israeli territory have resulted in at least 11 deaths.

At the same time, Iranian authorities are issuing stern warnings about possible protests inside the country.

“Anyone who takes to the streets will be considered an enemy, not a protester. All our security forces have their fingers on the trigger.”

– Ahmadreza Radan

Tehran says it will not allow oil to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz until attacks by the United States and Israel stop. In turn, Washington warned that if the strait is fully blocked, the response could be significantly harsher.

Analysts note that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk to the global economy. The closure of one of the planet’s main energy routes could trigger a sharp rise in oil prices, global inflation, and a new wave of instability in financial markets.