Forecast Trend Report by Period

See more mid- to long-term trend analysis
Photo: Shutterstock
President Donald Trump has been considering declaring victory and ending the war with Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, even without a nuclear deal, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Journal, citing multiple US officials, said on August 9 that Trump recently signaled to aides he could withdraw from the war without reaching a nuclear agreement.
The thinking is based on Trump’s view that Iran would struggle to rebuild its nuclear program during his term after the US military destroyed three major nuclear facilities last year: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
The White House’s focus in end-of-war talks has also shifted to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, in part because of the effect on domestic oil prices.
Ahead of the November midterm elections, the average US gasoline price stood at $4.02 a gallon as of August 8, up from $3.16 a year earlier.
Pressure is also building from the depletion of US weapons stockpiles, including interceptor missiles.
Iran’s hard-line preconditions, however, are making an exit strategy difficult.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council presented six demands, including lifting sanctions on Iran, ending the maritime blockade, withdrawing nearby US troops and providing full compensation for war damage.
Despite those demands, the Trump administration appears to be dialing down the intensity of its military response.
Trump told Axios in an interview on August 9 that the US was responding to Iran “at a low level.”
Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that Iran’s military capabilities had been significantly weakened. He added that “we will continue the pressure we can apply.”
Park Sang-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter, highseoul@hankyung.com