Oil Prices Drop Amid Strait of Hormuz Recovery and US-Iran Deal Progress

Jun 24, 2026

Oil benchmarks extended their decline for a third day on Wednesday, pulling back as indications of a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and thawing U.S.-Iran ties alleviated worries about a sustained interruption to energy shipments from the Middle East.

At 05:39 ET (09:39 GMT), Brent crude futures for August delivery dropped 2% to $75.52 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.8% to $71.89 a barrel. Both contracts had closed near four-month lows in the preceding session.

Trader sentiment was shaped by data showing that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering after a multi-month conflict that had blocked one of the globe’s most vital energy passageways. Reports indicated that several previously stuck supertankers have now departed the Gulf loaded with crude, and an increasing number of liquefied natural gas carriers linked to Qatar have resumed transits through the channel. Market participants view these developments as an early indication that regional energy shipments are returning to normal.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached a 60-day framework aimed at achieving a more comprehensive accord, and Washington has issued a temporary sanctions exemption permitting some Iranian oil exports to continue through August. These steps have fueled expectations that additional crude supply will re-enter global markets.

Analysts at ING noted in a research report that estimates indicate roughly 6-7 million barrels per day of oil have moved through the strait recently, still well below the pre-conflict volume of about 20 million barrels per day. However, they pointed out that because Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline alternatives, oil flows through the strait only need to recover to approximately 14 million barrels per day for Persian Gulf supply to reach pre-war levels. The analysts added that they still consider the oil sell-off excessive, as the market continues to tighten, and that price action suggests investors anticipate a fairly swift rebound in Persian Gulf oil output.

Investors also reviewed inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute. U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 765,000 barrels during the week ending June 19, less than the larger decline analysts had forecast. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for WTI decreased by 1 million barrels. Gasoline supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels. Traders are now looking to official figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday for further confirmation.

Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.

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#
Company
Headquarters
Focus
Scale
Note

1
Saudi Aramco
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
Integrated oil and gas
Global
World’s largest oil producer

2
China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC)
Beijing, China
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major state-owned producer

3
Sinopec
Beijing, China
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Large refining and chemical capacity

4
ExxonMobil
Spring, Texas, USA
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major international major

5
Royal Dutch Shell
London, UK / The Hague, NL
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Global energy major

6
BP
London, UK
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major international energy company

7
Chevron
San Ramon, California, USA
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Major US-based international

8
TotalEnergies
Courbevoie, France
Integrated oil and gas
Global
French multinational energy major

9
Gazprom
Moscow, Russia
Gas and oil
Global
World’s largest natural gas company

10
Rosneft
Moscow, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Leading Russian oil company

11
Kuwait Petroleum Corp.
Kuwait City, Kuwait
Integrated oil and gas
Global
State-owned oil company of Kuwait

12
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC)
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Integrated oil and gas
Global
State-owned company of UAE

13
Petrobras
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Oil and gas
Global
Brazilian state-controlled leader

14
Lukoil
Moscow, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Largest non-state Russian oil co.

15
Petronas
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Malaysian state-owned energy co.

16
QatarEnergy
Doha, Qatar
Oil and gas
Global
State-owned petroleum company

17
ConocoPhillips
Houston, Texas, USA
Exploration and production
Global
World’s largest independent E&P

18
Valero Energy
San Antonio, Texas, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
World’s largest independent refiner

19
Phillips 66
Houston, Texas, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
Major US downstream company

20
Marathon Petroleum
Findlay, Ohio, USA
Refining and marketing
Global
Major US refiner and marketer

21
Equinor
Stavanger, Norway
Oil and gas
Global
Norwegian state-controlled major

22
Eni
Rome, Italy
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Italian multinational energy co.

23
Surgutneftegas
Surgut, Russia
Oil and gas
Global
Major Russian oil producer

24
Pemex
Mexico City, Mexico
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Mexican state-owned petroleum co.

25
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.
New Delhi, India
Refining and marketing
Global
India’s largest downstream company

26
Repsol
Madrid, Spain
Integrated oil and gas
Global
Spanish multinational energy co.

27
Occidental Petroleum
Houston, Texas, USA
Exploration and production
Global
Major US-based E&P company

28
Hess Corporation
New York, New York, USA
Exploration and production
Global
Independent E&P company

29
Suncor Energy
Calgary, Canada
Integrated oil sands
Global
Canadian oil sands leader

30
Reliance Industries
Mumbai, India
Refining and petrochemicals
Global
World’s largest refining complex

This report provides a comprehensive view of the global crude oil and processed petroleum industry, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the worldwide value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between exporters and importers worldwide. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the global crude oil and processed petroleum landscape.

