Arguably, the most consequential election that Israel has ever faced will take place a week on Tuesday. Given the remarkable loathing that Benjamin Netanyahu evokes across the world – the Ayatollah, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping rolled into one couldn’t hold a candle to him – it’s weird how nobody seems to have noticed that he may be on the verge of being dumped by the electorate and fading into the pages of history.
Why the lack of attention? Presumably, if Netanyahu does fall, then all those critics who claim to have no problem with Israel per se but reserve unhinged levels of venom for his government will suddenly declare themselves unabashed Zionists, am I right?
But I’m getting ahead of myself. I harbour my own theory about why the upcoming elections have been so ignored, to which I’ll turn in a moment. But let’s first look at what is at stake.
Most importantly this is the first election since October 7, 2023, and according to the polling, that catastrophic day remains central to this campaign. The issue encompasses questions of existential security, the extent to which responsibility for the massacre should land on Netanyahu’s doormat (he is the only senior figure who was in office at the time who has not either apologised or resigned); and demands for a meaningful, independent inquiry, which has still not been confirmed. Almost 70 per cent of Jewish voters place this top of their list of concerns.
Secondly, voters are worried about the cost-of-living. Although Israel’s economy has been booming over the last year, with the stock market surging by 26 per cent, exports soaring by 30 per cent and the Shekel reaching record highs, people are feeling the opposite in their pockets. Economic growth has been concentrated in technology and defence, its rapidly growing population is placing housing under strain, and reservist mobilisation has devastated domestic finances.
On that note, the third major issue on voters’ minds is that of ultra-Orthodox conscription. Traditionally, this community – which tends not to believe in the modern state on religious grounds, and accounts for about 15 per cent of the population – have not been required to serve, while often living off welfare handouts. No military obligation is placed on the 20 per cent of Arab citizens, either. With the longest period of war in Israel’s history showing little sign of abating, this has become the subject of furious debate.
But the prism through which all this refracts is that of one man: Netanyahu. Not only is he facing corruption charges – though in my mind, the allegations of accepting gifts of cigars and pink champagne, and seeking to influence media coverage, pale in comparison to the behaviour of our own Government, from Lord Alli’s presents to attempts to cancel unfavourable elections in May – but he has resisted a state commission into October 7 while manoeuvring for a panel of his liking.
Moreover, as Israel uses a proportional representation system, and many centrists refuse to join Netanyahu, he has drawn his majority from the extremes; his coalition partners include ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on exemption from conscription and a handful of extremist firebrands, principally Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
In Israeli politics, the main questions are settled. After October 7, and given the persistent support for terrorism even within the more moderate Palestinian Authority – which persists, for example, in paying cash incentives to convicted terrorists, funded by public money propped up by international aid donations – nobody serious believes that a Palestinian state is viable for generations.
Similarly, nobody serious is about to argue that Israel should put a dampener on its military campaign against the Iranian-backed terrorists that menace its very existence, whether from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria or Yemen. With their children traumatised by constant dashes to bomb shelters, they don’t have the luxury of Ed Miliband-style finger-wagging, however many blue-haired students and Islamists march in London, Paris or Berlin.
Which returns me to my theory. What difference would it make to the outside world if Netanyahu’s career came crashing to a close on October 27? The two-state solution would remain elusive, despite the impotent zealot of King Charles Street; military action would, sadly enough, have to continue. Sure, the country may be less shackled to theocratic fanatics who seek to drag it into dark places. But nobody in the West cares about that, which is to say, they don’t care about the wellbeing of Israel at all.