From European fragmentation to strategic autonomy
The strategic diversification of the Gulf States on the multipolar chessboard
Moving beyond the conventional lens: European assets in the modern Gulf
From transactional sales to joint value creation: the human dimension
Two autonomies destined to converge
The armed confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran represents far more than another cyclical crisis in a region accustomed to instability. It has brought into sharp focus the profound transformation of the Middle East while exposing some of the most visible structural shortcomings in European foreign policy.
For the European Union, this turning point should serve as a decisive catalyst to overhaul its relationship with the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), recognizing that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain can no longer be viewed solely through the prism of energy supplies, trade balances, or defensive security.
The Gulf is establishing itself as one of the pivotal arenas shaping the emerging international order, and Europe must engage through an autonomous, coherent strategy.
Member States of the Gulf Cooperation Council consolidate regional cooperation – PHOTO/ARCHIVE
From European fragmentation to strategic autonomy
Patrick Costello, a former European Union diplomat and senior official, outlines this imperative clearly in his analysis published in Afkar/Ideas by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed).
Costello highlights an uncomfortable reality: upon the outbreak of hostilities, European governments adopted fragmented positions that hindered the formulation of a cohesive collective response. This divergence stands in stark contrast to the central diplomatic role Europe played a decade ago during nuclear negotiations with Iran monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
His assessment underscores a fundamental challenge: Europe must design foreign policies anchored in its own strategic interests rather than acting as a passive follower of decisions made in Washington.
Strategic autonomy does not mean severing transatlantic ties; it requires Europe to define its interests clearly, set its priorities, and deploy the diplomatic, economic, and technological instruments necessary to defend them. Few global regions are as integral to those core interests today as the Gulf.
Executive Vice-President of the European Commission for Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy, Henna Virkkunen – REUTERS/ YVES HERMAN
The strategic diversification of the Gulf States on the multipolar chessboard
While Europe debates its strategic autonomy, Gulf nations have spent years implementing theirs. John Calabrese, professor at American University in Washington, D.C., observes how the conflict has accelerated the shift towards a highly competitive, multipolar system.
This dynamic is essential to understanding the region’s trajectory. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain are not merely substituting their historic security guarantor for powers such as China, Russia, India, or the EU; they are pursuing a comprehensive diversification of partnerships to expand sovereign decision-making power.
They maintain strategic defence coordination with the US Department of State, advance high-level commercial and technological cooperation with Beijing, deepen economic integration with India and Asia, and simultaneously seek expanded areas of collaboration with Europe. Rather than joining fixed geopolitical blocs, they engage omnidirectionally to advance their national transformation agendas.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks during a press conference following the Arab and Islamic ministerial meeting on regional security in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on 19 March 2026 – REUTERS/ MOHAMMED BENMANSOUR
Moving beyond the conventional lens: European assets in the modern Gulf
This creates a significant strategic opportunity for the European Commission and EU Member States. Europe offers assets that are highly valued across the GCC: a large unified market, advanced industrial capabilities, top-tier academic institutions, cutting-edge research centres, expertise in renewable energy transitions, transport infrastructure, healthcare, culture, and robust regulatory standards.
However, Europe must abandon a transactional model focused almost exclusively on hydrocarbons, weapons sales, and inward investment. Josep Borrell, President of CIDOB and former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, has openly criticised these historic limitations, calling for a proactive, authoritative European geopolitical role in the Middle East.
Strategic autonomy extends far beyond increasing defence budgets: it requires active diplomatic leadership, energy security architectures, industrial policy, technological sovereignty, diversified trade routes, and a sustained political presence in decisive regions like the Gulf.
EU institutional leaders assess investments in critical technologies and common defence – PHOTO/EU
From transactional sales to joint value creation: the human dimension
The ambitious socioeconomic overhauls underway across Gulf monarchies open wide horizons for cooperation in green hydrogen, artificial intelligence, sustainable infrastructure, cultural initiatives, advanced healthcare, education, smart cities, and social development models.
Europe has substantial value to deliver, but engagement rules have evolved: European stakeholders can no longer approach the Gulf simply seeking export markets, but must focus on co-investing and building strategic joint ventures.
International strategic consultancies operate precisely upon this principle. Bridging Europe and the GCC requires more than facilitating business transactions: it demands fostering enduring mutual trust, navigating distinct corporate governance environments, engaging with local public institutions, and respecting cultural paradigms. Across the Gulf, resilient commercial alliances are founded primarily upon strong interpersonal relationships.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates – PHOTO/Unsplash
Two autonomies destined to converge
Europe needs to solidify its strategic autonomy, while Gulf nations are diversifying their global alignments to mitigate external vulnerabilities and maximise sovereign decision-making. These two strategic trajectories are natural complements.
The regional conflict has demonstrated once again that the global order is shifting rapidly. In this emerging landscape, Europe must engage the Gulf as a comprehensive strategic partner. Europe brings innovation, regulatory integrity, and institutional strength; the Gulf offers sovereign capital reserves, transformative momentum, and an essential geostrategic position bridging global continents. Turning these complementary strengths into a durable alliance requires constant diplomatic engagement and concrete joint initiatives.
In a fragmented world, strategic autonomy is not about withdrawal, but about having the capacity to choose reliable partners to build alliances grounded in mutual respect and shared interests. The EU-Gulf partnership represents a vital arena where that future will be determined.