Intelligence sources now say Iran could sever access to a vital shipping chokepoint, creating sudden supply shocks and forcing hard decisions by regional and global powers.
Recently, American intelligence services have concluded that Iran can close access to the Strait of Hormuz at will, using this as a powerful instrument of influence on the global economy in wartime; such information has been voiced by three sources close to intelligence conclusions.
Although a framework agreement is planned to be signed on Friday as a prologue to future nuclear negotiations, Iran has demonstrated that it possesses the ability to shut the strait within the current conflict; U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that a similar scenario could recur.
“We have effectively handed Iran control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon.”
– CNN
In addition, Iran has mastered the use of targeted strikes against the energy infrastructure of Gulf countries as an asymmetric tool that could play a role in the future as well.
The United States has been forced to engage in intensive negotiations with Tehran to ensure the full opening of the strait, underscoring its long-standing advantage on this issue.
CNN reached out to the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment.
Intelligence assessment and possible consequences
“The goal is to create a mechanism that would make it impossible to close the strait again.”
– a senior administration official
Iran continued to press to influence the free flow of energy through the strait, which angered China and the Gulf states during negotiations.
A slight uncertainty regarding what exactly is contained in the agreement, and other risks, will likely cause vessel movement through this critically important waterway to proceed slowly – weeks or months.
One of the main reasons for Iran to maintain influence is to preserve a significant portion of its arsenal: missiles, drones, rocket launchers, and hundreds of small fast boats, which continue to hinder transportation through the waterway.
There are also reports that Iran is rebuilding its military-industrial base faster than the United States expected, and has already begun producing new drones, CNN reports.
There is talk that allies could patrol the strait after it opens, but it is unclear how this would work; the latest intelligence assessments consider such a possibility.
Even with an approximate agreement, several sources warn that Iran is developing an economic “nuclear option” in case talks fail – using the Houthis to close Bab-el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean – another global trade chokepoint.
The intelligence community emphasizes that the administration’s decision to initiate conflict without fully accounting for Iran’s willingness to use the strait as leverage could have long-term consequences and go beyond any framework agreement.
In ongoing work, American intelligence agencies continue to reassess under what circumstances they could use such leverage in the future, based on how events unfold.
Although intelligence does not provide a single conclusion, several sources share the view that Iran has strengthened its positions: it retains significant stockpiles of weapons and continues to build capability to act through the strait without substantial resource costs.
“They are hunting a few mines they’ve found, but ships are already going to sea.”
– Donald Trump
Despite parties’ efforts to seek a peaceful path, intelligence warns that Iran still may use Hormuz as an influential instrument, but this will require thoughtful decisions and diplomatic caution from all participants.
In summary, the latest data indicate that the Strait of Hormuz remains a critically important element of global security and the economy, and a future agreement does not resolve all questions about how to deter the use of this lever of influence in the future.
The world continues to monitor developments and remains focused on ensuring stable trade routes while countries seek a path toward stabilization and peaceful escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.