Tehran, Iran – Recent official data from Iran’s water sector reveals that approximately 35 million people, equivalent to one-third of the country’s total population, are suffering from a severe water shortage.

The capital, Tehran, and the city of Mashhad are among the areas most affected by this worsening crisis.

Reports indicate that the crisis has evolved beyond mere fluctuations in rainfall patterns;

it has become a structural problem linked to mismanagement and the misuse of water resources.

Rainfall indicators and the toll in affected governorates

Issa Bozorgzadeh, spokesperson for Iran’s water sector, announced that the total rainfall recorded

across the country during the current water year reached approximately 238 millimeters.

This figure is only slightly closer, by about 1%, to the average annual rainfall of 241 millimeters.

Despite this apparent similarity to the average, the geographical distribution of rainfall has shown significant and concerning variations.

The Iranian official explained that 12 provinces experienced a marked decrease in rainfall,

ranging from 12% to 37% compared to normal levels.

The affected provinces include Tehran, Qom, Markazi, Yazd, Sistan

and Baluchestan, Semnan, Isfahan, Qazvin, Alborz, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari.

Map of water deficit and the most affected cities

On the ground, official statistics indicate that 58 Iranian cities are experiencing severe drinking water shortages.

This suffering is concentrated primarily in several key centers, including the capital, Tehran, and its 22 metropolitan areas.

It is also concentrated in Alborz Province and large parts of Qazvin Province. The city of Mashhad and large areas of Khorasan Razavi Province, as well as Arak and Saveh in Markazi Province, are also affected.

The capital, Tehran, stands out as one of the most critical and alarming areas. While the overall filling rate of the country’s dams is approximately 53%,

with a total volume of 27.35 billion cubic meters, water levels in Tehran’s dams have dropped sharply to only about 26%.

The Lar Dam is the worst off, with a filling rate of only 6%, followed by the Mamlu Dam at just 13%.

In Khorasan Razavi province, despite rainfall rates about 10% higher than average,

the city of Mashhad continues to face significant water stress.

This is due to its reliance on the Dousti Dam for a major portion of its water supply.

This dam has experienced a noticeable decrease in its inflow.

Radical depletion: The crisis of the plains and the agricultural sector

The crisis extends beyond the surface to the country’s deep underground infrastructure.

According to the spokesperson for the water sector, out of 609 watersheds across Iran,

427 are classified as either under embargo or in a critical state of embargo due to continuous depletion.

In an effort to mitigate this deterioration, the Ministry of Energy has set a strategic objective within the Seventh Development Plan.

This objective aims to reduce the imbalance in water resources by 15 billion cubic meters,

of which 12 billion cubic meters are specifically allocated to reducing groundwater extraction.

Scientific studies confirm that the alarming decline in groundwater

reserves is primarily due to excessive and unsustainable exploitation.

One study documented Iran’s loss of approximately 74 cubic kilometers of groundwater reserves between 2002 and 2015,

while another indicated an annual decrease of 3.8 millimeters in groundwater recharge rates between 2002 and 2017.

The agricultural sector places the greatest strain on these scarce resources.

Research estimates that roughly 90% of Iran’s total water withdrawals are consumed exclusively in agricultural activities.

Relative improvement and ongoing structural challenges

Although the number of people affected by water scarcity has decreased this year to 35 million,

compared to approximately 65 million (two-thirds of the population)

who suffered from the crisis last year, experts emphasize that this relative improvement does not mean the danger has passed.

The continued cumulative decline in groundwater resources and their overexploitation confirm

that Iran’s water crisis is too deep-rooted to be resolved simply by a single season of natural rainfall.

Therefore, fundamental reforms to the country’s water and agricultural policies are necessary.