Quick navigation
Key findings

Global demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking cost-competitive producers to import-reliant markets.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating distinct cost curves across regions.
Market concentration varies by country, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned globally.
Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts across countries and regions.

Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments and regions
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Global trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageCrude Oil and Processed PetroleumCountry coverageCountry profiles and benchmarks

For the global report, country profiles provide a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators. The profiles highlight the largest consuming and producing markets and allow direct benchmarking across peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links crude oil and processed petroleum demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts.

Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing countries

Each country projection is built from its own historical pattern and the regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report

Quantify global demand and identify the most attractive markets
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target countries
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against major competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of global crude oil and processed petroleum dynamics.

FAQ
What is included in the global crude oil and processed petroleum market?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data at country and regional levels, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which countries are profiled in detail?

The report provides profiles for the largest consuming and producing countries, enabling benchmarking across peers.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

1. INTRODUCTION

Report Scope and Analytical Framing

Report DescriptionResearch Methodology and the Analytical FrameworkData-Driven Decisions for Your BusinessGlossary and Product-Specific Terms2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Concise View of Market Direction

Key FindingsMarket TrendsStrategic ImplicationsKey Risks and Watchpoints3. MARKET SIZE AND DEVELOPMENT PATH

Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing

Market Size: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)Growth Outlook and Market Development Path to 2035Growth Driver DecompositionScenario Framework and Sensitivities4. CATEGORY SCOPE, DEFINITIONS AND BOUNDARIES

Commercial and Technical Scope

What Is Included and How the Market Is DefinedMarket Inclusion CriteriaProduct / Category DefinitionExclusions and BoundariesDistinction From Adjacent Products and Substitute Categories5. CATEGORY STRUCTURE, SEGMENTATION AND PRODUCT MATRIX

How the Market Splits Into Decision-Relevant Buckets

By Product Type / ConfigurationBy Application / End UseBy Customer / Buyer TypeBy Channel / Business Model / Technology PlatformSegment Attractiveness MatrixProduct Matrix and Segment Growth Logic6. DEMAND, CUSTOMER AND CONSUMER ARCHITECTURE

Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves

Consumption / Demand by Country or Region: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)Demand by End-Use and Buyer GroupDemand by Customer / Consumer SegmentPurchase Criteria, Switching Logic and Adoption BarriersReplacement, Replenishment and Installed-Base DynamicsFuture Demand Outlook7. PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND VALUE CHAIN

Supply Footprint, Trade and Value Capture

Production by CountryManufacturing Footprint and Supply HubsCapacity, Bottlenecks and Supply RisksValue Chain Logic and Margin PoolsRoute-to-Market and Distribution Structure8. TRADE, SOURCING AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE

Trade Flows and External Dependence

Exports by CountryImports by CountryTrade Balance and Sourcing StructureImport Dependence and Supply ResilienceStrategic Trade Corridors9. PRICING, PROMOTION AND COMMERCIAL MODEL

Price Formation and Revenue Logic

Price Levels and Price CorridorsPricing by Segment / Specification / GeographyCost Drivers and Margin LogicPromotion, Discounting and Procurement PatternsRevenue Quality and Commercial Levers10. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PORTFOLIO POWER

Who Wins and Why

Market Structure and ConcentrationCompetitive ArchetypesSegment-by-Segment Competitive IntensityPortfolio Breadth and Product PositioningCapability MatrixStrategic Moves, Partnerships and Expansion Signals11. GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE AND COUNTRY ROLES

Where Growth and Supply Concentrate

Core Demand MarketsCore Production MarketsExport HubsImport-Reliant MarketsFastest-Growing MarketsCountry Archetypes and Strategic Roles12. GROWTH PLAYBOOK AND MARKET ENTRY

Commercial Entry and Scaling Priorities

Where to PlayHow to WinBuild vs Buy vs PartnerRoute-to-Market ChoicesLocalization and Capability ThresholdsEntry Risks and Mitigation13. WHERE TO PLAY NEXT: MOST ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

Where the Best Expansion Logic Sits

Most Attractive Product NichesMost Attractive Customer SegmentsMost Attractive Markets for Commercial ExpansionWhite Spaces and Unsaturated OpportunitiesHigh-Margin and Underpenetrated PocketsMost Promising Product Adjacencies14. PROFILES OF MAJOR COMPANIES

Leading Players and Strategic Archetypes

Leading Manufacturers and SuppliersRegional Specialists and ChallengersProduction Footprint and Manufacturing CapacitiesProduct Portfolio and Segment FocusPricing Positioning and Indicative Price LogicChannel / Distribution StrengthStrategic Archetypes15. COUNTRY PROFILES

Detailed View of the Most Important National Markets

View detailed country profiles50 countries

15.1

United States