Global headlines and water-cooler conversations have in recent weeks focused on the rising price of oil caused by Iran’s curtailment of most commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Yet there’s another commodity that has received less attention despite being capable of triggering not just economic but also major social and political upheaval: fertilizer.
In normal times, about one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through the strait. This is because the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are major producers of ammonia and of nitrogen fertilizers like urea, one of the most widely used fertilizers in the world. That production has been disrupted by the war, with global urea exports projected to drop to 1.5 million metric tons this month as a result. That is a 70 percent decline from the prewar level of 3.5 million, according to Scotiabank.
It may seem like an obscure product to focus on, but the importance of fertilizer cannot be overstated. For a stark example of what a global fertilizer shortage could engender, recall the dramatic events that roiled Sri Lanka earlier this decade.
In 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, Sri Lanka was suffering from the collapse of its tourism industry. Foreign currency reserves were running perilously low, the result not only of the health crisis but also of corruption and mismanagement by the politically dominant Rajapaksa family. That’s when President Gotabaya Rajapaksa came up with a novel, ultimately catastrophic idea for economizing on foreign exchange: He announced a sudden ban on fertilizer imports, proudly declaring that Sri Lanka would become the world’s first fully organic farming nation.
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With no time to prepare for the switch, Sri Lankan farmers saw their agricultural production plummet, with the country’s crucial tea exports taking a particular hit. Rice harvests, which had previously been sufficient to feed the population and leave enough for exports, also collapsed. As a result, food prices skyrocketed, impoverished farmers grew desperate and consumers struggled to afford necessities. Making matters worse, the country’s depleted foreign exchange reserves meant it could not import sufficient quantities of vital supplies such as fuel and medicine, making life untenable.
The government reversed the fertilizer ban within six months, but it was too late: Unstoppable political repercussions had already been set in motion. Sri Lankans took to the street in prodigious numbers, with the protests soon turning violent. The official residence of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, the president’s brother, was stormed and set on fire, while a mob invaded the lavish presidential palace, splashing around in its pool and carting off its elegant furnishings. The Rajapaksa brothers were forced to flee the country and Gotabaya emailed his resignation from abroad.
The lag between an agricultural shock and political upheaval is shorter than most people imagine. And we can already glimpse the outline of a crisis from here.
The Rajapaksas’ organic revolution had ushered in a political revolution. The recovery has taken years.
Despite its unique characteristics, Sri Lanka stands as a cautionary tale because food shortages and soaring prices have a long history of triggering revolutions, with a direct line between scarce, unaffordable food and political unrest. The 2007-2008 economic crisis triggered food riots in dozens of countries. Just a few years later, rising food prices helped trigger and fuel the Arab Spring.
This is not to say that mobs across the planet are about to riot and send presidents, prime ministers and kings fleeing into exile. But history provides ample evidence that the current spike in fertilizer prices due to the Iran war has the potential to cause enormous human suffering—and with it social and political upheaval.
Consider what has happened to the global fertilizer market since the start of the war, and bear in mind that it has roughly coincided with planting season for much of the world. About 1 million metric tons of fertilizer are currently caught in the Gulf, unable to move. In a single week, U.S. urea prices surged 32 percent. In Germany’s Lower Saxony, the price of calcium ammonium nitrate—a workhorse fertilizer for European agriculture—rose 15 percent within a month. A Michigan corn farmer who locked in nitrogen fertilizer at $350 per ton in January is now watching the price of that same product close in on $600. “We’re in uncharted territory,” he told CNBC. “It’s like a code red.”
And all of this is happening in March, a critical month in the Northern Hemisphere’s agricultural calendar, when winter wheat in particular needs its second application of nitrogen. Timing in agriculture is not negotiable the way it might be in other industries. A delayed or skipped application of fertilizer could put a dent on next autumn’s harvest, with consequences for food prices that would ripple into 2027.
The lag between an agricultural shock and political upheaval is shorter than most people imagine. And we can already glimpse the outline of a crisis from here.
War strategists, politicians and economists are weighing the significance of the situation in the Gulf with an eye on military developments and oil prices. But fertilizer supplies are still being treated like an unimportant afterthought. They should be moved up the list of priorities, as the food crisis that the current disruption in supplies will cause has the potential to inflict as much political damage as fuel shortages and falling approval ratings, as well as more human suffering to boot.
Frida Ghitis is WPR’s senior columnist and a contributor to CNN and The Washington Post. Her WPR column appears every Thursday. You can follow her on Twitter and Threads at @fridaghitis.
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