Negotiations between the United States and Iran began on 11 April in Islamabad after a 12-day ceasefire came into effect between the warring parties—the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan. The aim of both the ceasefire and the talks was to work out the conditions for ending the war. However, after a promising start, the negotiations quickly broke down due to a lack of trust between the parties and deep differences in their respective demands.
Three main issues have proven to be the most contentious: the Strait of Hormuz; the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium; and compensation for damages caused by US and Israeli strikes. Before the 21 April deadline expired, Donald Trump, at Pakistan’s request, extended the ceasefire indefinitely until Iran presents a ‘unified position’ regarding the negotiations. Washington’s flexibility on the ceasefire could be a reason for cautious optimism, while Tehran has reportedly put forward a proposal that may address the most disputed issues.
Iran’s proposal to the United States prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, while postponing nuclear negotiations to a later stage. Tehran has 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity—a short technical step away from weapons-grade levels—with no clear peaceful application.
The Iranian offer came in the midst of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Oman and then Islamabad for consultations, after which he travelled to St Petersburg to discuss bilateral relations including the ending of the war.
The US Blockade Had Its Effect
Iran’s willingness to compromise has been driven by Donald Trump’s decision to impose a US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Iran is unable to conduct trade through this key maritime route, including selling its own oil, which had been one of the last remaining sources of revenue for the struggling Iranian economy.
‘When you have vast amounts of oil pouring through your system…if for any reason this line is closed because you can’t put it into containers or ships…what happens is that line explodes from within…They say they only have about three days before that happens,’ Trump told Fox News.
The new proposal—delivered to the United States via Pakistani mediators—focuses primarily on resolving the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz and the issue of the US blockade. As part of this, the ceasefire would be further extended to facilitate continued negotiations. Nuclear talks would only begin at a later stage, after the strait is reopened and the US blockade is lifted. The White House has received the proposal, but it is unclear whether it will consider it.
‘These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the U.S. will not negotiate through the press. As the president has said, the United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon,’ White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told Axios.
Global Chokepoint
The narrow maritime chokepoint seems to be Iran’s most powerful lever—not only against its military adversaries, but against the global economy itself. Tehran appears to have concluded during last year’s 12-day war that it cannot defeat the world’s two most advanced militaries on the battlefield. Economically, however, it can make the war extremely costly for everyone. Its primary tool for doing so is disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has escalated its actions step by step. It began by threatening to close the strait, then fired on several commercial vessels, and has now reportedly deployed underwater mines in the area.
‘The narrow maritime chokepoint seems to be Iran’s most powerful lever—not only against its military adversaries, but against the global economy itself’
Energy shipments have effectively ground to a halt along one of the world’s most strategically important trade routes, through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade normally passes. Oil and gas producers along the Persian Gulf are struggling to deliver their resources to international markets, removing roughly 8 million barrels of oil per day from global supply. At the same time, disrupted export routes and direct Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure have forced several Gulf states to curb production. Qatar, for example, has shut down the world’s largest LNG liquefaction facility.
Brent crude prices briefly surged above $110 as the highest point since the war broke out. Before the war began, oil was trading at roughly $60 per barrel. In response, the 32 member states of the International Energy Agency have agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, while the United States has temporarily lifted certain sanctions on Russian oil exports. Even so, the situation represents one of the most significant disruptions to global energy supply since the oil crises of the 1970s.
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