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Brent crude oil prices have climbed back above $90, closing Wednesday at almost $92, and settled at the highest value in nearly four weeks, as shipping-route incidents and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz sustain the geopolitical premium, said etoro analyst for Romania, Bogdan Maioreanu.
On Thursday morning the price reached $94 per barrel. Brent’s return above $90 is more than a rebound in oil prices: it is a renewed test for the global and local inflation outlook.
The latest report of the US Energy Information Administration forecasts continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which it assumed to persist through August. Most regional production is expected to recover to near pre-conflict levels only in early 2027, although around 600,000 barrels per day of disruption is forecasted to continue through the end of next year. Under this revised scenario, Brent is now expected to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, before gradually easing to an average of $69 per barrel in 2027 as inventories rebuild and most disrupted production returns by early next year.
For Romania, this might mean that we will stay in the reality of high fuel prices for longer. And this will drive up inflation. Fuel inflation had already accelerated to 16% year on year in June after peaking at 19.2% in May, following the Middle East-driven energy shock. In July 2026, it rose to close to 17%, following closely the developments in the Iran war. The National Bank of Romania in its latest Inflation Report noted that although major international institutions expect transit through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually normalise and lead to a decline in energy prices, this scenario remains vulnerable, as a “renewed conflict escalation, lingering logistical disruptions or the slow recovery of production, transport and refining capacities could prolong the impact of the energy shock”. Consequently, the NBR’s updated baseline scenario for 2026 is “a less favourable macroeconomic performance than previously anticipated, characterised by a higher inflation rate and somewhat weaker GDP dynamics.” So far, the outlook is worrisome for both consumers and politicians as Romania continues to post, month after month, the highest yearly inflation in the European Union.
At current prices, this is not yet an energy shock, but above $90 oil starts to matter well beyond the energy sector, on all sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, US 10-year inflation breakeven – the market-based measure of expected average inflation over the next decade – have risen to 2.30% from 2.24% on August 13, while 5y5y forward inflation expectations – a financial metric that measures the expected average annual rate of inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from now – are around 2.33%. Yet Fed expectations are moving in the opposite direction: the probability of no hike has increased, while odds of at least two hikes have declined.
The key question is whether Brent above $90 proves to be temporary or becomes the new normal. For the global markets, the real danger lies above $100 per barrel, where a geopolitical premium could turn into a broader stagflation concern, testing central banks’ policies, bond markets and consumer resilience at the same time. And this might bring some of the most significant external risks to investment portfolios into focus. According to the latest etoro Retail Investor Beat survey, inflation is the main external concern for their portfolios for Romanian (24%) investors, while for investors worldwide, inflation is in third place (19%), after international conflict (23%) and a potential recession of the global economy (21%). For the time being, the answer is unknown as it lies in the resolution of the volatile situation in the Gulf area.