PolitiFact: Could a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz drive up oil and gas prices in the US?
TO MAINE AND 101. LOOKING GOOD IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. TONIGHT WE ARE GETTING THE FACTS ON A LOCATION THAT IS CENTRAL TO THE WAR WITH IRAN. A HOLD UP IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS LEADING TO A SPIKE IN GAS PRICES. AS THIS WAR CONTINUES. LOU JACOBSON WITH POLITIFACT JOINING US LIVE NOW. LOU, THANKS FOR BEING HERE. SHIP TRAFFIC IS NOW GROUNDED IN THAT AREA. CAN YOU START BY JUST EXPLAINING WHAT THAT MEANS? YEAH. SO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS THE PRIMARY ROUTE FOR SEVERAL MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES TO SHIP CRUDE OIL, AS WELL AS NATURAL GAS AND OTHER PRODUCTS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD. IT IS QUITE VULNERABLE BECAUSE THERE’S ONLY A TWO MILE WIDE SHIPPING LANE IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. IN RECENT YEARS, ABOUT ONE FIFTH OF THE WORLD’S CRUDE OIL SUPPLY HAS FLOWED THROUGH THE STRAIT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS, THE US ACTUALLY RELIES LESS ON THIS OIL THAN CERTAIN OTHER COUNTRIES DO. SOMETHING LIKE 84% OF IT GOES TO ASIA, AND THAT INCLUDES CHINA, INDIA, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA. BUT THE US WOULD STILL BE AFFECTED BECAUSE OIL IS PRICED GLOBALLY. WHEN THE PRICE RISES FOR SOME COUNTRIES, IT RISES, ESPECIALLY FOR BASICALLY ALL COUNTRIES. SOME OF THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST CAN USE PIPELINES AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO SHIP THEIR OIL. BUT THIS CAPACITY FALLS WELL SHORT OF WHAT TANKERS CAN SHIP THROUGH THE STRAIT. WELL, LOU, THE U. S DOES PRODUCE A LOT OF OIL. COULD MORE DRILLING HERE HELP TO BRING DOWN THOSE PRICES? YEAH. SO THE DRILL BABY DRILL CALL FROM POLITICIANS DOES HAVE CERTAIN LIMITS IN THIS CASE. FIRST OF ALL, COMPANIES WANT TO BE CERTAIN THAT THE PRICES WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THEM SPENDING MORE ON NEW DRILLING. AND IT’S NOT CERTAIN YET WHETHER THEY WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH OR STAY THAT WAY LONG ENOUGH TO TO CONVINCE OIL COMPANIES THAT THIS IS A GOOD BET FOR THEIR COMPANY. AND SECOND, WHILE THE US DOES PRODUCE A LOT OF CRUDE OIL, IT CAN’T REFINE ALL THE OIL IT PUMPS OUT OF THE GROUND BECAUSE OF A TECHNICAL MISMATCH WITH THE TYPES OF REFINERIES THAT ARE LOCATED HERE IN THE US, AND CHANGING THE MIX OF REFINERIES. SO THEY WORK WITH MORE US PRODUCED CRUDE OIL WOULD BE EXPENSIVE AND TAKE YEARS TO FIX. ANOTHER THING THAT PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT, THERE ARE REPORTS OF COUNTRIES, INCLUDING THE US, OPENING UP RESERVES. COULD THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT? YEAH. SO THEY CAN HELP UP TO A POINT AT LEAST THE OIL IN THE GLOBAL MARKET IS CURRENTLY BEING BLOCKED, COMES TO ABOUT 20 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. IF THE WORLD’S STOCKPILE IS RELEASED 400 MILLION BARRELS A DAY, WHICH IS WHAT THEY SAID THEY PLAN TO DO, THAT WOULD COVER 20 DAYS WORTH OF OIL THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCKED IN THE STRAIT. BUT IT’S ACTUALLY MORE COMPLICATED THAN THAT BECAUSE IT’LL TAKE TIME TO CARRY OUT THOSE SORTS OF RELEASES, AND IT’S UNCLEAR WHETHER RELEASING THAT MUCH OIL WOULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF THE PHYSICAL STOCKPILES, WHICH ARE FREQUENTLY UNDERGROUND. FURTHERMORE, EVEN SO, THAT GIVES YOU 20 DAYS SUPPLY, AND IT’S NOT CLEAR THAT THE THREAT TO THE STRAITS WILL BE OVER B
PolitiFact: Could a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz drive up oil and gas prices in the US?
Updated: 11:46 PM EDT Mar 12, 2026
VIDEO: A holdup in the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns about rising crude oil and gasoline prices as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue. PolitiFact chief correspondent Lou Jacobson discusses why the strait is critical to the global oil supply and what options the U.S. has to offset potential disruptions.
MANCHESTER, N.H. —
VIDEO: A holdup in the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns about rising crude oil and gasoline prices as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue.
PolitiFact chief correspondent Lou Jacobson discusses why the strait is critical to the global oil supply and what options the U.S. has to offset potential disruptions.