Iraq is seizing the moment as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reassess each member’s production capacity, seeking to sharply raise its own production quota baseline to 6 million barrels per day—a figure far exceeding both its current quota and international agencies’ estimates of its sustainable capacity.

People familiar with the matter said Iraq, the second-largest producer within the OPEC+ framework, wants future production targets to be calculated against a 6 million-barrel-per-day baseline. The people asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Iraq’s oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Under current arrangements, Iraq’s production ceiling within OPEC+ for September and October stands at 4.431 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the country’s total sustainable capacity at roughly 4.9 million barrels per day. In other words, the 6 million-barrel-per-day baseline Iraq is pursuing is not only more than 35% above its current quota but also clearly exceeds the IEA’s assessment of its current production potential.

Assessment Timeline and Market Implications

OPEC and its partners have commissioned external consulting firms to evaluate each member’s actual maximum production capacity, with the goal of aligning quotas more closely with real-world output capability. The assessment is expected to be completed by the end of this month and will be approved at the oil ministers’ meeting in late November.

The results are critical to the global oil market’s supply-demand balance. If Persian Gulf crude exports disrupted by the Iran conflict return to normal, the market could once again face oversupply pressure. The assessment also carries weight for major energy companies such as Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM), which are currently in negotiations with Iraq over returning to oil and gas development there.

Iraq’s Production Ambitions

Iraqi officials have repeatedly and publicly stated their goal of raising output. In May, Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said Iraq was in talks with OPEC about lifting production to 5 million barrels per day once the Iran conflict ends. This month, Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi went further, announcing that the country aims to raise output to roughly 10 million barrels per day by 2030.

However, Iraq’s actual current production is far below those levels due to disruptions in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran conflict. Compiled data shows the country’s average daily output in August was just 2.98 million barrels—less than 70% of its current quota.

Iraq hinted in June that it would not rule out leaving OPEC+ if it failed to secure a sufficiently high baseline quota. Such a move, if realized, would deal a major blow to the producers’ alliance born in Baghdad six decades ago—an alliance already shaken by the departure of another key Middle Eastern member, the United Arab Emirates.

Deepening Divisions Within the Alliance

OPEC+’s internal cohesion is facing multiple tests. Venezuela, another founding member, is seriously evaluating whether to exit the organization, driven by a watershed agreement with U.S. President Trump that grants the United States considerable control over some of Venezuela’s oil reserves.

If Iraq and Venezuela were to depart in succession, OPEC+ would lose two founding members, and the alliance’s production-management mechanism and market influence could be further eroded.

Data Comparison

MetricValueIraq’s current quota (Sept–Oct)4.431 million bpdIEA-estimated sustainable capacity4.9 million bpdIraq’s sought baseline6 million bpdIraq’s actual August output2.98 million bpdIraq’s 2030 target~10 million bpd

Note: Data sourced from current OPEC+ arrangements, IEA estimates, and market survey compilations.

Whether the 6 million-barrel-per-day baseline can win approval remains highly uncertain. The target would require not only support from external consultants’ capacity assessments but also unanimous consent from other member states at the November ministerial meeting. Given the sensitivity and existing divisions within OPEC+ over quota allocation, Iraq’s demands are likely to face resistance from other members.