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Holaluz: what happened to the ‘rooftop revolution’?
WashingtonThe US military seems to have found a way to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz despite the Iranian blockade. Navy ships have managed to find a corridor along the Omani coast through which some vessels are successfully navigating a route that has become highly dangerous due to Tehran’s attacks. As with so many other operations in this war, it is a success in its tactical objective, but Washington is not achieving a strategic victory. The United States is allowing some barrels of crude oil to pass through the strait, although the pre-war pace has not yet been recovered.
The mission, revealed by the New York Times and Axios, has enabled a handful of ships loaded with crude oil to cross the southern route. Before the United States and Israel jointly bombed Tehran, about 15 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait. What is interesting here, beyond how Iranian attacks are successfully evaded, is the shift in figures.
US government sources tell Axiosthat they are managing to transport about 10 million barrels a day. In contrast, maritime traffic analysts cited by the New York Times estimate that 5 million barrels manage to leave the Persian Gulf daily. Be that as it may, the markets, despite their sensitivity, have not noticed a significant difference, even though the operation has been underway for weeks.
High economic and human cost
Meanwhile, the United States Central Command (Centcom) has to use a wide variety of weaponry to intercept Iranian drones and missiles. The United States is currently deploying ships, helicopters, and planes to launch attacks and intercept them, and, according to Centcom, they have already assisted more than 1,000 vessels in passing through the strait. According to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), at least 15 ships sailing along the southern routes, near the coast of Oman, have been hit by Iranian attacks since the beginning of June, resulting in sixteen sailors injured and two dead.
The high cost is not only economic, but also human: the unease aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln of the US, which has been deployed for more than nine months, has led to an avalanche of criticism against President Donald Trump. After participating in the attack on Venezuela, the aircraft carrier traveled directly to the Middle East, where it has been deployed since the beginning of the year, and exhaustion among the crew is high. This Monday, sources from the US government confirmed that the aircraft carrier has already set sail for home.
The alternative operation of skirting the Omani coast has also become known at a time when the relationship between Muscat and Washington is once again faltering. This very week, the American president threatened to bomb Oman if it tried to interfere with his plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the Republican has been saying these days that the maritime passage is under American control – a statement that has not translated into reality – the sultanate and the Islamic Republic have been negotiating the division of control of the strait.
Besides Iran, Oman is the other country that has access to part of the waters of Hormuz. This delicate geostrategic position is also what has made Oman a key negotiator with the Iranians over all these years. Although in the failed peace talks if Pakistan adopted the singing voice, the negotiating team that gave it more credibility and strength to the process was the Omani one.