A fragile calm may be emerging in the Middle East, but only on paper. The US says Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire that would stop cross-border fighting if Hezbollah halts attacks and pulls fighters from southern Lebanon. Trump says he secured buy-in from senior Hezbollah figures, yet the group has not publicly endorsed the deal and clashes continued in southern Lebanon after the announcement. Adding to the uncertainty, Iran said there has been “no tangible progress” in talks with Washington over a broader peace deal. Oil prices still fell as traders bet the region may be stepping back from the brink.
The timing is critical. Even as diplomats push for calm, the US and Iran have continued exchanging strikes, exposing the fragility of a wider truce. Trump is also facing pressure at home after lawmakers voted to curb US military involvement in Iran. The bigger question now isn’t whether the guns fall silent in Lebanon, it’s whether a broader regional peace can survive the competing agendas of Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem.