Nearly two years after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria and its partners are engaged in the business of reconstruction. Gulf states and Türkiye have secured airport, energy and telecoms deals.
The US is lobbying for oil contracts. Europe is focusing on rehabilitation and political dialogue projects. With reconstruction costs estimated at $216 billion, Syria is becoming one of the largest post-conflict investment opportunities in the world.
Since 2025, though, the government under President Ahmed al Sharaa has faced conflict in several regions. The clashes in March 2025, in which many Alawite civilians were killed, and continuing tensions in Kurdish majority areas, show that serious security challenges persist.
In this fragile context, policymakers and investors are discussing roads, housing, energy and economic growth. Yet they risk overlooking something crucial: Syria’s biggest long-term threat may not be renewed warfare, but climate change.
The country is already experiencing rising temperatures, worsening droughts and declining rainfall. Temperatures could rise by as much as 2.55°C by 2050, according to a report by adelphi, a Berlin based think tank, while more than 85 per cent of agricultural land is degraded. Last summer, we met a farmer in Salamieh, central Syria, who could not hold back his tears as he described the loss of his livestock, money and hope.
These pressures go beyond the environment. Drought and water scarcity erode harvests, rural incomes and jobs, leaving young people more vulnerable to armed groups offering money, status or protection. Climate change can deepen the grievances and insecurity that make recruitment easier.
These challenges are part of why Syria’s social contract requires ‘significant repair’, according to an Adelphi study. After fourteen years of war, Syria needs electricity, jobs and functioning infrastructure. Rebuilding quickly matters. Yet returning to pre-war systems of infrastructure could worsen Syria’s climate fragility and social divisions.
Young boys inspect the damage from a Syrian regime bombardment on a makeshift camp in near the Turkish border in Idlib province, in 2019 – OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images
Syria’s broken physical environment also creates a rare opportunity to build anew. Like post-war Germany and Japan, Syria is a relatively blank slate upon which the government and its partners can construct novel water, energy and transport structures, for example, that, designed correctly, will promote green jobs, climate resilience and trust within society.
A Green Reconstruction Plan can establish a national water system based on information and inclusivity. The Green Climate Fund’s groundbreaking USD$ 27.7 million water infrastructure investment offers a starting point. The WATER-RES project entails monitoring groundwater, repairing community water infrastructure, recycling treated water and helping farmers irrigate according to a changing climate. Its success should be judged on inclusive access to information, participation in decision-making and distribution of water supplies.
Solar energy is another area that offers opportunities. When the national grid failed during the war in Syria, communities turned to solar panels. A Green Reconstruction Plan can ramp up solar power near cities and farms for schools, businesses, clinics and water pumps. It can promote battery usage, stronger transmission lines and maintenance companies that connect communities. Syria’s plans to expand solar and wind power could reduce dependence on imported fuel while creating skilled work. These efforts would also make electricity less vulnerable to attacks on a single power station or high-voltage line during a volatile transition period.
A third element of a Green Reconstruction Plan is an economic corridor based on cleaner transport linking the Gulf and Türkiye. If the planned major road link proceeds, it could be designed for electric trucks, with charging depots powered by renewable energy that also sustain customs facilities. A railway alongside it could carry passengers and bulk freight, connect Syrian towns to regional markets and reduce pressure on the roads. Before blindly signing off on infrastructure projects, Syria must plan for the next generation of transport.
All elements of green reconstruction must be inclusive; that is, they should stem from transparent procurement, equitable employment and fair participation by communities that may perceive service provision as influenced by political allegiance. Environmental projects can deepen conflict if they exclude groups, take land without consent or control water unfairly.
The United States, Europe, Türkiye, the Gulf states and other donors should consider climate and conflict risk as central to investment due diligence. Before committing billions to Syria’s recovery, they should assess whether a proposed water network or housing development, for example, will endure extreme heat or avoid triggering social tensions.
The commercial case for climate and conflict-sensitive reconstruction is straightforward: climate disasters or renewed fighting can destroy assets, interrupt trade and leave investors with a poor return. Spending early on the right design, participation and maintenance modalities is insurance against these risks.
At a time when the costs of inaction on climate and conflict are becoming more visible by the day, a Green Reconstruction Plan that benefits all Syrian communities can deliver stability for the country now and for decades to come.
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