A small motorboat passes anchored vessels in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Thursday, June 11, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/Associated Press)
The flow of petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz is up to nearly 7 million barrels a day – around half of the crude that flowed through the key trade route at the start of the conflict – U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told executives Friday in Houston.
While the increased flow of oil from the Gulf and reports of a peace deal are good news for Houston consumers paying nearly $4 a gallon at the pump, they may discourage Texas oil companies from investing more in drilling new wells. Industry experts also remain skeptical that the strait, which normally moves 20% of the world’s petroleum products, has opened as much as the administration estimates.
“That’s a rough estimate, a rough average of where we are right now, and it’s rising,” Wright told a crowd at the Bloomberg Energy Security Executive Briefing at Hotel ZaZa downtown.
Investors and experts have been hesitant to pull the trigger on funding projects or execute major changes in production plans, however, despite the increased price of oil relieving pains felt within the oil and gas industry.
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The price of oil hit record lows in 2025, so the increase in the per-barrel price as a result of the war has been a breath of fresh air for Texas oil and gas producers. The average price of oil last year was in the mid $60s for Texas crude. This year, it has hovered between $80 and $100.
A June report from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank showed that “uncertainty about how long oil prices will remain elevated is tempering opportunism in an industry that appears far more financially disciplined than in the past.”
That’s in part because despite the global supply chop, the price-per-barrel has not hit the $150 to $200 range analysts feared it might toward the beginning of the Iran War. The market response has been muted, as countries from China to the U.S. tap their oil reserves and take steps to get their crude from other sources.
Chief executive Mike Wirth of Houston oil giant Chevron, said while he doesn’t agree with the administration’s estimates, he’s not sure the market could handle the supply cut or the muted price response for much longer either way.
“Our view would be it’s probably not quite that much,” said Wirth, who spoke after Wright at the event.
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Chevron’s estimates of the amount of petroleum products getting through the strait are closer to 3 million barrels-per-day. Without the strait opening and with countries diluting their oil reserves while they wait out the conflict, Wirth said the real question is not what is keeping the price of oil from exploding, but how much longer the market can handle the supply cut.
“We’ve moved from comfortable inventories under normal times to what would soon be uncomfortable – and I think that’s the real question – is how much longer can these measures kind of ameliorate the risk, and at some point they may not be able to,” Wirth said.
That reckoning may come more toward July or August, if the situation in the Middle East doesn’t change, Wirth said.
Wright confirmed a peace deal may be imminent.
“We’ll restore energy flows in the United States, with or without Iran,” Wright said.
Chevron’s chief executive cautioned against making any immediate moves based on headlines around a potential truce.
“The evidence would say you shouldn’t fully believe that until you see the agreement signed and you see the actions begin to come into effect,” Wirth said. “Iran has a long history of being a kind of a patient and immovable negotiating force.”
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This article originally published at More oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but Houston executives remain skeptical.