Curiously, while almost all China-flagged vessels have chosen not to attempt transit, a Marshall Islands–flagged cargo ship named Iron Maiden invoked Chinese identity in an apparent effort to get through the strait unscathed. In an incident reported by Bloomberg, the ship changed its AIS destination to read “CHINA OWNER” just before it passed through the strait in the early morning of March 5.

Friends Like These

These developments showcase a divergence in strategic priorities between China and Iran, with Beijing’s calls to keep traffic flowing through the strait running directly counter to Tehran’s declared aims of shutting down energy exports from the region. It should come as no surprise that, given the existential threat they face, Iran’s leaders are putting the regime’s survival above Beijing’s desires for global energy stability.

Still, it is possible that Iranian officials could consider quietly granting Chinese ships a green light to continue operating through the strait, particularly if the conflict drags on for weeks or months. Such assurances could even be used as a bargaining chip to encourage China to take more concrete action to support the Iranian regime. Reporting by Reuters on March 5 suggests that talks between Iranian and Chinese officials on an arrangement to allow tankers safe passage through the strait are actively underway.

Yet, even if with such assurances in hand, Chinese operators would be bold to risk transiting an active warzone, especially given the Iranian military’s targeting of energy hubs in the strait, such as the United Arab Emirates’ port of Fujairah and Oman’s Duqm port. Skyrocketing insurance premiums for shippers also heavily discourage taking such risks, with most insurers canceling war risk coverage altogether.

Ultimately, while Beijing and Tehran may be strategically aligned on certain issues, it would seem difficult for that concord to translate into better access to the Persian Gulf for Chinese ships as long as strikes continue in the region surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If the intensity of operations falls in the coming days or weeks, however, it could create a more hospitable environment for such an arrangement.

Looking Ahead

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has global implications. As a critical chokepoint for the world’s oil and LNG, a sustained halt on maritime traffic through the strait would strain global supply chains and put pressure on energy prices. Major Asian economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea could be especially affected, as over 80 percent of oil and LNG transiting the strait is bound for Asia.

While China is by far the largest single destination for these energy flows, it may be better positioned than its neighbors to weather short-term price shocks. China has stockpiled significant amounts of crude oil over the past year, and it has room to substitute Middle Eastern oil with alternative energy sources such as LNG and coal to insulate its economy.

Still, China is far from immune from mounting costs of critical trade disruptions rippling through the global economy. On March 5, Beijing directed its oil refiners to halt fuel exports, in a sign of growing unease. If the conflict drags on for weeks or months (as President Trump has indicated it could) and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, China may begin putting more active pressure on all actors involved to bring hostilities to a close.

Harrison Prétat is deputy director and fellow with the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Monica Michiko Sato is a research associate for the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at CSIS. Aidan Powers-Riggs is an associate fellow for China Studies with the iDeas Lab at CSIS. Matthew P. Funaiole is vice president of the iDeas Lab, Andreas C. Dracopoulos Chair in Innovation, and senior fellow in the China Power Project at CSIS.