Review

In the absence of a coherent U.S. strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver.

—Dr. Paul Donovan, UBS morning audio comment, www.ubs.com/cio, March 12, 2026.

The lack of clarity on the goals or the direction of the U.S./Israel/Iran conflict is weighing heavily on world stock indices. Global equities want to rally, but Iran’s success in restricting the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Crude Oil prices higher. Oil surged to $119.48 on March 5, followed by a huge drop to $76.73 on March 10, and back up to test $100 on Friday, March 13. This, in turn, is deterring central banks from lowering interest rates, driving up the U.S. Dollar, which is suppresses the risk appetite for precious metals and equities.

In Europe, all indices fell hard into March 9, the midpoint of the Mercury retrograde cycle. This was the lowest price since the primary cycle began on November 21, as we expect to see when a 50-week cycle trough is forming. Equities tried to rally but couldn’t gain much traction by the end of the week.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, it was similar. The Japanese Nikkei, Shanghai SSE, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, and the Australian ASX all made multi-week (if not multi-month) lows on March 9, but didn’t rebound that much afterwards. The NIFTY Index in India was even weaker, closing on Friday at its lowest level since April 2025. It had also reached an all-time high recently, on February 3. Things moved fast and south in one month.

It was the same story in the U.S. All the indices fell hard into Monday, March 9, to their lowest point of the primary cycle that began in November. They tried to rebound, but by Friday, the DJIA was making new multi-month lows. The indices are looking for some good news to reverse back up.

It wasn’t much better in Gold or Silver, which continued trading range-bound all week, with Silver between 79.00 and 90.50. It may take the Trickster turning direct before it breaks out of this range. Bitcoin attempted a rally but still struggles to move above 75,000. The clear winners last week were in Crude Oil and Soybeans, right in line with our Saturn/Neptune themes and studies.

Short-term geocosmics

The Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit and more warships to the Middle East, as Iran steps up its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said that it is unlikely Iranians will rise up soon against the regime and that he would “feel it in my bones” when the Iran war should end.

—The Wall Street Live, “Pentagon Is Moving Additional Marines, Warships to the Middle East,” www.wsj.com, March 13, 2026.

We are still in the midst of the Saturn/Neptune whirlwind, February-April 2026. The actual conjunction of this important 36-year planetary cycle happened on February 20, 2026, the very day that the Supreme Court ruled the U.S. tariff policies enacted on “Liberation Day” in April 2025 were, in fact, illegal. But now there are a series of transits “translating” over Saturn and Neptune as they separate, which keeps the themes of uncertainty and dissolution of norms highlighted through mid-April.

The first instance was March 7-8, when Venus “translated” Saturn and Neptune. The second will be the Sun crossing into Aries and over Saturn and Neptune March 20-25. And then Mars will do the same as it crosses into Aries April 9-19. This suggests that fighting might continue until then, for with Neptune, it is hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel, especially when decisions depend upon the man calling the shots “feeling it in his bones.” With Saturn conjunct Neptune being active through April, it’s not clear that “feeling it in my bones” is really a good metric for making a judgment call of this importance.

All of this uncertainty, of course, has been compounded by the presence of another Mercury retrograde cycle (“the Trickster”), which began on February 25 and lasts through March 20. Usually, this cycle would be useful for gathering information before making an extremely consequential decision. But as it began with the impatient and impulsive (some would say “reckless”) Mars/Uranus square on February 27, the choice was made then to strike Iran. As “fate” would have it, Iran’s leadership just happened to convene for an in-person meeting of its top decision-makers at that time, and it was an “opportunity” to strike with dramatic effect that may not have been offered again.

Longer-term thoughts and opinion

Whatever you think of the wisdom or efficacy of the president’s policies, their effectiveness is almost always vitiated by an inability to articulate and communicate goals in a way that helps make them achievable.

—Gerald Baker, “In a War of Words, Trump Always Defeats Himself,” The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2026.

“Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”

—the Marx Brothers in the movie, “Duck Soup,” (1933).

Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, affecting 15-20% of the world’s Crude Oil deliveries, is a classic example of Saturn (limits and loss) conjunct Neptune (Crude Oil) in Aries (war). It also fits the symbolism of not being able to articulate clear objectives or an endpoint to this conflict, other than when someone’s bones might rattle. Saturn wants to know what the goals are and the plan to accomplish them. Neptune hasn’t a clue other than a list of “hopes and wishes.” This combination can lead to unintended consequences, such as a rapid increase in energy costs (inflation) that delays plans to lower interest rates.

