Esmail Qaani’s visit comes as Iraq’s government moves to monopolise control of arms in the country [Getty]
The commander of Iran’s Quds Force made an unannounced visit to Baghdad on Monday, carrying a message to Iran-aligned armed groups to avoid confrontation with Iraqi security forces as the government faces a looming deadline to bring weapons under state control.
Brig Gen Esmail Qaani held a series of separate meetings with senior figures in Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework and leaders of armed factions during the hours-long visit, according to sources familiar with the talks who spoke to The New Arab.
But the discussions extended beyond the increasingly fraught question of the factions’ weapons. Iraqi officials also used the meetings to press Tehran for firm guarantees that Iraqi oil tankers would be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said, as mounting financial pressures begin to weigh on Baghdad’s ability to meet its obligations, including public-sector salaries.
The request underscores Iraq’s precarious position as it tries to insulate its economy and domestic politics from a widening regional confrontation while navigating its close relationship with neighbouring Iran.
At the centre of Qaani’s visit was one of Iraq’s most politically sensitive issues: the government’s effort to establish a state monopoly over arms.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government has set 30 September as the deadline for Iran-aligned factions to hand over their weapons, however the process has so far produced little visible evidence of disarmament.
According to the sources, Qaani urged faction leaders to avoid any armed confrontation with Iraqi security forces, amid concerns that Baghdad could resort to tougher measures, including force, if groups refuse to comply.
But Qaani gave no indication that Tehran had accepted the demand for the factions to surrender their weapons. Instead, he portrayed the disarmament push as driven by American pressure, the sources said.
He also stressed the importance of preserving the factions’ military capabilities in the face of what he described as growing US threats against the Iran-led regional alliance known as the “Axis of Resistance”.
The message appeared to reflect the difficult balance Tehran is seeking to maintain in Iraq: protecting the armed groups that have long formed an important pillar of Iranian influence while preventing a confrontation that could pit those factions against the Iraqi state or US forces.
Hussein al-Asaad, an expert on strategic affairs, said Qaani’s personal intervention showed how seriously Tehran viewed the debate over the future of Iraq’s armed factions.
“The Iranian intervention in this issue is not new, but the presence of the Quds Force commander personally in Baghdad at this stage sends a message that Tehran considers the factions’ weapons a strategic issue affecting its influence and interests in Iraq,” Asaad told The New Arab.
Iran, he said, appeared to be seeking a compromise under which the factions would avoid fighting Iraqi forces without entirely surrendering their military capabilities.
Such an arrangement could involve reorganising the factions’ relationship with state institutions while preserving some of their influence, he added.
The stakes have risen as the September deadline approaches. Despite government claims that some groups have already begun handing over weapons, no images of arms being transferred have been made public, including by factions that have said they are prepared to comply.
The government has also not disclosed what types or quantities of weapons have been surrendered, or issued detailed statements documenting the process.
Several of Iraq’s largest and most heavily armed factions continue to resist the demand, raising questions over what Baghdad intends to do if they refuse to comply.
During a visit to Washington in mid-July, Zaidi said after meeting US President Donald Trump that some factions had already surrendered “many weapons” and that after 30 September there would be no need for any armed factions to remain.
He provided no further details.
Asaad warns that the dispute could move from political negotiations to confrontation on the ground if no agreement is reached.
Iranian calls to avoid clashes could reduce that risk, he said, but they should not be interpreted as Tehran accepting the complete disarmament of its Iraqi allies.
“Iraq faces a real test of its sovereignty and its ability to make security decisions free from the influence of outside powers, whether Iran or the United States,” he said. “The decision to place weapons exclusively in the hands of the state must be an Iraqi decision.”
For Baghdad, however, the dispute over weapons is unfolding alongside a more immediate economic concern.
During Qaani’s meetings with political leaders, Iraqi officials sought what the sources described as a “real and serious” Iranian commitment to guarantee the passage of Iraqi oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
The request reflects growing concern over Iraq’s finances and the vulnerability of an economy heavily dependent on oil exports. The pressures have already begun to raise concerns about the government’s ability to meet financial commitments, including the payment of state salaries, according to the sources.