The softening of container shipping rates on the European trades should not be read as a sign that the market is returning to normal, Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta highlights.
According to Peter Sand, conflict in the Middle East forced carriers to build entirely new service networks with little to no warning, including rerouting via land bridges such as Jeddah and alternative ports on the Indian Ocean coastline.
As explained, on the European ocean container shipping trades, these new routing patterns are now established and carriers have reorganised capacity, meaning freight rates are easing from the spike in the immediate aftermath of conflict.
Compared to one month ago, average spot rates from Far East are down −6% to North Europe and -13% to Mediterranean. In an exclusive interview to SAFETY4SEA, Peter Sand also highlighted how a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026 is now off the table.
The softening on the European trades should not be read as a sign that the market is returning to normal. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to container shipping, the ceasefire is fragile, and, while the alternative routing arrangements that carriers have put in place are stabilizing supply chains, they are still costly workarounds.
Until there is greater assurance of safe and free passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the underlying drivers of disruption – longer transit times, reduced schedule reliability, congestion at alternative hubs, and elevated surcharges – will continue to hold freight rates above pre-crisis levels.
…Peter Sand highlighted.
Furthermore, on US-bound trades from the Far East, freight rates are still elevated from one month ago as disruption in the Middle East continues to have a cascading effect through Southeast Asian transshipment hubs. Shippers moving cargo to the US via these hubs are paying the price for bottlenecks created thousands of miles away.
Far East to US West Coast spot rates are also up 22% over the past month, while Far East to US East Coast is up 19%. Even the Transatlantic from North Europe to US East Coast – which does not call at Asia transshipment hubs or Middle East ports – has surged 46% compared to one month ago.
The crisis is still very much present – it has simply migrated from the regional to the global.
Carriers are actively managing capacity to prevent rates from falling freely on the European trades while also keeping the US-bound trades tight. Four of the five major fronthaul trades saw capacity decline this week, with Far East to North Europe down 6.6%. That combination of crisis-driven congestion and deliberate supply management is why rates remain elevated across the board, even where the direct impact of the conflict should be limited.
…Sand concluded.