Syria’s post-Assad turnaround gets brownie points from IMF + World Bank: The IMF wrapped a staff visit to Damascus with an upbeat read, according to a statement yesterday, while the World Bank signed off on Syria’s 2026 reforms and is raising its grant allocations for 2027, Finance Minister Mohammed Yisr Barnieh said.

The growth call is striking: The IMF expects Syria’s economy to expand at double digits this year, even with the ongoing regional conflict, with strong growth continuing into 2027. The growth is expected to be driven by agriculture rebounding, expanding hydrocarbon production and electricity provision, and growing trade and services. That’s all set to be lifted by the return of refugees and diaspora Syrians, a rise in visitors, and higher government spending.

(Cautious) optimism: Growth is uneven across regions, poverty remains widespread albeit reduced, and inflation — which had slowed to low double digits in 2025 — has picked up considerably in 2026 on higher fuel and food import prices, strong domestic demand from public sector wage hikes, and rising utility and housing costs. The IMF expects inflation to ease in 2027 only if import pressures fade and policy stays disciplined.

The fiscal picture is the clearest bright spot: The central government closed 2025 with a small surplus, and revenues are set to rise substantially in 2026 on higher tax and customs receipts, rising hydrocarbon income, and one-off items like telecom license and fuel-transit fees.

That fiscal credibility is what the World Bank is rewarding: The lender’s review of Syria’s Performance and Policy Actions under the IDA’s Sustainable Development Finance Policy confirmed satisfactory progress on debt sustainability, management, and transparency, triggering an incentive allocation and bigger IDA grants for FY 2027. This follows earlier World Bank projects including a USD 146 mn electricity grid reform and a USD 20 mn public financial management program.

The glaring weak spot: Syria’s banks. The Central Bank of Syria introduced its new currency at the start of the year, but monetary policy is “severely constrained by a highly dysfunctional banking system” and a lack of policy tools, the IMF said. The fund’s priorities include new central bank and banking laws, a thorough health check of the banks, and a strong AML/CFT framework to get Syria off FATF’s gray list.

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