There needs to be a pause in the fighting and a reopening of the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz to lower oil prices. My best estimate is that this will happen sometime between April 20 and July 25. And when it does, a great wave of euphoria will hit the stock and Treasury markets, and rates will come down going into the midterm U.S. elections. The elections will become the focal point for major White House decisions and policy changes between now and August. However, my call in the “Forecast 2026” book still stands: “at least one of the chambers goes Democrat, and maybe both.”

In the meantime, we will continue to closely observe the chart of Donald Trump, aka “The Man Who Would Be King.” Love him or hate him (there doesn’t seem to be any in-between), he is now in the position of steering the ship of our destiny right now. Therefore, what he “feels in his bones” dictates whether this ship is headed towards an unseen iceberg or some miraculous achievement towards prolonged world peace.

He’s writing the script right now, and it is a challenge for him to convey a clear message. This is reflected in transiting Saturn about to form a T-square to his natal Mercury/Neptune cardinal square, April 3-28. He wants to make decisions and act upon them. But his decision-making skills are being questioned sharply.

This is all very interesting because the square to Neptune is the only major aspect involving his natal Mercury. This planet rules the mental processes of gathering, assimilating, and dispersing information. Rather than relying on facts or evidence, this aspect may create a parallel reality (or a fabrication of reality) of its own, in which everyone else has to adjust and fit in, rather than the other way around. But there will be times when the two realities are not complementary. The message may get lost, garbled, or contradicted, causing confusion and uncertainty about what one is doing and what is to come next. No one, not even the president himself, really knows, despite rhetoric to the contrary.

One’s reputation for truthfulness, accuracy, and “good judgment” may be under attack under such an aspect. Transiting Saturn in a hard aspect to one’s natal Neptune can do that itself, but with natal Mercury also involved, unwelcomed problems in communication may be self-created. One must be careful about what is said, and any communication or decision must be clear and transparent, for there is a possibility of being exposed as “covering up” or “hiding” something. Scandals can erupt from this mixture. For this reason, I don’t think a claim that the “war is over” and “the objectives have been met,” or that the Epstein files have all been released, will be accepted during this time. And given that Saturn will come back and go stationary direct in square aspect to Mercury again in November-January, means similar conditions may return. Note how this transit revolves around the mid-term elections. Bones will surely be rattling then.

If you read Pouyan Zolfagharnia’s excellent special MMA report on the USA/Israel/Iran conflict sent out last week, then you know that the astrology points to two paths in this war. In one, the Saturn/Uranus waning sextile is underway. Still, it is already separating as these two powerhouses move towards their waning semi-square and balsamic period (April 2027-January 2028), and eventually to their conjunction on June 28, 2032. The Islamic Revolution took place on the last Saturn-Uranus waning sextile, which occurred in September 1979 and July 1980. Thus, based on that correspondence, there is a possibility that this current war or regime shift could occur quickly. However, 1979-1980 “… also marked the start of the Iran-Iraq war, which would not end until the 1988 Saturn-Uranus conjunction, which also saw the mass execution of Iranian political dissidents. The conjunction ended with the death of the supreme leader and revolutionary, Ayatollah Khomeini,” according to Pouyan’s report. Thus, new leadership may happen here, but the actual war and final determination of a new regime replacing the current one may not be in place until we get closer to the Saturn/Uranus conjunction early in the next decade.

In the meantime, the price of oil may remain elevated but exhibit wide swings. While it is rising, it will be difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. But they will likely try anyway, especially during one of the down periods for Crude Oil, which could unfold between May and September (July 18-22 is the center of this convergence involving Jupiter to the outer planets). If that happens, it may be an excellent buying opportunity, as it doesn’t appear that the tension between the U.S. and Iran will end anytime soon. It doesn’t appear that Iran is going to “unconditionally surrender.” Their resistance may be even more apparent in April as the president is challenged on his rendition of reality versus everyone else’s. The split in his base may widen if he is not careful with his words and attentive to their concerns. Under hard transiting aspects to a Mercury/Neptune natal hard aspect, the best course is to be authentic and speak the truth. Any attempt to obfuscate the truth will only escalate disapproval. And there is an election coming up.